The DOI matches its Crossref record; 14 of the 14 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 5 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Global deaths from cardiovascular disease are increasing as a result of population growth, the aging of populations, and epidemiologic changes in disease. Disentangling the effects of these three drivers on trends in mortality is important for planning the future of the health care system and benchmarking progress toward the reduction of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We used mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, which includes data on 188 countries grouped into 21 world regions. We developed three counterfactual scenarios to represent the principal drivers of change in cardiovascular deaths (population growth alone, population growth and aging, and epidemiologic changes in disease) from 1990 to 2013. Secular trends and correlations with changes in national income were examined. RESULTS: Global deaths from cardiovascular disease increased by 41% between 1990 and 2013 despite a 39% decrease in age-specific death rates; this increase was driven by a 55% increase in mortality due to the aging of populations and a 25% increase due to population growth. The relative contributions of these drivers varied by region; only in Central Europe and Western Europe did the annual number of deaths from cardiovascular disease actually decline. Change in gross domestic product per capita was correlated with change in age-specific death rates only among upper-middle income countries, and this correlation was weak; there was no significant correlation elsewhere. CONCLUSIONS: The aging and growth of the population resulted in an increase in global cardiovascular deaths between 1990 and 2013, despite a decrease in age-specific death rates in most regions. Only Central and Western Europe had gains in cardiovascular health that were sufficient to offset these demographic forces. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).
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“For the most common cause of cardiovascular death, ischemic heart disease, the number of deaths increased by an estimated 41.7% from 1990 to 2013.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Even larger declines (more than 55%) were seen as a result of epidemiologic changes in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“According to our estimates, epidemiologic change led to an increase in cardiovascular deaths in only one region of the world (western sub-Saharan Africa).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“The combination of increases in the number of deaths due to population growth and population aging and declines in age-specific death rates represented the most common epidemiologic profile among the specific cardiovascular causes of death (Table 1).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“whereas population growth contributed to an estimated 23.6% increase.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Rheumatic heart disease was the only cardiovascular condition for which there were fewer total deaths globally in 2013 than in 1990.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“Ischemic heart disease was the largest contributor to the increase in the number of cardiovascular deaths (2.4 million of the overall increase of 5.0 million cardiovascular deaths)”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“Central Europe and Western Europe, which had declines of an estimated 5.2% and 12.8%, respectively.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“East Asia reported more than 1.2 million additional deaths in 2013, representing a 47.2% increase from 1990.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“only in Central Europe and Western Europe did the annual number of deaths from cardiovascular disease actually decline.”
- Also stated in: § CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION · plain
“The only regions with a significant decrease in cardiovascular deaths were Central Europe and Western Europe, which had declines of an estimated 5.2% and 12.8%, respectively.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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“The directional trends for rheumatic heart disease were similar with respect to population growth, aging, and age-specific death rates.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“On the basis of these estimates, large reductions in the age-specific risk of death from ischemic heart disease have led to almost 2 million fewer deaths than would have been expected had death rates remained unchanged from 1990.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Population aging contributed to an estimated 52.5% increase in these deaths”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“despite an estimated decline of 34.4% (95% uncertainty interval, 27.1 to 40.4) owing to global epidemiologic changes in ischemic heart disease.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“We report this difference as a net decrease of 121% in the age- and sex-specific death rates (422,872 fewer cardiovascular deaths than expected divided by 349,153 cardiovascular deaths observed in 1990).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > METHODS > DETERMINATION OF DRIVERS OF CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY
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“there was no significant correlation elsewhere.”
- Also stated in: § CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS AND NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA · plain
“Pearson’s correlation coefficients for the four levels of income were as follows: low income, r=0.20, P=0.24; lower-middle income, r=−0.08, P=0.60; upper-middle income, r=−0.33, P=0.02; and high income, r= −0.19, P= 0.18.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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“However, the magnitude of the decline due to epidemiologic changes — a decrease of more than 100% — led to an estimated decline in the number of deaths of 26.5% (95% uncertainty interval, 17.2 to 33.6).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“led to an estimated decline in the number of deaths of 26.5% (95% uncertainty interval, 17.2 to 33.6).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“The relative contributions of these drivers varied by region”
- Also stated in: § CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION · plain
“The percentage change from 1990 to 2013 in the total number of deaths from all cardiovascular causes varied significantly by region (Fig. 2).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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- Also stated in: § CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION · plain
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“a 55% increase in mortality due to the aging of populations”
- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
“This increase was driven by the change in the number of deaths attributed to population aging (55% increase from 1990; 95% uncertainty interval, 54.5 to 55.4)”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
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“a 25% increase due to population growth”
- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
“and population growth (25.1% increase from 1990; 95% uncertainty interval, 24.7 to 25.5).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
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In the paper
“Global deaths from cardiovascular disease increased by 41% between 1990 and 2013 despite a 39% decrease in age-specific death rates; this increase was driven by a 55% increase in mortality due to the aging of populations and a 25% increase due to population growth.”
- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
“In 2013, the number of people who died from cardiovascular disease was more than 17.3 million (95% uncertainty interval, 16.5 to 18.1), representing an increase from 1990 of 40.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 36.2 to 46.4), despite a decrease in deaths attributable to epidemiologic changes of 39.3% (95% uncertainty interval, 33.6 to 44.1) (Table 1).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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“However, the absolute numbers of deaths ascribed to these conditions remained relatively low as compared with those ascribed to ischemic heart disease and stroke.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“Central Europe and Western Europe, which had declines of an estimated 5.2% and 12.8%, respectively.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“However, in regions where this decrease was relatively small (i.e., regions in category 1), the combined effect of population growth and aging poses the greatest threat.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“As a result, our estimates of the global burden of disease may not account for the actual variation in cardiovascular mortality among some countries.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“North Africa and the Middle East offset a similar trend in population growth and aging with a significant decline in age-specific death rates.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“We also show that increases in GDP per capita do not correlate well with declines in age-specific risk.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Smaller relative gains in health, paired with a lesser degree of population aging, account for the decline in total cardiovascular deaths in Western Europe.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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In the paper
“The combined effects of population growth, population aging, and changing age-specific death rates underlie the disparate trends in total cardiovascular deaths observed across world regions.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“Our standard approach of attributing each death to a single underlying cause is intentionally defined according to GBD 2013 methods for the purpose of comparability and clarity. However, there will be some degree of misclassification bias.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“In the high-income Asia–Pacific region, the potential for an increase in cardiovascular mortality caused by a rapidly aging population appears to have been limited by the world’s largest decline in age-specific rates of cardiovascular death.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Our analysis shows that without the effect of population growth and aging, epidemiologic change would have led to a reduction in the numbers of cardiovascular deaths in most regions.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
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“Change in gross domestic product per capita was correlated with change in age-specific death rates only among upper-middle income countries, and this correlation was weak; there was no significant correlation elsewhere.”
- Also stated in: § CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS AND NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA · plain
“the two variables had a significant correlation only within the category of upper-middle income.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
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“Southern Latin America, Australasia, and high-income North America had no detectable change in the number of deaths from 1990 to 2013 (as indicated by an uncertainty interval crossing 0) because population aging and growth balanced out declines in age-specific death rates.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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“Atrial fibrillation or flutter and peripheral vascular disease are notable exceptions to the demographic and epidemiologic pattern for cardiovascular disease. Deaths from each of these conditions increased dramatically between 1990 and 2013, driven not only by population growth and aging but also by increases in age- and sex-specific death rates.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
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“In absolute terms, South Asia had the largest estimated increase in deaths from cardiovascular disease, reporting more than 1.7 million more deaths in 2013 than in 1990. This change represents an increase of 97.4% (95% uncertainty interval, 72 to 126.1).”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS ACCORDING TO REGION
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In the paper
“For example, there were 349,153 cardiovascular deaths in the high-income Asia–Pacific region in 1990. In 2013, there were 487,170 cardiovascular deaths, which is less than the 910,042 that would have been expected if 1990 death rates had remained constant, given the population size and the age structure in that region in 2013.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > METHODS > DETERMINATION OF DRIVERS OF CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY
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“Most countries had an increase in income per capita and a decline in the number of cardiovascular deaths due to epidemiologic change.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > CARDIOVASCULAR DEATHS AND NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA
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“despite a 39% decrease in age-specific death rates”
- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
“despite a decrease in deaths attributable to epidemiologic changes of 39.3% (95% uncertainty interval, 33.6 to 44.1)”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > Abstract > RESULTS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
- Also stated in: § GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This pattern was also present in trends for ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic and other nonischemic causes of stroke, hypertensive heart disease, cardiomyopathy, myocarditis, aortic aneurysm, and endocarditis.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > RESULTS > GLOBAL DEATHS DUE TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These changes are probably due to the combined effect of birth cohorts’ decreased exposure to tobacco smoking, improvements in diet, and improved treatment of cardiovascular disease and cardio-metabolic risk factors targeting the prevention of cardiovascular disease, and improved treatment of cardiovascular disease.10”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contrast, South Asia had a dramatic rise in cardiovascular deaths due to population growth and aging without a significant decline in cardiovascular deaths due to epidemiologic change.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the rigorous out-of-sample predictive validity testing used in GBD 2013 is cause for some confidence.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As they have noted, the classic model of “epidemiologic transition” does not fully reflect the heterogeneity of the burden of cardiovascular disease across countries.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“A deterministic health policy model indicated that 40 to 55% of the decline in coronary heart disease in high-income countries can be attributed to the effects of medical and surgical treatments.12”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [12] source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, we recognize that patterns of disease burden vary not just between but also within countries. Any summary provided at the level of a region or country may mask significant disparities within that area.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, calculations made with the traditional Shapley method and other methods used in econometrics may produce different results.6”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, cause-specific mortality data are lacking or of limited quality in some countries.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly, the number of deaths resulting from rheumatic heart disease may not be completely captured by vital records in regions in which the condition is endemic.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, the remarkable increase in the age-specific rate of death from atrial fibrillation probably reflects increases in the screening, recognition, and attribution of death to atrial fibrillation in addition to changes in disease epidemiology.”
