Cited by 153Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchAlzheimer's disease research and treatmentsMenopause: Health Impacts and Treatments

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Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia

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Fang, Michael, Hu, Jiaqi, Weiss, Jordan, Knopman, David S., Albert, Marilyn, Windham, B. Gwen, Walker, Keenan A., Sharrett, A. Richey, Gottesman, Rebecca F., Lutsey, Pamela L., Mosley, Thomas, Selvin, Elizabeth, Coresh, Josef·2025·Nature Medicine

DOI 10.1038/s41591-024-03340-9PMC PMC12305800

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Abstract

Understanding the lifetime risk of dementia can inform public health planning and improve patient engagement in prevention. Using data from a community-based, prospective cohort study (n = 15,043; 26.9% Black race, 55.1% women and 30.8% with at least one apolipoprotein E4 (APOE ε4) allele), we estimated the lifetime risk of dementia (from age 55 years to 95 years), with mortality treated as a competing event. We applied lifetime risk estimates to US Census projections to evaluate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060. The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years was 42% (95% confidence interval: 41-43). Rates were substantially higher in women, Black adults and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from approximately 45% to 60% in these populations. The number of US adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060. The relative growth in new dementia cases was especially pronounced for Black adults. These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity.

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Authors: Fang, M., Hu, J., Weiss, J., Knopman, D. S., Albert, M., Windham, B. G., Walker, K. A., Sharrett, A. R., Gottesman, R. F., Lutsey, P. L., Mosley, T., Selvin, E., & Coresh, J.
Affiliations: Johns Hopkins University (US)
New York University (US)
Mayo Clinic (US)
Johns Hopkins Medicine (US)
University of Mississippi Medical Center (US)
National Institutes of Health (US)
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (US)
University of Minnesota (US)
Corresponding author: Coresh, Josef
ORCID: Fang, Michael
Hu, Jiaqi
Weiss, Jordan
Knopman, David S.
Albert, Marilyn
Windham, B. Gwen
Walker, Keenan A.
Gottesman, Rebecca F.
Lutsey, Pamela L.
Mosley, Thomas
Selvin, Elizabeth
Coresh, Josef
Venue: Nature Medicine
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2025-01-13
Volume: 31
Issue: 3
Pages: 772-776
ISSN: 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
1546-170X
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-024-03340-9
PMC: PMC12305800
OpenAlex: W4406308228
Cited by: 153
References: 44
Citations by year: 2026: 90 · 2025: 62
FWCI: 102.27
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/text-and-data-mining (tdm)
www.springernature.com/gp/researchers/text-and-data-mining (vor)
Locations: Nature Medicine (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (R01AG054787)
National Institutes of Health (75N92022D00004, 75N92022D00005, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00001, 5u01hl096899-08, 5u01hl096902-08, 75N92022D00002, U01HL096899, U01 HL096902)
National Institute on Aging (RF1AG074044, 75N92022D00001, 75N92022D00004, U01HL096899, U01 HL096902, R01AG054787, 75N92022D00005, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00002, R01AG074044, P30AG066507)
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K24HL152440, HL152440, 75N92022D00002, U01HL096814, 75N92022D00005, U01-HL-096899, U01-HL-096902, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00004, U01HL096917, 75N92022D00001, U01HL096812)
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (K01DK138273)
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00001, U01HL096899, 75N92022D00002, U01 HL096902, 75N92022D00004, 75N92022D00005)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
Keywords: dementia, lifetime risk, APOE ε4, sex differences, racial disparities, Black people, healthy aging, health equity
MeSH terms: White, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Black or African American, Dementia, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Incidence, Cost of Illness, Apolipoprotein E4

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