Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

May combine two claims.

The analytical approach was changed to an ensemble modelling strategy to generate more realistic uncertainty intervals and more accurate predictions.

“we have changed our analytical approach (see below) to an ensemble modelling strategy to generate more realistic uncertainty intervals (UIs) and more accurate predictions.38”

• cites [38] Foreman, 2012, Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm, Popul Health Metr sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Data were adjusted for bias using a revised version of the hospital adjustment method, which uses more data and is more consistent with the GBD cause list developed by Murray and colleagues in 2007.

“We adjusted data for bias using a revised version of the hospital adjustment method, which uses more data and is more consistent with the GBD cause list developed by Murray and colleagues in 2007.42”

• cites [42] Murray, 2007, Estimating population cause-specific mortality fractions from in-hospital mortality: validation of a new method, PLoS Med sourcePartly supported

  The Methods > Validation passage says the 2007 paper used a GBD cause list and adapted it into 45 cause groups. The paper also proposes a method for reducing bias in hospital mortality data (Abstract > Conclusions). It does not say it developed the GBD cause list in 2007; its reference for that list is Murray and Lopez (1996). Nor does it establish that the citing authors’ revised method uses more data. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Nair and colleagues reported 66,000 to 199,000 RSV deaths for the year 2005.

“the 66 000 to 199 000 deaths for the year 2005 reported by Nair and colleagues75 in 2010”

• cites [75] Nair, 2010, Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Lancet sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Nair and colleagues assumed no RSV deaths in people older than 2 years based on expert opinion, although the literature records such deaths.

“They reviewed the published studies on RSV but chose, on the basis of expert opinion, to assume no RSV deaths in individuals older than 2 years;75 the scientific literature, however, records deaths in those older than 2 years.77,78”

• cites [75] Nair, 2010, Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Lancet sourcePartly supported

  The Results passage says the authors assumed that all deaths from RSV-associated severe acute lower respiratory infection occurred in the first two years of life. It grounds that assumption in age-stratified mortality data from unpublished studies, not expert opinion. The assumption concerns severe disease in young children, not all RSV deaths in people older than two; the separate claim about recorded deaths carries other citations. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites [77] Almirall, 2007, Differences in the etiology of community-acquired pneumonia according to site of care: a population-based study, Respir Med sourceCould not verify

  The Results report RSV among the causes of pneumonia and give overall inpatient and outpatient mortality rates, but do not link any death to RSV. Searches for RSV-specific deaths and mortality found no passage documenting deaths in people older than 2 years. The Nair assumption is attached to a different citation in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites [78] Díaz, 2007, Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients in chile: the increasing prevalence of respiratory viruses among classic pathogens, Chest sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Validation studies suggest that verbal autopsy studies overestimate adult deaths at low malaria cause fractions and underestimate adult malaria deaths when malaria deaths are common.

“Validation studies suggest that verbal autopsy studies overestimate adult deaths at low malaria cause fractions and underestimate adult malaria deaths when malaria deaths are common.68”

• cites [68] Lozano, 2011, Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards, Popul Health Metr sourcePartly supported

  The Results (CSMF estimation; page unavailable) report estimates that are too high at low true cause fractions and too low at high fractions for adult asthma when health-care experience is included. They describe malaria estimates as poorly correlated with true fractions, but do not report that directional pattern for adult malaria deaths. The claim applies an observed pattern for another cause to malaria. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

Verbal autopsy is accurate for some causes such as breast cancer, drowning, or road injury, but less accurate for others, and performance for child lower respiratory infections is particularly poor.

“Verbal autopsy validation studies68 suggest that verbal autopsy is accurate for some causes such as breast cancer, drowning, or road injury, but less accurate for other causes. Verbal autopsy performance for some key causes of child death such as lower respiratory infections is particularly poor.”

• cites [68] Lozano, 2011, Performance of physician-certified verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards, Popul Health Metr sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

In 2010, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes accounted for 24.9% of deaths worldwide, a decrease from 15.9 million (34.1%) of 46.5 million in 1990.

“At the most aggregate level, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes were 24·9% of deaths worldwide in 2010, down from 15·9 million (34·1%) of 46·5 million in 1990.”

• AssumptionThe authors state this as an assumption: Verbal autopsy cause fractions are representative of the study population.

May combine two claims.

Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, and by 2010 accounted for two of every three deaths (34.5 million) worldwide.

“Deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million between 1990 and 2010, accounting for two of every three deaths (34·5 million) worldwide by 2010.”

May combine two claims.

YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45-54% since 1990, while YLLs from ischaemic heart disease and stroke increased by 17-28%.

“YLLs from lower respiratory infections and diarrhoea decreased by 45–54% since 1990; ischaemic heart disease and stroke YLLs increased by 17–28%.”

May combine two claims.

There were 486 site-years of published and unpublished verbal autopsy data across 66 countries, of which 10% were nationally representative.

“We identified 486 site-years of published and unpublished verbal autopsy data across 66 countries, of which 10% were nationally representative.”

May combine two claims.

Age-standardised death rates rose for some key disorders (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease), but for most diseases death rates fell over the past two decades, including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders.

