Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome
Open accessAbstract
Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3°C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Changing vegetation diversity, abundance, composition, and phenology in the Arctic are well documented.
“Changing vegetation diversity, abundance, composition, and phenology in the Arctic are all well documented (Sturm et al. 2001; Walker et al. 2006; Bjørkman et al. 2020).”
From Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future (2020) · cites this paper as Walker et al. 2006
Cites
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Parmesan, C., & Yohe, G. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01286 · Cited by 11,265 · see citing works
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., & Bairlein, F. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/416389a · Cited by 9,975 · see citing works
Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100
Sala, O. E., Stuart Chapin, F., III, Armesto, J. J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Huber-Sanwald, E., Huenneke, L. F., Jackson, R. B., et al. (2000) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770 · Cited by 9,280 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991
Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., & Nemani, R. (1997) · Nature · doi:10.1038/386698a0 · Cited by 3,448 · see citing works
GCTE-NEWS, Rustad, L. E., Campbell, J. L., Marion, G. M., Norby, R. J., Mitchell, M. J., Hartley, A. E., Cornelissen, J. H. C., & Gurevitch, J. (2001) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s004420000544 · Cited by 2,187 · see citing works
Plant Strategies, Vegetation Processes, and Ecosystem Properties
Grime, J. P. (2001) · Cited by 2,087 · see citing works
Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment
Serreze, M. C., Walsh, J. E., Chapin, F. S., Osterkamp, T. E., Dyurgerov, M. B., Romanovsky, V. E., Oechel, W. C., Morison, J. H., Zhang, T., & Barry, R. G. (2000) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1023/a:1005504031923 · Cited by 1,910 · see citing works
Responses of Arctic Tundra to Experimental and Observed Changes in Climate
Chapin, F. S., Shaver, G. R., Giblin, A. E., Nadelhoffer, K. J., & Laundre, J. A. (1995) · Ecology · doi:10.2307/1939337 · Cited by 1,411 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35079180 · Cited by 1,349 · see citing works
Arctic Environmental Change of the Last Four Centuries
Overpeck, J. T., Hughen, K. A., Hardy, D. R., Bradley, R. S., Case, R. A., Douglas, M. S. V., Finney, B. P., Gajewski, K., Jacoby, G. C., JENNINGS, A. E., et al. (1997) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1251 · Cited by 1,047 · see citing works
Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Acia (2004) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · Cited by 1,026 · see citing works
Ecosystem carbon loss with woody plant invasion of grasslands.
Jackson, R. B., Banner, J. L., Jobbágy, E. G., Pockman, W. T., & Wall, D. H. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature00910 · Cited by 1,007 · see citing works
Open‐top designs for manipulating field temperature in high‐latitude ecosystems
Marion, G. M., Henry, G. H. R., Freckman, D. W., et al. (1997) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.1997.gcb136.x · Cited by 756 · see citing works
Self-citationArctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system
Chapin, F. S., McGUIRE, A. D., Randerson, J. T., Pielke, R. A., Baldocchi, D., Hobbie, S. E., Roulet, N. T., Werner Eugster, A., Kasischke, E. S., Rastetter, E. B., et al. (2000) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.06022.x · Cited by 608 · see citing works
Shifting Dominance Within a Montane Vegetation Community: Results of a Climate-Warming Experiment
Harte, J., & Shaw, R. (1995) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.267.5199.876 · Cited by 530 · see citing works
Feedbacks between climate and boreal forests during the Holocene epoch
Foley, J. A., Kutzbach, J. E., Coe, M. T., & Levis, S. (1994) · Nature · doi:10.1038/371052a0 · Cited by 510 · see citing works
Arnqvist, G. (1998) · The Quarterly Review of Biology · doi:10.1086/420179 · Cited by 474 · see citing works
Eviner, V. T., & Chapin, F. S. (2003) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132342 · Cited by 474 · see citing works
Tundra plants and climate change: the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX)
Henry, G. H. R., & Molau, U. (1997) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.1997.gcb132.x · Cited by 441 · see citing works
Self-citationCornelissen, J. H. C., Callaghan, T. V., Alatalo, J. M., Michelsen, A., Graglia, E., Hartley, A. E., Hik, D. S., Hobbie, S. E., Press, M. C., Robinson, C. H., et al. (2001) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2001.00625.x · Cited by 426 · see citing works
