Structural error asymmetry and harm-weighted analysis of ChatGPT versus ICU Physicians in acid–base interpretation: a prospective observational study
Open accessAbstract
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated potential in clinical reasoning tasks; however, their performance in real-world intensive care unit (ICU) acid–base interpretation remains insufficiently characterized, particularly in complex and mixed disorders. Most existing evaluations rely primarily on aggregate accuracy metrics without examining structural error patterns or the clinical severity of misclassification. In high-acuity ICU settings, under-recognition of physiological complexity may carry disproportionate safety implications. In this prospective observational study, arterial blood gas (ABG) data from 50 consecutive ICU patients were interpreted independently by ICU physicians and ChatGPT using a standardized prompt. Interpretations were harmonized into six predefined diagnostic categories and compared with a final reference diagnosis established by a blinded expert panel. Agreement was assessed using Cohen’s kappa and diagnostic accuracy metrics. Additional analyses included complexity-stratified evaluation, mixed-disorder sensitivity, multi-label component-level (metabolic and respiratory) detection, false reassurance risk assessment, harm-weighted misclassification modeling, bootstrap confidence intervals, and post-hoc power analysis. Overall categorical accuracy was 82% for ICU physicians and 72% for ChatGPT. Agreement was substantial in both groups (κ = 0.73 vs. 0.63). Paired comparison did not demonstrate a statistically significant difference in overall classification ( p = 0.267), and post-hoc power analysis indicated limited ability to detect modest effect sizes (power = 0.22). However, stratified analyses revealed clinically meaningful structural differences. Sensitivity for mixed acid–base disorders was 0.96 for ICU physicians and 0.63 for ChatGPT. ChatGPT uniquely classified 16.7% of mixed cases as normal (false reassurance), whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications. Component-level analysis demonstrated lower respiratory component sensitivity for ChatGPT (0.88 vs. 1.00), contributing to under-recognition of physiological complexity. Harm-weighted misclassification modeling showed significantly higher clinical severity of errors for ChatGPT (mean difference 0.12; 95% CI 0.032–0.220; p = 0.026). While aggregate diagnostic agreement appeared broadly comparable, complexity-stratified and harm-weighted analyses demonstrated asymmetric error patterns with potential safety implications. These findings do not establish clinical equivalence and suggest that evaluation of AI diagnostic tools in critical care should extend beyond overall accuracy to incorporate safety-oriented and harm-weighted assessment frameworks.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In a prospective single-center ICU cohort of 50 patients, ChatGPT and ICU physicians had broadly comparable overall acid–base diagnostic accuracy (72% vs. 82%), but stratified analyses showed asymmetric error patterns. ChatGPT missed mixed disorders more often and produced false-normal classifications, with significantly higher harm-weighted error scores.
Key findings
- Overall categorical accuracy was 82% (41/50) for ICU physicians and 72% (36/50) for ChatGPT; agreement was substantial (κ = 0.73 vs. 0.63), and the paired difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.267; post-hoc power = 0.22).
- Mixed acid–base disorder sensitivity was 0.96 (23/24) for ICU physicians vs. 0.63 (15/24) for ChatGPT; ChatGPT classified 16.7% (4/24) of mixed cases as normal, while ICU physicians produced 0/24 false-normal classifications.
- Component-level sensitivity was lower for ChatGPT for respiratory components (0.88 vs. 1.00) and slightly lower for metabolic components (0.89 vs. 0.97).
- Harm-weighted misclassification scores were higher for ChatGPT (mean 0.184 vs. 0.064; mean difference 0.12; 95% CI 0.032–0.220; p = 0.026).
Methods
- Single-center prospective observational study in an adult ICU; 50 consecutive eligible patients enrolled August–September 2025, with the first qualifying ABG sample per patient included.
- Each case was interpreted independently by ICU physicians and ChatGPT (GPT-4o via web interface with a standardized prompt), then compared with a final reference diagnosis from a blinded expert panel; diagnoses were harmonized into six predefined categories.
- Analyses included Cohen’s kappa, McNemar’s test, complexity stratification, mixed-disorder sensitivity, multi-label metabolic/respiratory component detection, false reassurance assessment, harm-weighted misclassification modeling with Wilcoxon signed-rank testing and bootstrap confidence intervals, and post-hoc power analysis.
Limitations
- The paper states that n = 50 limits precision of subgroup estimates, ChatGPT outputs lacked calibrated uncertainty/probabilistic confidence estimates, and the single-center design may limit generalizability.
- The paper states that granular internal GPT model version identifiers and backend update logs were unavailable, and that the expert-panel reference standard may introduce subjectivity compared with a fully protocolized algorithmic standard.
