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Cited by 782Climate variability and modelsGeology and Paleoclimatology ResearchClimate Change and Environmental Impact

Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America

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Cai, Wenju, McPhaden, Michael J., Grimm, Alice M., Rodrigues, Regina R., Taschetto, Andréa S., Garreaud, René D., Dewitte, Boris, Poveda, Germán +15 more·2020·Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3
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  • ENSO SST variability underpins consequential ENSO-related climate variability and climate extremes within and outside the Pacific.

    “Because ENSO SST variability underpins consequential ENSO-related climate variability and climate extremes within and outside the Pacific 6,11,12 , how ENSO SST variability might respond to greenhouse warming is a fundamental issue in climate change science 7,9,13 , with critical societal ramifications.”

    From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [12]

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  12. Cai, W. & Cowan, T. Trends in Southern Hemisphere circulation in IPCC AR4 models over 1950-1999: Ozone-depletion vs. greenhouse forcing. J. Clim. 20 (4), 681-693 (2007). 141. Barnston, A. G. et al. Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI's Seasonal Climate Forecasts. J. App. Meteor. Climatol. 49, 493-520 (2010). 142.
  13. Bombardi, R. J., L. Trenary, K. Pegion, B. Cash, T. DelSole, & J. L. Kinter. Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America. J. Clim. 31, 8181-95 (2018). 143. Ren, H. L., Zuo, J., & Deng, Y. Statistical predictability of Niño indices for two types of ENSO. Clim. Dyn. 52, 5361-5382 (2019). 144. Giannini, A., Chiang, J. C. H., Cane, M. A., Kushnir, Y., & Seager, R. The ENSO teleconnection to the tropical Atlantic ocean: Contributions of the remote and local SSTs to rainfall variability in the tropical Americas. J. Clim. 14, 4530-4544 (2001). 145. Richter, I., Behera, S. K., Masumoto, Y., Taguchi, B., Komori, N., & Yamagata, T. On the triggering of Benguela Niños: Remote equatorial versus local influences. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 (2010). 146. Barreiro, M. Influence of ENSO and the South Atlantic Ocean on Climate Predictability over Southeastern South America. Clim. Dyn. 35, 1493-1508 (2010). 147. Keenlyside, N. S., Ding, H. & Latif, M. Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2278-2283 (2013). 148. Luo, J.-J., Liu, G., Hendon, H., Alves, O. & Yamagata, T. Inter-basin sources for two-year predictability of the multi-year La Niña event in 2010-2012. Sci. Rep. 7, 2276 (2017). 149. Dayan, H., Vialard, J., Izumo, T., & Lengaigne, M. Does sea surface temperature outside the tropical Pacific contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability? Clim. Dyn. 43, 1311-1325 (2014). 150. Chikamoto, Y. et al. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability. Nat. Commun. 6, 6869 (2015). 151. Boulanger, J.-P., Martinez, F., & Segura, E. C. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America. Clim. Dyn. 28, 255-271. (2007) 152.
  14. Karamperidou, C., Di Nezio, P. N., Timmermann, A., Jin, F. F., & Cobb, K. M. The response of ENSO flavors to mid Holocene climate: implications for proxy interpretation. Paleoceanography 30, 527-547 (2015). 177. Li, G. & Xie, S.-P. Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J. Clim. 27, 1765-1780 (2014). 178. Bellucci, A., Gualdi, S. & Navarra, A. The double-ITCZ syndrome in coupled general circulation models: The role of large-scale vertical circulation regimes. J. Clim. 23, 1127- 1145 (2009). 179. Cai, W., T. Cowan Why is the amplitude of the Indian Ocean Dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models? Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1200-1205 (2013). 180. McGregor, S., Stuecker, M. F., Kajtar, J. B., England, M. H., & Collins, M. Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 493 (2018). 181. Cai, W., H. H. Hendon, & G. A. Meyers. Indian Ocean dipole like variability in the CSIRO Mark 3 Coupled Climate Model. J. Clim. 18, 1449-1468 (2005). 182. Taschetto, A. S., Gupta, A. S., Jourdain, N. C., Santoso, A., Ummenhofer, C. C., & England, M. H. Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO events in CMIP5: mean state and future projections. J. Clim. 27, 2861-2885 (2014). 183. Ma, H. Y., Mechoso, C. R., Xue, Y., Xiao, H., Wu, C. M., Li, J. L., & De Sales, F. Impact of land surface processes on the South American warm season climate. Clim. Dyn. 37, 187-203 (2011). 184. Yin, L., Fu, R., Shevliakova, E. & Dickinson, R. E. How well can CMIP5 simulate precipitation and its controlling processes over tropical South America? Clim. Dyn. 41, 3127-3143 (2013). 185. Misra, V., Dirmeyer, P. A., & Kirtman B. P. Dynamic downscaling of seasonal simulations over South America. J. Clim. 16, 103-117 (2003). 186.
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Authors
Cai, W., McPhaden, M. J., Grimm, A. M., Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Garreaud, R. D., Dewitte, B., Poveda, G., Ham, Y.-G., Santoso, A., Ng, B., Anderson, W., Wang, G., Geng, T., Jo, H.-S., Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Osman, M., Li, S., Wu, L., Karamperidou, C., Takahashi, K., & Vera, C.
Affiliations
  • CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
  • NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (US)
  • Universidade Federal do Paraná (BR)
  • Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (BR)
  • Australian Research Council (AU)
  • Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CL)
  • Universidad Católica del Norte (CL)
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO)
  • Chonnam National University (KR)
  • Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
  • Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (BR)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (CN)
  • University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
  • Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (PE)
Corresponding author
Cai, Wenju
ORCID
Venue
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2020-04-10
Volume
1
Issue
4
Pages
215-231
ISSN
2662-138X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3
OpenAlex
W3015236006
Cited by
782
References
6
Citations by year
2026: 108 · 2025: 165 · 2024: 152 · 2023: 123 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 95 · 2020: 22
FWCI
4.91
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (publishedVersion)
  • UNSWorks (University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Universidad de Chile (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • CONICET Digital (CONICET) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (1902970)
  • Australian Government
  • Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (1740/2)
  • Agence Nationale de la Recherche (2017-, ANR-15-JCL/-0002- 01)
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (15/50122-0, 2014/50848-, 2014/, 1740/2, 2015/, 16/2014, 2015/50122, 88887, 14/50848-9)
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (2016-1, 41490640, 41490643)
  • Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (88881, 88887, 16/2014)
  • Universidad Nacional de Colombia
  • Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (UBACyT 20020130100489BA, PIP 112)
  • Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (16/2014)
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (465501/2014-, 2015/50122-0, #465501/2014‐1, 2014-1, 16/2014, 88881, 2017-1)
  • Korea Meteorological Administration (KMI2018-07010, 2014-1)
  • Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • Australian Research Council (FT160100495)
  • Secretaría de Ciencia y Técnica, Universidad de Buenos Aires
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Keywords
ENSO, climate change impacts, teleconnections, South America, climate variability, atmospheric circulation, rainfall variability, temperature variability

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