Self-citationArctic and alpine biodiversity: patterns, causes and ecosystem consequences
Chapin, F. S., & Körner, C. (1994) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/0169-5347(94)90266-6 · Cited by 398 · see citing works
van Wijk, M. T., Clemmensen, K. E., Shaver, G. R., Williams, M., Callaghan, T. V., Chapin, F. S., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Gough, L., Hobbie, S. E., Jonasson, S., et al. (2003) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2003.00719.x · Cited by 379 · see citing works
Self-citationCornelissen, J. H. C., Callaghan, T. V., Alatalo, J. M., Michelsen, A., Graglia, E., Hartley, A. E., Hik, D. S., Hobbie, S. E., Press, M. C., Robinson, C. H., et al. (2001) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2745.2001.00625.x · Cited by 358 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change in the Arctic: using plant functional types in a meta‐analysis of field experiments
Dormann, C. F., & Woodin, S. J. (2002) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.0269-8463.2001.00596.x · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Wahren, C.-H., Walker, M. D., & Bret-Harte, M. S. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00927.x · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Self-citationWookey, P. A., Parsons, A. N., Welker, J. M., Potter, J. A., Callaghan, T. V., LEE, J. A., & Press, M. C. (1993) · Oikos · doi:10.2307/3545361 · Cited by 270 · see citing works
Self-citationHollister, R. D., Webber, P. J., & Tweedie, C. E. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00926.x · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Self-citationBiotic validation of small open‐top chambers in a tundra ecosystem
Hollister, R. D., & Webber, P. J. (2000) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00363.x · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Self-citationCO2 exchange in three Canadian High Arctic ecosystems: response to long‐term experimental warming
Welker, J. M., Fahnestock, J. T., Henry, G. H. R., O'Dea, K. W., & Chimner, R. A. (2004) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00857.x · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal Change and Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems
(1997) · Ecological studies · doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-2240-8 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Robinson, C. H., Wookey, P. A., Parsons, A. N., et al. (1995) · Oikos · doi:10.2307/3545996 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Self-citationMetaWin: Statistical Software for Meta-analysis with Resampling Tests
Adams, D. C., Gurevitch, J., & Rosenburg, M. S. (1997) · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Succession in Marginal Arctic Environments
Svoboda, J., & Henry, G. H. R. (1987) · Arctic and Alpine Research · doi:10.2307/1551402 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Self-citationBiotic feedbacks in the global climatic system: will the warming feed the warming?
(1995) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.33-1587 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Variable sensitivity of plant communities in Iceland to experimental warming
Jónsdóttir, I. S., Magnússon, B., Guðmundsson, J., Elmarsdóttir, Á., & Hjartarson, H. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00928.x · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Self-citationBiotic Feedbacks in the Global Climatic System
(1995) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195086409.001.0001 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Patterns and Causes of Arctic Plant Community Diversity
Walker, M. D. (1995) · Ecological studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-78966-3_1 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationResponse of tundra ecosystem in southwestern Alaska to Younger‐Dryas climatic oscillation
Hu, F. S., Lee, B., Kaufman, D. S., Yoneji, S., NELSON, D. M., & Henne, P. D. (2002) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00550.x · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Responses of carbon and nitrogen concentrations in high arctic plants to experimental warming
Tolvanen, A., & Henry, G. H. R. (2001) · Canadian Journal of Botany · doi:10.1139/b01-052 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Self-citationScenarios of Biodiversity Changes in Arctic and Alpine Tundra
Walker, M. D., Gould, W. A., & Chapin, F. S. (2001) · Ecological studies · doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-0157-8_5 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Inupiat and Arctic Alaska: An Ethnography of Development
Ellanna, L. J., & Chance, N. A. (1991) · Arctic and Alpine Research · doi:10.2307/1551451 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Mutai, C. (2000) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013