- The paper states that it evaluated single time-point case-based assessments and did not incorporate longitudinal physiological trends, treatment response, or escalation behavior; it also notes no adjustment for multiple comparisons because secondary analyses were exploratory.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
5 of 11 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Performance declines with increasing complexity.
“This confirms prior observations that performance declines with increasing complexity3,9.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [3] Berend, Kenrick et al. “Physiological approach to assessment of acid-base disturbances. The New England Journal of Medicine, 371(15), 1434-45. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1003327. (2014) source
- cites [9] Hirosawa, T. et al. ChatGPT-Generated Differential Diagnosis Lists for Complex Case-Derived Clinical Vignettes: Diagnostic Accuracy Evaluation. JMIR Med Inform. 11, e48808. https://doi.org/10.2196/48808 (2023). source
In “Comparison With Prior Work” (page not specified), the paper reports lower diagnostic accuracy for ChatGPT-3.5 on its complex vignettes than in a prior study of more common presentations, and largely attributes the difference to case complexity. That supports the observation for ChatGPT-3.5, but not an unqualified decline in performance across models or settings. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
Overall categorical accuracy was 82% for ICU physicians and 72% for ChatGPT.
“Overall categorical accuracy was 82% for ICU physicians and 72% for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Harm-weighted misclassification modeling showed significantly higher clinical severity of errors for ChatGPT (mean difference 0.12; 95% CI 0.032-0.220; p = 0.026).
“Harm-weighted misclassification modeling showed significantly higher clinical severity of errors for ChatGPT (mean difference 0.12; 95% CI 0.032–0.220; p = 0.026).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Misclassification of a mixed acid–base disorder as normal is clinically high-severity due to potential implications for delayed escalation in critical care settings.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The severity hierarchy used for harm weights—highest for false reassurance in mixed disorders, then mixed as single disorders, and lowest for intra-class substitutions—reflects clinical harm.
- Findingown data
ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications of mixed acid-base disorder cases.
“whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Paired comparison did not demonstrate a statistically significant difference in overall classification between ICU physicians and ChatGPT (p = 0.267).
“Paired comparison did not demonstrate a statistically significant difference in overall classification (p = 0.267)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
Component-level analysis demonstrated lower respiratory component sensitivity for ChatGPT (0.88 vs. 1.00).
“Component-level analysis demonstrated lower respiratory component sensitivity for ChatGPT (0.88 vs. 1.00)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
ChatGPT classified 16.7% of mixed acid-base disorder cases as normal (false reassurance).
“ChatGPT uniquely classified 16.7% of mixed cases as normal (false reassurance)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Sensitivity for mixed acid-base disorders was 0.96 for ICU physicians and 0.63 for ChatGPT.
“Sensitivity for mixed acid–base disorders was 0.96 for ICU physicians and 0.63 for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Confusion matrix analysis demonstrated divergent structural error patterns.
“Confusion matrix analysis demonstrated divergent structural error patterns.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Overall diagnostic accuracy for ICU physicians was 82% (41/50).
“Overall diagnostic accuracy was 82% (41/50) for ICU physicians and 72% (36/50) for ChatGPT (Table 4).”
- Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
“In this prospective ICU cohort, overall diagnostic accuracy was 82% (41/50) for ICU physicians and 72% (36/50) for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
- Findingown data
Metabolic component sensitivity for ChatGPT was 0.89 (31/35).
“Metabolic component sensitivity: ICU physicians: 0.97 (34/35).ChatGPT: 0.89 (31/35).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Respiratory component sensitivity for ChatGPT was 0.88 (30/34).
“Respiratory component sensitivity: ICU physicians: 1.00 (34/34).ChatGPT: 0.88 (30/34).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Respiratory component sensitivity for ICU physicians was 1.00 (34/34).
“Respiratory component sensitivity: ICU physicians: 1.00 (34/34).ChatGPT: 0.88 (30/34).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Agreement with the final reference diagnosis was substantial for ChatGPT (κ = 0.63).
“Agreement with the final reference diagnosis was substantial for both evaluators: ICU physicians: κ = 0.73.ChatGPT: κ = 0.63.”
- Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
“Although agreement was substantial in both groups (κ = 0.73 vs. 0.63), aggregate metrics alone did not fully capture structural differences in diagnostic behavior.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
- Findingown data
ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications among mixed disorders.
“ChatGPT uniquely classified 16.7% (4/24) of mixed disorders as normal acid–base status (false reassurance), whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications (Fig. 2).”
- Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
“ChatGPT classified 16.7% of mixed disorders as normal, whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
- Findingown data
Exact binomial analysis confirmed that the false-normal rate among mixed cases was significantly different from zero for ChatGPT (p = 0.0015).
