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Cited by 1,064Climate Change and Health ImpactsClimate Change Policy and EconomicsClimate Change and Environmental Impact

Climate change, mortality, and adaptation: Evidence from annual fluctuations in weather in the US

Open access
Deschênes, Olivier, Greenstone, Michael·2011·American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
DOI 10.1257/app.3.4.152
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Abstract

Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to “business as usual” climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations. (JEL I12, Q41, Q54)

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Crossref · 10.1257/app.3.4.152

Cites

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  • The estimates are robust to using the full distribution of daily maximum temperatures over the period.

    “SI Appendix , Fig. S5 and Table S3 shows that results are robust to using the full distribution of daily maximum temperatures over the period (63).”

    From Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change (2018) · cites this paper as [63]

    Section III (Data Sources and Summary Statistics; page unavailable) says the paper models the full distribution of daily mean temperatures. Section A (Estimates of the Impact of Temperature on Mortality; page unavailable) reports robustness across alternative specifications, but our copy does not show a robustness test using the full distribution of daily maximum temperatures. The cited paper therefore supports the distribution-based approach, not the specific maximum-temperature robustness claim. (LLM, conf=0.83)

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  • Above a moderate threshold, damage is an increasing convex function of temperature.

    “Evidence suggests that above a moderate threshold damage is an increasing convex function of temperature, i.e., a 1° temperature increase causes more damage at higher temperatures48–51.”

    From Disproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities (2021) · cites this paper as [49]

    In “Estimates of the Impact of Temperature on Mortality Based on Annual Data” (page unavailable), the paper reports a flattened U-shaped relationship: mortality risk is higher at hot extremes than at moderate temperatures. It does not establish that each 1° increase causes progressively more damage; “Econometric Strategy” (page unavailable) says the primary model assigns equal impacts to all days above 90°F. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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  • Health impacts of summer heat exposure are likely nonlinear, i.e., incremental increases in environmental heat load may lead to disproportionately higher risk.

    “Recognizing that health impacts of summer heat exposure are likely to be nonlinear48–51, i.e., incremental increases in environmental heat load may lead to disproportionately higher risk47”

    From Disproportionate exposure to urban heat island intensity across major US cities (2021) · cites this paper as [49]

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. [2]2. Gary D. Libecap and Richard H. Steckel, 311-42. Chi- cago: University of Chicago Press.
  2. [12]12. Deschênes, Olivier, and Michael Greenstone. 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evi- dence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US: Dataset." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.3.4.152.
  3. [17]17. Grossman, Michael. 2000. "The Human Capital Model." In handbook of health Economics, Vol. 1A, ed.
  4. [18]18. Anthony J. Culyer and Joseph P. Newhouse, 347-408. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, North- Holland.
  5. [34]34. Stern, Nicholas. 2007. The Economics of change: The stern review. Cambridge University Press.

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Related

Authors
Deschênes, O., & Greenstone, M.
Affiliations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
  • Brookings Institution (US)
ORCID
Venue
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2011-10-01
Volume
3
Issue
4
Pages
152-185
ISSN
  • 1945-7782 (ISSN-L)
  • 1945-7790
DOI
10.1257/app.3.4.152
OpenAlex
W3124787586
Cited by
1,064
References
50
Citations by year
2026: 51 · 2025: 105 · 2024: 116 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 108 · 2021: 109 · 2020: 86 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 67 · 2017: 48 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 19
FWCI
22.45
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
public-domain
Locations
  • American Economic Journal Applied Economics (publishedVersion, public-domain)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords
climate change, mortality, household energy consumption, temperature effects, climate change adaptation, age-adjusted mortality, United States

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