Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change
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Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25–58% (11–27%), on top of a factor 1.7–2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand.
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Global energy demand is projected to increase nearly 50% by 2050 compared to 2020, with developing nations driving almost half of this growth.
“Overall, global energy demand is projected to increase nearly 50% by 2050 compared to 2020, with developing nations driving almost half of this growth (Fig. 3) as rising populations and GDP improve living standards and energy access [26, 164].”
From Biofuel production: exploring renewable energy solutions for a greener future (2024) · cites this paper as [164]
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- Authors
- van Ruijven, B. J., De Cian, E., & Sue Wing, I.
- ORCID
- van Ruijven, Bas J.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2019-06-24
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 2762-2762
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6591298
- OpenAlex
- W2950990727
- Cited by
- 648
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 114 · 2025: 134 · 2024: 112 · 2023: 103 · 2022: 77 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 57.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- ARCA (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1240507, 1243095)
- U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0016162, DESC0005171)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- European Commission (HORIZON2020)
- Office of Science (DESC0005171, DESC0016162)
- Ames Research Center
- Biological and Environmental Research (DE-SC0016162, DE-SC0005171)
- H2020 European Research Council (756194)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Keywords
- energy demand, climate change, temperature rise, socio-economic scenarios, Earth system models, population projections, income growth, climate change adaptation, low-income countries
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