“Exact binomial analysis confirmed that the false-normal rate among mixed cases was significantly different from zero for ChatGPT (p = 0.0015).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Sensitivity for mixed acid-base disorder detection was 0.63 (15/24) for ChatGPT.
“Sensitivity for mixed acid–base disorder detection was 0.96 (23/24) for ICU physicians and 0.63 (15/24) for ChatGPT (Table 5).”
- Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
“Sensitivity for mixed disorder detection was 0.96 for ICU physicians compared with 0.63 for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
- Findingown data
ChatGPT more frequently decomposed mixed disorders into single (primary) categories or normal classifications.
“ICU physicians showed a tendency toward cautious overclassification of complexity (Figure 5), whereas ChatGPT more frequently decomposed mixed disorders into single (primary) categories or normal classifications (Figure 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Metabolic component sensitivity for ICU physicians was 0.97 (34/35).
“Metabolic component sensitivity: ICU physicians: 0.97 (34/35).ChatGPT: 0.89 (31/35).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Mean harm score for ICU physicians was 0.064.
“Mean harm score: ICU physicians: 0.064.ChatGPT: 0.184.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Mixed acid-base disorders represented 48% of cases in our cohort (24/50).
“Mixed acid–base disorders represented 48% of cases in our cohort (24/50), reflecting the physiological complexity of critically ill patients.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
ICU physicians showed a tendency toward cautious overclassification of complexity.
“ICU physicians showed a tendency toward cautious overclassification of complexity (Figure 5), whereas ChatGPT more frequently decomposed mixed disorders into single (primary) categories or normal classifications (Figure 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Overall diagnostic accuracy for ChatGPT was 72% (36/50).
“Overall diagnostic accuracy was 82% (41/50) for ICU physicians and 72% (36/50) for ChatGPT (Table 4).”
- Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
“In this prospective ICU cohort, overall diagnostic accuracy was 82% (41/50) for ICU physicians and 72% (36/50) for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
- Findingown data
ChatGPT uniquely classified 16.7% (4/24) of mixed disorders as normal acid-base status (false reassurance).
“ChatGPT uniquely classified 16.7% (4/24) of mixed disorders as normal acid–base status (false reassurance), whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications (Fig. 2).”
- Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
“ChatGPT classified 16.7% of mixed disorders as normal, whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
- Findingown data
Specificity for mixed disorders was 0.73 for ICU physicians.
“Specificity for mixed disorders was 0.73 for ICU physicians and 0.88 for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Bootstrap resampling (5,000 iterations) yielded a 95% confidence interval for the mean harm difference of 0.032-0.220, excluding zero.
“Bootstrap resampling (5,000 iterations) yielded a 95% confidence interval for the mean harm difference of 0.032–0.220, excluding zero (Table 6; Fig. 4).”
- Also stated in: § Component-level detection analysis · plain
“Bootstrap analysis (5,000 resamples) yielded a 95% confidence interval for the mean difference of 0.032–0.220.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Component-level detection analysis · plain
- Findingown data
Agreement with the final reference diagnosis was substantial for ICU physicians (κ = 0.73).
“Agreement with the final reference diagnosis was substantial for both evaluators: ICU physicians: κ = 0.73.ChatGPT: κ = 0.63.”
- Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
“Although agreement was substantial in both groups (κ = 0.73 vs. 0.63), aggregate metrics alone did not fully capture structural differences in diagnostic behavior.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Also stated in: § Performance contextualization within current literature · plain
- Findingown data
Mean harm score for ChatGPT was 0.184.
“Mean harm score: ICU physicians: 0.064.ChatGPT: 0.184.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Sensitivity for mixed acid-base disorder detection was 0.96 (23/24) for ICU physicians.
“Sensitivity for mixed acid–base disorder detection was 0.96 (23/24) for ICU physicians and 0.63 (15/24) for ChatGPT (Table 5).”
- Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
“Sensitivity for mixed disorder detection was 0.96 for ICU physicians compared with 0.63 for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Case complexity as a critical determinant · plain
- Findingown data
Paired comparison using McNemar's test showed no statistically significant difference in overall correct versus incorrect classifications between ICU physicians and ChatGPT (p = 0.267).
“Paired comparison using the McNemar test showed no statistically significant difference in overall correct versus incorrect classifications (p = 0.267).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test demonstrated significantly higher harm scores for ChatGPT compared with ICU physicians (p = 0.026).
“Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test demonstrated significantly higher harm scores for ChatGPT (p = 0.026).”