§ Demographic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Global Cardiovascular Mortality > DISCUSSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Ageing of the population also contributes to increasing the absolute number of CVD events. 17”
From 2016 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias (2016) · cites this paper as [17]
In the citing paper
“Ageing of the population also contributes to increasing the absolute number of CVD events.17”
From 2016 ESC/EAS Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidaemias (2016) · cites this paper as [17]
Citations
Cites
Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Foreman, K., Lim, S., Shibuya, K., Aboyans, V., Abraham, J., Adair, T., Aggarwal, R., Ahn, S. Y., et al. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61728-0 · Cited by 14,070
Self-citationExplaining the decrease in U.S. deaths from coronary disease, 1980–2000
Ford, E. S., Ajani, U. A., Croft, J. B., Critchley, J. A., Labarthe, D. R., Kottke, T. E., Giles, W. H., & Capewell, S. (2007) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmsa053935 · Cited by 2,757
Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction: Clinical Insights
Paiva, L., Providencia, R. A., Barra, S., Dinis, P., Faustino, C., & Gonçalves, L. M. M. (2015) · Cardiology · doi:10.1159/000371739 · Cited by 2,513
Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012
Ng, M., Freeman, M. K., Fleming, T. D., Robinson, M., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Thomson, B., Wollum, A., Sanman, E., Wulf, S., Lopez, A. D., et al. (2014) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2013.284692 · Cited by 1,576
Self-citationEmerging Epidemic of Cardiovascular Disease in Developing Countries
Reddy, K. S., & Yusuf, S. (1998) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/01.cir.97.6.596 · Cited by 1,206
Decomposition procedures for distributional analysis: a unified framework based on the Shapley value
Shorrocks, A. F. (2013) · The Journal of Economic Inequality · doi:10.1007/s10888-011-9214-z · Cited by 1,190
Yusuf, S., Reddy, S., Ôunpuu, S., & Anand, S. (2001) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/hc4701.099488 · Cited by 1,141
Ezzati, M., Hoorn, S. V., Lawes, C. M. M., Leach, R. J., James, W. P. T., López, A. D., Rodgers, A., & Murray, C. J. L. (2005) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020133 · Cited by 627
Self-citationModeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm
Foreman, K. J., Lozano, R., Lopez, A. D., & Murray, C. J. (2012) · Population Health Metrics · doi:10.1186/1478-7954-10-1 · Cited by 564
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators, 2014, Lancet, 385, 117
Cited by
Sorted by citations
McDonagh, T. A., Metra, M., Adamo, M., Gardner, R. S., Baumbach, A., Böhm, M., Burri, H., Butler, J., Čelutkienė, J., Chioncel, O. D., et al. (2021) · PubMed · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehab670 · Cited by 20,604
2021 ESC guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure
McDonagh, T. A., Metra, M., Adamo, M., Gardner, R. S., Baumbach, A., Böhm, M., Burri, H., Butler, J., Čelutkienė, J., Chioncel, O., et al. (2021) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehab368 · Cited by 13,344
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Benjamin, E. J., Blaha, M. J., Chiuve, S. E., Cushman, M., Das, S. R., Deo, R., de Ferranti, S. D., Floyd, J., Fornage, M., Gillespie, C., et al. (2017) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000485 · Cited by 12,591
Self-citationGlobal Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019
Roth, G. A., Mensah, G. A., Johnson, C. O., Addolorato, G., Ammirati, E., Baddour, L. M., Barengo, N. C., Beaton, A. Z., Benjamin, E. J., Benziger, C. P., et al. (2020) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2020.11.010 · Cited by 11,449
Self-citationMach, F., Baigent, C., Catapano, A. L., Koskinas, K. C., Casula, M., Badimon, L., Chapman, M. J., De Backer, G. G., Delgado, V., Ference, B. A., et al. (2020) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehz455 · Cited by 8,961
Metadata
- Authors
- Roth, G. A., Forouzanfar, M. H., Moran, A. E., Barber, R., Nguyen, G., Feigin, V. L., Naghavi, M., Mensah, G. A., & Murray, C. J. L.
- Affiliations
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Auckland University of Technology (NZ)
- ORCID
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2015-04-02
- Volume
- 372
- Issue
- 14
- Pages
- 1333-1341
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC4482354
- OpenAlex
- W1986019364
- Semantic Scholar
- 27a6b9a739f391969318dbfd3ffe6b84aa566d21
- Cited by
- 1,188
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 87 · 2024: 115 · 2023: 110 · 2022: 117 · 2021: 123 · 2020: 141 · 2019: 118 · 2018: 105 · 2017: 110 · 2016: 98 · 2015: 31
- FWCI
- 89.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (K08HL089675)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- cardiovascular mortality, population aging, population growth, age-specific mortality, counterfactual scenarios, GDP per capita, global health trends, regional variation in mortality
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Cardiovascular Diseases, Demography, Humans, Income, Mortality, Sex Factors, Global Health
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-04, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-04 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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