Quesada (2001) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities
Myers-Smith, I. H., Forbes, B. C., Wilmking, M., Hallinger, M., Lantz, T., Blok, D., Tape, K. D., Macias-Fauria, M., Sass-Klaassen, U., Lévesque, E., et al. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509 · Cited by 1,485 · see citing works
Self-citationOpposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores
Post, E., & Pedersen, C. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0802421105 · Cited by 491 · see citing works
Uses and misuses of meta‐analysis in plant ecology
Koricheva, J., & Gurevitch, J. (2014) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12224 · Cited by 460 · see citing works
Mesocosm Experiments as a Tool for Ecological Climate-Change Research
Stewart, R. I. A., Dossena, M., Bohan, D. A., Jeppesen, E., Kordas, R. L., Ledger, M. E., Meerhoff, M., Moss, B., Mulder, C., Shurin, J. B., et al. (2013) · Advances in Ecological Research · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-417199-2.00002-1 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring
Bjorkman, A. D., García Criado, M., Myers-Smith, I. H., Ravolainen, V., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Westergaard, K. B., Lawler, J. P., Aronsson, M., Bennett, B., Gardfjell, H., et al. (2020) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01161-6 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Self-citationMuskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future
Cuyler, C., Rowell, J., Adamczewski, J., Anderson, M., Blake, J., Bretten, T., Brodeur, V., Campbell, M., Checkley, S. L., Cluff, H. D., et al. (2020) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01205-x · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Mod, H. K., & Luoto, M. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124028 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Four decades of plant community change in the Alpine tundra of southwest Yukon, Canada
Danby, R. K., Koh, S., Hik, D. S., & Price, L. W. (2011) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0172-2 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
- Authors
- Walker, M. D., Wahren, C. H., Hollister, R. D., Henry, G. H. R., Ahlquist, L. E., Alatalo, J. M., Bret-Harte, M. S., Calef, M. P., Callaghan, T. V., Carroll, A. B., Epstein, H. E., Jónsdóttir, I. S., Klein, J. A., Magnússon, B., Molau, U., Oberbauer, S. F., Rewa, S. P., Robinson, C. H., Shaver, G. R., Suding, K. N., Thompson, C. C., Tolvanen, A., Totland, Ø., Turner, P. L., Tweedie, C. E., Webber, P. J., & Wookey, P. A.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- Corresponding author
- Henry, Greg H. R.
- ORCID
- Hollister, Robert D.
- Henry, Greg H. R.
- Alatalo, Juha M.
- Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
- Calef, Monika P.
- Callaghan, Terry V.
- Epstein, Howard E.
- Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.
- Klein, Julia A.
- Molau, Ulf
- Oberbauer, Steven F.
- Robinson, Clare H.
- Shaver, Gaius R.
- Suding, Katharine N.
- Tolvanen, Anne
- Tweedie, Craig E.
- Wookey, Philip A.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2006-01-20
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1342-1346
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC1360515
- OpenAlex
- W2167746920
- Cited by
- 1,310
- References
- 43
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 76 · 2019: 66 · 2018: 60 · 2017: 77 · 2016: 83 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 88 · 2013: 93 · 2012: 90
- FWCI
- 31.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Stirling Online Research Repository (University of Stirling) (submittedVersion)
- ScholarWorks - GVSU (Grand Valley State University) (submittedVersion)
- Open Access Server of the Woods Hole Scientific Community (Woods Hole Scientific Community) (submittedVersion)
- Jukuri (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)) (submittedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Academy of Finland
- Norges Forskningsråd
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Polar Research and Ecology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- tundra, experimental warming, global warming, plant community response, shrub expansion, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, mosses and lichens, species diversity, species evenness, International Tundra Experiment, passive warming
- MeSH terms
- Arctic Regions, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environment, Environmental Monitoring, Hot Temperature, Models, Theoretical, Plants, Software, Temperature, Genetic Variation, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Biomass, Biodiversity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review