- Also stated in: § Component-level detection analysis · boosted
“Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank testing demonstrated significantly higher harm-weighted error for ChatGPT compared with ICU physicians (p = 0.026).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Component-level detection analysis · boosted
- Findingown data
The study included 50 adult ICU patients.
“The study included 50 adult ICU patients.”
- Also stated in: § Study population and patient inclusion criteria · plain
“During this period, 50 consecutive adult ICU patients who met the predefined eligibility criteria were included in the study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Study population and patient inclusion criteria · plain
- Findingown data
Specificity for mixed disorders was 0.88 for ChatGPT.
“Specificity for mixed disorders was 0.73 for ICU physicians and 0.88 for ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Bootstrap-derived 95% confidence intervals for overall accuracy overlapped between groups.
“Bootstrap-derived 95% confidence intervals for overall accuracy overlapped between groups.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Mean paired difference in harm score was 0.12.
“Mean paired difference: 0.12.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The lower respiratory component sensitivity for ChatGPT contributed to under-recognition of physiological complexity.
“contributing to under-recognition of physiological complexity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These findings do not establish clinical equivalence between ChatGPT and ICU physicians.
“These findings do not establish clinical equivalence”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Post-hoc power analysis indicated limited ability to detect modest effect sizes (power = 0.22).
“post-hoc power analysis indicated limited ability to detect modest effect sizes (power = 0.22)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Post-hoc power analysis based on observed effect size (Cohen's h = 0.24) indicated achieved power of 0.22.
“Post-hoc power analysis based on observed effect size (Cohen’s h = 0.24) indicated achieved power of 0.22, underscoring the exploratory nature of inferential comparisons.”
- Also stated in: § Interpretation of non-significant overall difference · boosted
“However, post-hoc power analysis demonstrated limited statistical power (0.22) to detect moderate differences, indicating that absence of statistical significance should not be interpreted as evidence of equivalence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Interpretation of non-significant overall difference · boosted
- Interpretationown data
Reduced respiratory component sensitivity in ChatGPT contributed to under-recognition of mixed acid-base disorders.
“Reduced respiratory component sensitivity in ChatGPT contributed to under-recognition of mixed acid–base disorders (Table 5) (Fig. 3).”
- Also stated in: § Structural diagnostic decomposition · hedged
“Respiratory component sensitivity was 1.00 for ICU physicians and 0.88 for ChatGPT, suggesting incomplete physiological decomposition contributed to mixed-disorder under-recognition.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Structural diagnostic decomposition · hedged
- Interpretationown data
In this prospective, real-world ICU cohort, ChatGPT demonstrated broadly comparable overall categorical diagnostic accuracy to ICU clinicians.
“In this prospective, real-world ICU cohort, ChatGPT demonstrated broadly comparable overall categorical diagnostic accuracy to ICU clinicians; however, stratified analyses revealed clinically meaningful differences in complexity recognition and error topology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Our data suggest a pattern of partial physiological reconstruction under complexity conditions rather than isolated formula errors.
“Rather than isolated formula errors, our data suggest a pattern of partial physiological reconstruction under complexity conditions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Comparable aggregate accuracy may coexist with asymmetric error topology, particularly in high-complexity ICU cases.
“Our findings extend this literature by demonstrating that comparable aggregate accuracy may coexist with asymmetric error topology, particularly in high-complexity ICU cases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The findings of this study do not establish clinical equivalence between ChatGPT and ICU physicians in acid-base interpretation.
“The findings of this study do not establish clinical equivalence between ChatGPT and ICU physicians in acid–base interpretation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These findings indicate asymmetric error topology between evaluators despite broadly comparable aggregate accuracy metrics.
“These findings indicate asymmetric error topology between evaluators despite broadly comparable aggregate accuracy metrics.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Inability to prospectively identify case complexity at the bedside limits the safety of conditional reliance on AI outputs.
“Importantly, inability to prospectively identify case complexity at the bedside limits the safety of conditional reliance on AI outputs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Case complexity cannot be prospectively identified at the bedside.
- Interpretationown data
Stratified analyses revealed clinically meaningful differences in complexity recognition and error topology.
“In this prospective, real-world ICU cohort, ChatGPT demonstrated broadly comparable overall categorical diagnostic accuracy to ICU clinicians; however, stratified analyses revealed clinically meaningful differences in complexity recognition and error topology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The sample size (n = 50) limits precision of subgroup estimates.
“First, the sample size (n = 50) limits precision of subgroup estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Differences between evaluators were not merely quantitative but qualitatively related to clinical severity of error.
“This indicates that differences between evaluators were not merely quantitative but qualitatively related to clinical severity of error.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The data do not support autonomous deployment of general-purpose LLMs for independent acid-base interpretation in critical care.
