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Low Serum Thyrotropin Concentrations as a Risk Factor for Atrial Fibrillation in Older Persons
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Low serum thyrotropin concentrations are a sensitive indicator of hyperthyroidism but can also occur in persons who have no clinical manifestations of the disorder. We studied whether low serum thyrotropin concentrations in clinically euthyroid older persons are a risk factor for subsequent atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We studied 2007 persons (814 men and 1193 women) 60 years of age or older who did not have atrial fibrillation in order to determine the frequency of this arrhythmia during a 10-year follow-up period. The subjects were classified according to their serum thyrotropin concentrations: those with low values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter; 61 subjects); those with slightly low values (> 0.1 to 0.4 mU per liter; 187 subjects); those with normal values (> 0.4 to 5.0 mU per liter; 1576 subjects); and those with high values (> 5.0 mU per liter; 183 subjects). RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up period, atrial fibrillation occurred in 13 persons with low initial values for serum thyrotropin, 23 with slightly low values, 133 with normal values, and 23 with high values. The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation at 10 years was 28 percent among the subjects with low serum thyrotropin values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter), as compared with 11 percent among those with normal values; the age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation was 28 per 1000 person-years among those with low values and 10 per 1000 person-years among those with normal values (P = 0.005). After adjustment for other known risk factors, the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in elderly subjects with low serum thyrotropin concentrations, as compared with those with normal concentrations, was 3.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.7 to 5.5; P < 0.001). The 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation in the groups with slightly low and high serum thyrotropin values was not significantly different from that in the group with normal values. CONCLUSIONS: Among people 60 years of age or older, a low serum thyrotropin concentration is associated with a threefold higher risk that atrial fibrillation will develop in the subsequent decade.
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“Cardiovascular symptoms are the most frequent indicators of mild thyroid hormone excess in the elderly, similar to overt hyperthyroidism [52,53] .”
From The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism (2015) · cites this paper as [52]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“An increased incidence of AF has also been observed in elderly persons with low serum TSH (0.1-0.5 mIU/l) with an HR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.5)[52] and 1.85 (95% CI: 1.14-3.00)[53] .”
From The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism (2015) · cites this paper as [52]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“A 2-to 3-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) was associated with SHyper in elderly subjects in two large prospective studies [52,53] .”
From The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism (2015) · cites this paper as [52]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Excess thyroid hormone can also increase the risk of arrhythmias24 25 and muscle weakness23 in older people, which can contribute to a greater risk of falls.”
From Levothyroxine dose and risk of fractures in older adults: nested case-control study (2011) · cites this paper as [24]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“lower serum TSH levels are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) (60)”
From Liothyronine and Desiccated Thyroid Extract in the Treatment of Hypothyroidism (2020) · cites this paper as [60]
In the citing paper
“Older patients with low TSH and higher fT4 have a higher prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation compared with euthyroid subjects (94–98)”
From Levothyroxine therapy in elderly patients with hypothyroidism (2021) · cites this paper as [97]
In the citing paper
“Twenty years ago, a low serum TSH level was first associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) (12)”
From Serum Thyroid Function, Mortality and Disability in Advanced Old Age: The Newcastle 85+ Study (2016) · cites this paper as [12]
In the citing paper
“in cohort studies, subclinical hyperthyroidism or lower serum TSH have been associated with many involutional disease states including dementia, osteoporosis, AF, muscle weakness, low bone density, and fracture (12–14, 18, 20, 48, 49).”
From Serum Thyroid Function, Mortality and Disability in Advanced Old Age: The Newcastle 85+ Study (2016) · cites this paper as [12]
In the citing paper
“In contrast with subclinical hypothyroidism, many previous studies have shown that low serum TSH is associated with poor outcomes, either increased all-cause or vascular mortality, or AF (12–14, 17, 29, 36, 37).”
From Serum Thyroid Function, Mortality and Disability in Advanced Old Age: The Newcastle 85+ Study (2016) · cites this paper as [12]
In the citing paper
“Sawin et al. (399) first reported a 2.8-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation in SH subjects over age 60 years in 1994, and subsequent studies have confirmed that the risk of arrhythmias, particularly atrial fibrillation, is increased in SH (381,384,388,391,400,401).”
From 2016 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Diagnosis and Management of Hyperthyroidism and Other Causes of Thyrotoxicosis (2016) · cites this paper as [399]
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“Sawin en 1994 [23] a été le premier à démontrer l’existence d’un risque de fibrillation auriculaire (FA) chez les patients ayant une TSH basse : sur une cohorte de plus de 2 000 sujets de plus de 60 ans provenant de l’étude de Framingham, le risque de développé une FA après 10 ans de suivi était près de 3 fois plus él…”
BackgroundThe Influence of Female Health Issues on the Development of Autoimmune Thyroid Disease
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“Between 10% and 15% of hyperthyroid patients develop AF [2].”
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“A reduced TSH concentration is a risk factor for the occurrence of atrial fibrillation [11], and subclinical hyperthyroidism has also been shown to increase the risk of this arrhythmia [16].”
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“There is substantial evidence for the overtreatment of patients with SCH [13–15], exposing them to unnecessary burden and risk of harm [16–20].”
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“A 10-year cohort study by Sawin et al. found a threefold increase in AF risk among individuals aged ≥ 60 years with TSH ≤ 0.1 mU/L (RR: 3.1; 95% CI: 1.7 – 5.5; p < 0.001) [92].”
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“The majority of investigations have demonstrated that the most significant predictors of this severe arrhythmia are advancing age, male gender, prolonged thyrotoxicosis duration, high level of thyroid hormones and concomitant cardiovascular diseases[2, 7–11].”
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“또한 갑상선호르몬 투여로 인해 무 증상 갑상선기능항진증이 생기는 경우에는 골밀도의 감소 및 그에 따를 골절 위험도가 증가할 수 있고[25], 심방세동 이 발생할 위험성이 증가된다는 보고가 있어[26], 과치료로 인한 부작용의 가능성이 있다는 것도 하나의 이유가 될 수 있다.”
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Thyroid Heart Disease in the Elderly
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Secondary and tertiary preventions of thyroid disease
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“1 mU/L develop atrial fibrillation over 10 years.(39) Therefore, as many as 3 million (28% of the 11 million people who have Table 4.”
BackgroundGraves’ Disease and Cardiac Complications
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“The risk for AF which may lead to congestive heart increases in the presence of low TSH levels, especially among patients over 60 years old [88, 89].”
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Thyroid Heart Disease in the Elderly
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sawin, C. T., Geller, A., Wolf, P. A., Belanger, A. J., Baker, E., Bacharach, P., Wilson, P., Benjamin, E. J., & D'Agostino, R. B.
- Affiliations
- Boston University (US)
- Veterans Health Administration (US)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 1994-11-10
- Volume
- 331
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1249-1252
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- OpenAlex
- W2335515807
- Cited by
- 1,259
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 48 · 2015: 45 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 63 · 2012: 65
- FWCI
- 16.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc038038-022, 5r01hl040423-06)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01-HL-40423-04, N01-HC-38038)
- National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (2-R01-NS-17950-12, R01NS017950)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Thyroid Disorders and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
- Keywords
- thyroid-stimulating hormone, subclinical hyperthyroidism, older adults, hyperthyroidism, arrhythmia risk, thyroid function, incidence, risk factors, euthyroid patients, parathyroid hormone, parathyroidectomy, parathyroid hormone replacement, hypoparathyroidism
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hyperthyroidism, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Thyrotropin, Thyroxine, Incidence, Confidence Intervals
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