Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation
Open accessAbstract
The Amazon forest is regarded as a tipping element of the Earth system, susceptible to a regime change from tropical forest to savanna and grassland due to anthropogenic land use and climate change. Previous research highlighted the role of fire in amplifying irreversible large-scale Amazon die-back. However, large-scale feedback analyses which integrate the interplay of fire with climate and land-use change are currently lacking. To address this gap, here we applied the fire-enabled Potsdam Earth Model to examine these feedback mechanisms in the Amazon. By studying forest recovery after complete deforestation, we discovered that fire prevents regrowth across 56-82% of the potential natural forest area, contingent on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This emphasizes the significant contribution of fire to the irreversible transition, effectively locking the Amazon into a stable grassland state. Introducing fire dynamics into future assessments is vital for understanding climate and land-use impacts in the region.
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Repeated fires can lead to grass invasion, increased flammability and suppressed canopy recovery, particularly at the forest-savanna transition.
“Repeated fires can lead to grass invasion, increased flammability and suppressed canopy recovery, particularly at the forest-savanna transition.”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [59]
Fire-vegetation feedbacks can reduce ecosystem resilience and promote persistent forest degradation.
“Recent studies highlight that fire-vegetation feedbacks can reduce ecosystem resilience and promote persistent forest degradation 26,59,60 .”
From Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models (2025) · cites this paper as [59]
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Cochrane, M. A. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01437 · Cited by 1,218 · see citing works
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Health benefits of reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
Damm, Y., Börner, J., Gerber, N., & Soares-Filho, B. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Amazon dieback beyond the 21st century under high-emission scenarios by Earth System models
Melnikova, I., Hajima, T., Shiogama, H., Hayashi, M., Ito, A., Nishina, K., Tachiiri, K., & Yokohata, T. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02606-5 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Drüke, M., Sakschewski, B., von Bloh, W., Billing, M., Lucht, W., & Thonicke, K.
- Affiliations
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Drüke, Markus
- Venue
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2023-07-11
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2662-4435 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4383911742
- Cited by
- 44
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 12
- FWCI
- 4.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Communications Earth & Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (1740/TRP 2015/50122-0)
- Waldklimafonds (2219WK39A4)
- Volkswagen Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- Amazon rainforest, fire, deforestation, forest recovery, tipping points, forest-savanna transition, fire-climate feedback, land use change, atmospheric CO2, forest decline
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