“The data do not support autonomous deployment of general-purpose LLMs for independent acid–base interpretation in critical care.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 20
- May combine two claims. 20
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationChatGPT can achieve high accuracy in classifying basic parameters such as pH and oxygenation status.
“Studies have demonstrated that ChatGPT can achieve high accuracy in classifying basic parameters such as pH and oxygenation status8.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [8] Rao, A. et al. Assessing the Utility of ChatGPT Throughout the Entire Clinical Workflow: Development and Usability Study. Journal of medical Internet research, 25, e48659. (2023). source
The Results (Overall Performance; page unavailable) report 71.8% accuracy across clinical vignettes, supporting a general claim about ChatGPT’s clinical-task accuracy. The paper does not report accuracy for classifying pH or oxygenation status specifically (searched: “pH,” “oxygenation,” and their combination). (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationChatGPT demonstrates strong performance on straightforward cases but reduced reliability in mixed acid-base disorders typical of critically ill ICU populations.
“ChatGPT demonstrates strong performance on straightforward cases but reduced reliability in mixed acid–base disorders typical of critically ill ICU populations9.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] Hirosawa, T. et al. ChatGPT-Generated Differential Diagnosis Lists for Complex Case-Derived Clinical Vignettes: Diagnostic Accuracy Evaluation. JMIR Med Inform. 11, e48808. https://doi.org/10.2196/48808 (2023). source
In “Comparison With Prior Work” (page not provided), the paper reports lower ChatGPT-3.5 diagnostic accuracy for complex general-internal-medicine vignettes than for more common clinical presentations. It does not examine mixed acid–base disorders or critically ill ICU patients, so the claim’s specific application to those cases is unsupported. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationAI performance frequently approaches but does not surpass specialist-level interpretation.
“This aligns with broader meta-analytic observations that AI performance frequently approaches but does not surpass specialist-level interpretation5,10-12.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 4 sources checked- cites [5] Liu X, Faes L, Kale AU, et al. A comparison of deep learning performance against health-care professionals in detecting diseases from medical imaging: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Digit Health. 2019 1(6), e271-e297. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(19)30123-2 (2019). source
- cites [10] Ouyang, David et al. “Electrocardiographic deep learning for predicting post-procedural mortality: a model development and validation study. The Lancet. Digital health 6(1), e70-e78. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(23)00220-0 (2024). source
The Results compare the ECG algorithm with a clinical risk score, and the Discussion says it outperformed human-interpretable ECG features. Neither section reports a meta-analysis or compares AI performance with specialist-level interpretation. Searches for specialist and expert interpretation found no passage establishing the claimed pattern. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [11] Patel, S. B. & Lam, K. “ChatGPT: the future of discharge summaries?. The Lancet. Digital health. 5(3). e107-e108. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(23)00021-3 (2023). source
- cites [12] Nagendran, M. et al. Artificial intelligence versus clinicians: systematic review of design, reporting standards, and claims of deep learning studies. BMJ 368, m689 (2020). source
The Results (Non-randomised studies; page not provided) report that 25 studies described AI as comparable to clinicians, supporting the idea that AI often approaches clinician performance. But 23 described it as superior, and the review cautions that these comparisons have substantial limitations. It does not establish that AI generally fails to surpass specialist-level interpretation. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAgreement was substantial in both groups, with Cohen's kappa of 0.73 for ICU physicians and 0.63 for ChatGPT.
“Agreement was substantial in both groups (κ = 0.73 vs. 0.63).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFinal acid-base diagnoses were distributed as mixed acid-base disorders 48% (24/50), metabolic alkalosis 16% (8/50), respiratory alkalosis 12% (6/50), normal status 10% (5/50), respiratory acidosis 8% (4/50), and metabolic acidosis 6% (3/50).
“After category harmonization into six standardized diagnostic groups, mixed acid–base disorders represented 48% of cases (24/50), metabolic alkalosis 16% (8/50), respiratory alkalosis 12% (6/50), normal status 10% (5/50), respiratory acidosis 8% (4/50), and metabolic acidosis 6% (3/50).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationABG interpretation can be challenging and subject to human error, especially in time-pressured critical care scenarios.
“However, ABG interpretation can be challenging and subject to human error, especially in time-pressured critical care scenarios2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [2] Adrogué, H. J. & Madias, N. E. Secondary responses to altered acid-base status: the rules of engagement. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology: JASN, 21(6), 920-3. https://doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2009121211 (2010). source
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataComplexity-stratified and harm-weighted analyses demonstrated asymmetric error patterns between ChatGPT and ICU physicians with potential safety implications, despite broadly comparable aggregate diagnostic agreement.
