Cited by 1,259Thyroid Disorders and TreatmentsAtrial Fibrillation Management and OutcomesCardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias

Low Serum Thyrotropin Concentrations as a Risk Factor for Atrial Fibrillation in Older Persons

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Sawin, Clark T., Geller, Andrew, Wolf, Philip A., Belanger, Albert J., Baker, Errol, Bacharach, Pamela, Wilson, Peter, Benjamin, Emelia J. +1 more·1994·New England Journal of Medicine

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Low serum thyrotropin concentrations are a sensitive indicator of hyperthyroidism but can also occur in persons who have no clinical manifestations of the disorder. We studied whether low serum thyrotropin concentrations in clinically euthyroid older persons are a risk factor for subsequent atrial fibrillation. METHODS: We studied 2007 persons (814 men and 1193 women) 60 years of age or older who did not have atrial fibrillation in order to determine the frequency of this arrhythmia during a 10-year follow-up period. The subjects were classified according to their serum thyrotropin concentrations: those with low values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter; 61 subjects); those with slightly low values (> 0.1 to 0.4 mU per liter; 187 subjects); those with normal values (> 0.4 to 5.0 mU per liter; 1576 subjects); and those with high values (> 5.0 mU per liter; 183 subjects). RESULTS: During the 10-year follow-up period, atrial fibrillation occurred in 13 persons with low initial values for serum thyrotropin, 23 with slightly low values, 133 with normal values, and 23 with high values. The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation at 10 years was 28 percent among the subjects with low serum thyrotropin values (< or = 0.1 mU per liter), as compared with 11 percent among those with normal values; the age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation was 28 per 1000 person-years among those with low values and 10 per 1000 person-years among those with normal values (P = 0.005). After adjustment for other known risk factors, the relative risk of atrial fibrillation in elderly subjects with low serum thyrotropin concentrations, as compared with those with normal concentrations, was 3.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.7 to 5.5; P < 0.001). The 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation in the groups with slightly low and high serum thyrotropin values was not significantly different from that in the group with normal values. CONCLUSIONS: Among people 60 years of age or older, a low serum thyrotropin concentration is associated with a threefold higher risk that atrial fibrillation will develop in the subsequent decade.

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Crossref · 10.1056/nejm199411103311901

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  • Cardiovascular symptoms are the most frequent indicators of mild thyroid hormone excess in the elderly, similar to overt hyperthyroidism.

    “Cardiovascular symptoms are the most frequent indicators of mild thyroid hormone excess in the elderly, similar to overt hyperthyroidism [52,53] .”

    From The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism (2015) · cites this paper as [52]

    The Discussion (p. 3) identifies atrial fibrillation as a manifestation associated with overt hyperthyroidism and finds that low thyrotropin is a risk factor for it in people aged 60 or older. The paper does not establish that cardiovascular symptoms are the most frequent indicators of mild thyroid hormone excess; it defines subclinical hyperthyroidism in an asymptomatic person (p. 1). (LLM, conf=0.88)

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  • An increased incidence of atrial fibrillation has been observed in elderly persons with low serum TSH (0.1-0.5 mIU/l) with hazard ratios of 1.6 (95% CI 1.0-2.5) and 1.85 (95% CI 1.14-3.00).

    “An increased incidence of AF has also been observed in elderly persons with low serum TSH (0.1-0.5 mIU/l) with an HR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.5)[52] and 1.85 (95% CI: 1.14-3.00)[53] .”

    From The 2015 European Thyroid Association Guidelines on Diagnosis and Treatment of Endogenous Subclinical Hyperthyroidism (2015) · cites this paper as [52]

    Table 2 (p. 3) reports a relative risk of 1.6 (95% CI 1.0–2.5) for atrial fibrillation in older people with slightly low TSH, supporting the result attached to this citation. Its TSH range is >0.1–0.4 mU/L, not the citing sentence’s 0.1–0.5 mIU/L. The 1.85 estimate is attached to a different citation and is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • A 2- to 3-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation was associated with subclinical hyperthyroidism in elderly subjects in two large prospective studies.

    “A 2-to 3-fold increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) was associated with SHyper in elderly subjects in two large prospective studies [52,53] .”
  • Excess thyroid hormone can increase the risk of arrhythmias and muscle weakness in older people, which can contribute to a greater risk of falls.

    “Excess thyroid hormone can also increase the risk of arrhythmias24 25 and muscle weakness23 in older people, which can contribute to a greater risk of falls.”
  • Lower serum TSH levels are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation.

    “lower serum TSH levels are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) (60)”

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [5]5. Furszyfer J, Kurland LT, McConahey WM, Elveback LR. Graves' disease in Olmstead County, Minnesota, 1935 through 1967. Mayo Clin Proc 1970;45:636-44.
  2. [17]17. Ross DS, Daniels GH, Gouveia D. The use and limitations of a chemiluminttd- a t g i cnt endocrine clinic. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 1990;71:764-9.

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Authors
Sawin, C. T., Geller, A., Wolf, P. A., Belanger, A. J., Baker, E., Bacharach, P., Wilson, P., Benjamin, E. J., & D'Agostino, R. B.
Affiliations
  • Boston University (US)
  • Veterans Health Administration (US)
Venue
New England Journal of Medicine
Published
1994-11-10
Volume
331
Issue
19
Pages
1249-1252
ISSN
  • 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
  • 1533-4406
OpenAlex
W2335515807
Cited by
1,259
References
31
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 46 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 38 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 48 · 2015: 45 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 63 · 2012: 65
FWCI
16.14
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institutes of Health (n01hc038038-022, 5r01hl040423-06)
  • National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01-HL-40423-04, N01-HC-38038)
  • National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (2-R01-NS-17950-12, R01NS017950)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Thyroid Disorders and Treatments
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Atrial Fibrillation Management and Outcomes
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
Keywords
thyroid-stimulating hormone, subclinical hyperthyroidism, older adults, hyperthyroidism, arrhythmia risk, thyroid function, incidence, risk factors, euthyroid patients, parathyroid hormone, parathyroidectomy, parathyroid hormone replacement, hypoparathyroidism
MeSH terms
Age Factors, Aged, Atrial Fibrillation, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Hyperthyroidism, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Thyrotropin, Thyroxine, Incidence, Confidence Intervals

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