The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World
Abstract
Abstract: Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision‐making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are ( 1 ) increased understanding of key uncertainties, ( 2 ) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and ( 3 ) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.
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Cited by
Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social–ecological Systems
Walker, B., Holling, C. S., Carpenter, S. R., & Kinzig, A. P. (2004) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-00650-090205 · Cited by 7,821
Self-citationRESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES
Folke, C. (2006) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002 · Cited by 7,749
Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L., Holling, C. S., & Walker, B. (2002) · AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment · doi:10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.437 · Cited by 3,136
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Metadata
- Authors
- Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R.
- Venue
- Conservation Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-03-25
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 358-366
- ISSN
- 0888-8892 (ISSN-L)
- 1523-1739
- OpenAlex
- W2023339029
- Cited by
- 1,384
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 102.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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