“While aggregate diagnostic agreement appeared broadly comparable, complexity-stratified and harm-weighted analyses demonstrated asymmetric error patterns with potential safety implications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: In high-acuity ICU environments, the consequences of under-recognizing physiological complexity—particularly mixed disorders—may exceed those of simple categorical disagreement.
- Rests on an assumption: Misclassification of a mixed acid–base disorder as normal is clinically high-severity due to potential implications for delayed escalation in critical care settings.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The severity hierarchy used for harm weights—highest for false reassurance in mixed disorders, then mixed as single disorders, and lowest for intra-class substitutions—reflects clinical harm.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationVariability in clinician expertise may lead to misinterpretation or delayed recognition of complex acid-base disturbances.
“Variability in clinician expertise may lead to misinterpretation or delayed recognition of complex acid-base disturbances3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] Berend, Kenrick et al. “Physiological approach to assessment of acid-base disturbances. The New England Journal of Medicine, 371(15), 1434-45. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1003327. (2014) source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe final reference diagnosis was established by a blinded expert panel.
“compared with a final reference diagnosis established by a blinded expert panel.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenComplexity-stratified analyses were pre-specified to evaluate differential performance in physiologically complex cases.
“Complexity-stratified analyses were pre-specified to evaluate differential performance in physiologically complex cases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenDiagnostic harmonization was performed prior to statistical analysis and blinded to reference standard outcomes.
“This harmonization step was performed prior to statistical analysis and blinded to reference standard outcomes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataChatGPT outputs did not provide calibrated uncertainty or probabilistic confidence estimates, precluding formal calibration analysis.
“Second, ChatGPT outputs did not provide calibrated uncertainty or probabilistic confidence estimates, precluding formal calibration analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe sample size was determined by the number of consecutive eligible ICU admissions during the predefined study period rather than by a priori power calculation; no formal sample size calculation was performed before enrollment.
“The sample size was determined by the number of consecutive eligible ICU admissions during the predefined study period rather than by a priori power calculation.”
- Also stated in: § Study population and patient inclusion criteria · plain
“Given the exploratory and feasibility-oriented nature of the study, no formal sample size calculation was performed before enrollment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Also stated in: § Study population and patient inclusion criteria · plain
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe results do not suggest universal inferiority; rather, they indicate differential strengths depending on case complexity.
“At the same time, the results do not suggest universal inferiority; rather, they indicate differential strengths depending on case complexity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenSingle-center design may limit generalizability.
“Third, single-center design may limit generalizability.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningThe final reference diagnosis was established by an expert panel using case-based vignette review; reference standard adjudication may still introduce subjectivity compared with a fully protocolized algorithmic standard.
“Fourth, the final reference diagnosis was established by an expert panel using case-based vignette review; although panelists were not involved in bedside care of the included patients and did not have access to longitudinal clinical trajectories or outcomes, reference standard adjudication may still introduce subjectivity compared with a fully protocolized algorithmic standard.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningOnly the first qualifying ABG sample per patient was included to avoid intra-individual correlation.
“Only the first qualifying ABG sample per patient was included to avoid intra-individual correlation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll clinical inputs were provided to ChatGPT in English using a fixed prompt and standardized structure, and the prompt and variable set were identical for all cases and were not modified during the study period.
“All clinical inputs were provided to ChatGPT in English using a fixed prompt and standardized structure. The prompt and variable set were identical for all cases and were not modified during the study period.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe high proportion of mixed disorders reflects the physiological complexity typical of critically ill ICU populations and provides a clinically relevant test environment for diagnostic decomposition analysis.
“The high proportion of mixed disorders reflects the physiological complexity typical of critically ill ICU populations and provides a clinically relevant test environment for diagnostic decomposition analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll cases were derived from real ICU patients and prospectively collected during routine clinical care; no simulated or hypothetical cases were used.
“All cases were derived from real ICU patients and prospectively collected during routine clinical care; no simulated or hypothetical cases were used.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenChatGPT access used GPT-4o via the standard web interface without API-based customization, and no parameter tuning, system-level configuration, or temperature modification was performed.
“During the study period (August–September 2025), GPT-4o, a GPT-4–class large language model, was utilized. Model access occurred through the standard web interface without API-based customization. Exact internal version identifiers were not accessible to the investigators. No parameter tuning, system-level configuration, or temperature modification was performed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe study utilized a GPT-4-based model accessible between August and September 2025; granular internal version identifiers and backend update logs were not available to investigators.
