Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers
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Abstract
A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is the possibility of collapse, where landscapes and the societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events and strengthening intersystem connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. We conduct experiments on four models that simulate abrupt changes in the Chilika lagoon fishery, the Easter Island community, forest dieback and lake water quality—representing ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under increasing levels of primary stress but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise in all four models bring the collapses substantially closer to today by ~38–81%. We discuss the implications for further research and the need for humanity to be vigilant for signs that ecosystems are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought.
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Although most recent models agree that a large-scale collapse of the Amazon forest is unlikely within the twenty-first century, our findings suggest that interactions and synergies among different disturbances could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions even in remote and central parts of the system.
“Although most recent models agree that a large-scale collapse of the Amazon forest is unlikely within the twenty-first century2, our findings suggest that interactions and synergies among different disturbances (for example, frequent extreme hot droughts and forest fires) could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions even in remote and central parts of the system101.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [101]
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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
- Authors
- Willcock, S., Cooper, G. S., Addy, J., & Dearing, J. A.
- Affiliations
- Bangor University (GB)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Rothamsted Research (GB)
- University of Southampton (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Willcock, Simon
- Venue
- Nature Sustainability
- Published
- 2023-06-22
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1331-1342
- ISSN
- 2398-9629 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4381612105
- Cited by
- 150
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 25
- FWCI
- 15.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Sustainability (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Repository) (acceptedVersion)
- Rothamsted Repository (Rothamsted Repository) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Bangor University Research Portal (Bangor University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- UK Research and Innovation (NE/T00391X/1, NE/W005050/1, MR/S013/13X/1, BB/X010961/1)
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBS/E/RH/230004A, BBS/E/RH/230004C, BBS/E/RH/230004B)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/R009279/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/W005050/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- ecological collapse, Anthropocene, multiple stressors, noise, extreme events, abrupt change, Easter Island, forest decline, lake water quality, ecosystem resilience, anthropogenic pressure, climate change
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