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Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs
Open accessAbstract
We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.
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Electricity demand is likely to increase in summer in many European countries because of a growing demand for cooling.
“Similarly, electricity demand is likely to increase in summer in many European countries because of a growing demand for cooling109.”
From Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe (2026) · cites this paper as [109]
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Long-duration electricity storage needs for coping with Dunkelflaute events in Europe
Kittel, M., Roth, A., & Schill, W.-P. (2026) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-026-72681-5 · Cited by 20
Metadata
- Authors
- Colelli, F. P., Wing, I. S., & Cian, E. D.
- Affiliations
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Colelli, Francesco Pietro
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2023-03-17
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4413-4413
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10023814
- OpenAlex
- W4327698548
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 38 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 10
- FWCI
- 19.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- OpenBU (Boston University) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- ARCA (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Research Council (756194)
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (681228)
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE-SC0016162)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building Energy and Comfort Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- electricity demand, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, heat exposure, CO2 emissions, SSP5-8.5, Europe, India, income groups, demand decomposition, behavioral adaptation
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