“The study utilized a GPT-4–based model accessible between August and September 2025; however, granular internal version identifiers and backend update logs were not available to investigators.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenSeverity-of-illness scores (APACHE II and SOFA) were recorded for descriptive and exploratory analyses but were not provided to ChatGPT.
“Severity-of-illness scores (APACHE II and SOFA) were recorded for descriptive and exploratory analyses but were not provided to ChatGPT.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll interpretations were performed independently, and evaluators were blinded to each other's assessments.
“All interpretations were performed independently, and evaluators were blinded to each other’s assessments.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataReduced sensitivity for mixed acid-base disorders and the presence of false reassurance classifications highlight structural limitations in physiological decomposition under high-complexity conditions.
“Specifically, reduced sensitivity for mixed acid–base disorders and the presence of false reassurance classifications highlight structural limitations in physiological decomposition under high-complexity conditions.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningNo adjustment for multiple comparisons was applied, as secondary analyses were exploratory and hypothesis-generating.
“No adjustment for multiple comparisons was applied, as secondary analyses were exploratory and hypothesis-generating.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe discrepancy between ICU physicians and ChatGPT was not limited to reduced sensitivity but included a distinct false reassurance pattern.
“Importantly, the discrepancy was not limited to reduced sensitivity but included a distinct false reassurance pattern: ChatGPT classified 16.7% of mixed disorders as normal, whereas ICU physicians produced no false-normal classifications.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThis study evaluated single time-point case-based assessments and did not incorporate longitudinal physiological trends, treatment response, or escalation behavior.
“This study evaluated single time-point case-based assessments and did not incorporate longitudinal physiological trends, treatment response, or escalation behavior7.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7] Komorowski, M. et al. Komorowski M, et al. The artificial intelligence clinician learns optimal treatment strategies for sepsis in intensive care. Nat Med. 24, 1716–1720 (2018). source
The paper relies on this without support.
Most prior comparisons have relied primarily on aggregate accuracy or agreement metrics, without examining structural error patterns, diagnostic decomposition, or clinical severity of misclassification.
“Importantly, most prior comparisons have relied primarily on aggregate accuracy or agreement metrics, without examining structural error patterns, diagnostic decomposition, or the clinical severity of misclassification.”
“Most existing evaluations rely primarily on aggregate accuracy metrics without examining structural error patterns or the clinical severity of misclassification.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In high-acuity ICU environments, the consequences of under-recognizing physiological complexity—particularly mixed disorders—may exceed those of simple categorical disagreement.
“In high-acuity ICU environments, the consequences of under-recognizing physiological complexity—particularly mixed disorders—may exceed those of simple categorical disagreement.”
“In high-acuity ICU settings, under-recognition of physiological complexity may carry disproportionate safety implications.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Misclassification of a mixed acid–base disorder as normal is clinically high-severity due to potential implications for delayed escalation in critical care settings.
“This misclassification was considered clinically high-severity due to potential implications for delayed escalation in critical care settings.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The severity hierarchy used for harm weights—highest for false reassurance in mixed disorders, then mixed as single disorders, and lowest for intra-class substitutions—reflects clinical harm.
“Predefined harm weights were assigned to each misclassification type based on a severity hierarchy, with highest weight assigned to false reassurance in mixed disorders, followed by misclassification of mixed as single (primary) disorders, and lowest weight assigned to intra-class substitutions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Case complexity cannot be prospectively identified at the bedside.
“Because case complexity cannot be prospectively identified at the bedside and because current general-purpose large language models do not provide calibrated uncertainty signaling or escalation mechanisms, their outputs should not be considered interchangeable with physician-level interpretation in ICU settings.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Current general-purpose large language models do not provide escalation mechanisms.
“Because case complexity cannot be prospectively identified at the bedside and because current general-purpose large language models do not provide calibrated uncertainty signaling or escalation mechanisms, their outputs should not be considered interchangeable with physician-level interpretation in ICU settings.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Early recognition of evolving deterioration and worst-case scenario assessment are essential to patient safety in critical care.
“In critical care environments, where early recognition of evolving deterioration and worst-case scenario assessment are essential to patient safety, such asymmetries in error patterns warrant careful consideration.”
Cites
A guide to deep learning in healthcare
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Large language models in medicine
Thirunavukarasu, A. J., Ting, D. S. J., Elangovan, K., Gutierrez, L., Tan, T. F., & Ting, D. S. W. (2023) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02448-8 · Cited by 3,944 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Since its public launch in late 2022, ChatGPT has been explored for diverse medical applications including clinical diagnostics, patient management support, and medical education 6 .”
