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Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia
Open accessAbstract
Understanding the lifetime risk of dementia can inform public health planning and improve patient engagement in prevention. Using data from a community-based, prospective cohort study (n = 15,043; 26.9% Black race, 55.1% women and 30.8% with at least one apolipoprotein E4 (APOE ε4) allele), we estimated the lifetime risk of dementia (from age 55 years to 95 years), with mortality treated as a competing event. We applied lifetime risk estimates to US Census projections to evaluate the annual number of incident dementia cases from 2020 to 2060. The lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 years was 42% (95% confidence interval: 41-43). Rates were substantially higher in women, Black adults and APOE ε4 carriers, with lifetime risks ranging from approximately 45% to 60% in these populations. The number of US adults who will develop dementia each year was projected to increase from approximately 514,000 in 2020 to approximately 1 million in 2060. The relative growth in new dementia cases was especially pronounced for Black adults. These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity.
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“with lifetime dementia risk reaching 48% for women and 35% for men after age 55”
From Review of Artificial Intelligence for Clinical Use in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (2026) · cites this paper as [3]
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“U.S. cases projected to double by 2060 to 1 million annually.3”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Fang, M., Hu, J., Weiss, J., Knopman, D. S., Albert, M., Windham, B. G., Walker, K. A., Sharrett, A. R., Gottesman, R. F., Lutsey, P. L., Mosley, T., Selvin, E., & Coresh, J.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- New York University (US)
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- Johns Hopkins Medicine (US)
- University of Mississippi Medical Center (US)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Corresponding author
- Coresh, Josef
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2025-01-13
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 772-776
- ISSN
- 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-170X
- PMC
- PMC12305800
- OpenAlex
- W4406308228
- Cited by
- 153
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 90 · 2025: 62
- FWCI
- 102.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (R01AG054787)
- National Institutes of Health (75N92022D00004, 75N92022D00005, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00001, 5u01hl096899-08, 5u01hl096902-08, 75N92022D00002, U01HL096899, U01 HL096902)
- National Institute on Aging (RF1AG074044, 75N92022D00001, 75N92022D00004, U01HL096899, U01 HL096902, R01AG054787, 75N92022D00005, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00002, R01AG074044, P30AG066507)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K24HL152440, HL152440, 75N92022D00002, U01HL096814, 75N92022D00005, U01-HL-096899, U01-HL-096902, 75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00004, U01HL096917, 75N92022D00001, U01HL096812)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (K01DK138273)
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (75N92022D00003, 75N92022D00001, U01HL096899, 75N92022D00002, U01 HL096902, 75N92022D00004, 75N92022D00005)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Menopause: Health Impacts and Treatments
- Keywords
- dementia, lifetime risk, APOE ε4, sex differences, racial disparities, Black people, healthy aging, health equity
- MeSH terms
- White, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Black or African American, Dementia, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Incidence, Cost of Illness, Apolipoprotein E4
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