Key challenges for delivering clinical impact with artificial intelligence
Kelly, C. J., Karthikesalingam, A., Suleyman, M., Corrado, G., & King, D. (2019) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-019-1426-2 · Cited by 3,136 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Human-in-the-loop models, in which AI functions as structured analytical support under physician supervision, may represent a more appropriate translational pathway 13 .”
Liu, X., Faes, L., Kale, A. U., Wagner, S. K., Fu, D. J., Bruynseels, A., Mahendiran, T., Moraes, G., Shamdas, M., Kern, C., et al. (2019) · The Lancet Digital Health · doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(19)30123-2 · Cited by 1,883 · cited 3× · see citing works
“This aligns with broader meta-analytic observations that AI performance frequently approaches but does not surpass specialist-level interpretation 5,10-12 .”
Komorowski, M., Celi, L. A., Badawi, O., Gordon, A. C., & Faisal, A. A. (2018) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-018-0213-5 · Cited by 1,290 · cited 2× · see citing works
“This study evaluated single time-point case-based assessments and did not incorporate longitudinal physiological trends, treatment response, or escalation behavior 7 .”
Nagendran, M., Chen, Y., Lovejoy, C. A., Gordon, A. C., Komorowski, M., Harvey, H., Topol, E. J., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Collins, G. S., & Maruthappu, M. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m689 · Cited by 1,152 · cited 1× · see citing works
“This aligns with broader meta-analytic observations that AI performance frequently approaches but does not surpass specialist-level interpretation 5,10-12 .”
ChatGPT: the future of discharge summaries?
Patel, S. B., & Lam, K. (2023) · The Lancet Digital Health · doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(23)00021-3 · Cited by 728 · see citing works
Rao, A., Pang, M., Kim, J., Kamineni, M., Lie, W., Prasad, A. K., Landman, A., Dreyer, K., & Succi, M. D. (2023) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/48659 · Cited by 412 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Studies have demonstrated that ChatGPT can achieve high accuracy in classifying basic parameters such as pH and oxygenation status 8 .”
A short guide for medical professionals in the era of artificial intelligence
Meskó, B., & Görög, M. (2020) · npj Digital Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41746-020-00333-z · Cited by 409 · see citing works
Physiological Approach to Assessment of Acid–Base Disturbances
Berend, K., de Vries, A. P. J., & Gans, R. O. B. (2014) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmra1003327 · Cited by 301 · cited 1× · see citing works
“This confirms prior observations that performance declines with increasing complexity 3,9 .”
Clinical review: reunification of acid-base physiology.
Kellum, J. A. (2005) · Critical Care · doi:10.1186/cc3789 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Hirosawa, T., Kawamura, R., Harada, Y., Mizuta, K., Tokumasu, K., Kaji, Y., Suzuki, T., & Shimizu, T. (2023) · JMIR Medical Informatics · doi:10.2196/48808 · Cited by 130 · cited 2× · see citing works
“This confirms prior observations that performance declines with increasing complexity 3,9 .”
Secondary Responses to Altered Acid-Base Status: The Rules of Engagement
Adrogué, H. J., & Madias, N. E. (2010) · Journal of the American Society of Nephrology · doi:10.1681/asn.2009121211 · Cited by 91 · cited 1× · see citing works
“This structural decomposition analysis goes beyond previous reports attributing errors solely to arithmetic miscalculation 2 .”
Ouyang, D., Theurer, J., Stein, N. R., Hughes, J. W., Elias, P., He, B., Yuan, N., Duffy, G., Sandhu, R. K., Ebinger, J., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Digital Health · doi:10.1016/s2589-7500(23)00220-0 · Cited by 64 · cited 2× · see citing works
“This aligns with broader meta-analytic observations that AI performance frequently approaches but does not surpass specialist-level interpretation 5,10-12 .”
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Park, B. H., Soria, C. S., Suresh, P., Broderick, R. C., & Sandler, B. J. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10438275/v1
- Authors
- Gulen, D., Gözden, H. E., Ekin, S., & Ceylan, I.
- Affiliations
- Sağlık Bilimleri Üniversitesi (TR)
- ORCID
- Ekin, Serpil
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2026-03-27
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC13179372
- OpenAlex
- W7141203043
- Semantic Scholar
- 46fe0715844db25806fb0b1ada23cc9862b530e9
- Cited by
- 1
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1
- FWCI
- 2.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Keywords
- ChatGPT, large language models, arterial blood gases, intensive care unit, mixed acid-base disorders, false reassurance, clinical reasoning
- MeSH terms
- Large Language Models, Acid-Base Equilibrium, Blood Gas Analysis, Female, Humans, Intensive Care Units, Middle Aged, Physicians, Prospective Studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-07.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-07.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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