“Age standardised death rates from some key disorders rose (HIV/AIDS, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease in particular), but for most diseases, death rates fell in the past two decades; including major vascular diseases, COPD, most forms of cancer, liver cirrhosis, and maternal disorders.”

May combine two claims.

Malaria mortality increased by an estimated 19.9% since 1990, reaching 1.17 million deaths in 2010.

“Malaria mortality also rose by an estimated 19·9% since 1990 to 1·17 million deaths in 2010.”

May combine two claims.

In 2010, 8 million people died from cancer, 38% more than two decades earlier; 1.5 million (19%) of these were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer.

“8 million people died from cancer in 2010, 38% more than two decades ago; of these, 1·5 million (19%) were from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer.”

May combine two claims.

Diabetes caused 1.3 million deaths in 2010, twice as many as in 1990.

“1·3 million deaths were due to diabetes, twice as many as in 1990.”

May combine two claims.

For malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change in death rates was noted.

“For other conditions, notably malaria, prostate cancer, and injuries, little change was noted.”

May combine two claims.

The fraction of global deaths due to injuries was 9.6% in 2010 (5.1 million deaths), marginally higher than 8.8% two decades earlier.

“The fraction of global deaths due to injuries (5·1 million deaths) was marginally higher in 2010 (9·6%) compared with two decades earlier (8·8%).”

May combine two claims.

In 2010, the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS, similar to 1990 except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications.

“Ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, stroke, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, and HIV/AIDS were the leading causes of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) in 2010, similar to what was estimated for 1990, except for HIV/AIDS and preterm birth complications.”

May combine two claims.

Deaths from HIV/AIDS rose from 0.30 million in 1990 to 1.5 million in 2010, with a peak of 1.7 million in 2006.

“Deaths from HIV/AIDS increased from 0·30 million in 1990 to 1·5 million in 2010, reaching a peak of 1·7 million in 2006.”

May combine two claims.

The rise in injury deaths was driven by a 46% increase in road traffic accident deaths worldwide (1.3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls.

“This was driven by a 46% rise in deaths worldwide due to road traffic accidents (1·3 million in 2010) and a rise in deaths from falls.”

May combine two claims.

Ischaemic heart disease and stroke together caused 12.9 million deaths in 2010, representing one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990.

“Ischaemic heart disease and stroke collectively killed 12·9 million people in 2010, or one in four deaths worldwide, compared with one in five in 1990;”

May combine two claims.

Important sex differences were evident from ages 15-34 years; among males, injuries, HIV/TB, and some non-communicable diseases predominate.

“Important sex differences were evident from ages 15–34 years; among male individuals, injuries, HIV/TB, and some non-communicable diseases predominate.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

For African trypanosomiasis, almost no deaths are recorded in vital registration or verbal autopsy studies, most likely because data have not been obtained in focal populations with substantial disease.

“First, for some causes such as African trypanosomiasis, almost no deaths are recorded in vital registration or verbal autopsy studies, most likely because data have not been obtained in focal populations with substantial disease present.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

There were 56 surveys or censuses with information on injury mortality across 65 survey years or census years.

“We also identified 56 surveys or censuses with information on injury mortality across 65 survey years or census years.”

May combine two claims.

In neonatal age groups, neonatal disorders dominated, with important contributions from diarrhoeal disease, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious and non-communicable diseases including congenital causes.

“In the neonatal age groups, disorders arising during the neonatal period dominated, but with important contributions from the category of diarrhoeal disease, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious and non-communicable diseases, including congenital causes.”

May combine two claims.

Beginning at age 50 years, circulatory causes rise steadily to become the largest cause of death.

“Beginning at age 50 years, circulatory causes begin a steady rise to become the largest cause of death.”

May combine two claims.

Out-of-sample performance varies substantially across causes; kidney cancer has the largest RMSE in females (2.039) and cardiovascular and circulatory disease in males has the smallest (0.555).

“Out-of-sample performance also varies substantially across causes; kidney cancer has the largest RMSE in female individuals (2·039) and the smallest RMSE is for cardiovascular and circulatory disease in male individuals (0·555).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

More than half of the CODEm models have an out-of-sample RMSE below 1.

“More than 50% of the models the appendix (p 112) have an out-of-sample RMSE of less than 1.”

May combine two claims.

Population growth alone would have increased communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths by 46.9%, non-communicable disease deaths by 22.9%, and injury deaths by 31.1%.

“Because of the correlation between population growth rates and mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes, population growth alone would have increased this category by 46·9%, non-communicable diseases by 22·9%, and injuries by 31·1% (table 1).”

May combine two claims.

Cancers caused 8.0 million deaths in 2010, representing 15.1% of all deaths worldwide.

“Cancers claimed 8·0 million lives in 2010, 15·1% of all deaths worldwide”

May combine two claims.

The gap between in-sample and out-of-sample performance varies substantially across causes, being largest for firearm mechanical forces and smallest for leukaemia.

“Of note, the gap between in-sample and out-of-sample performance varies substantially across causes—from mechanical forces (firearm) with the largest difference to leukaemia with the smallest.”

May combine two claims.

Among females aged 15-34 years, injuries were a smaller cause of death and maternal causes made an important contribution.

“Among female individuals of the same age group, injuries were a smaller cause of death with maternal causes making an important contribution.”

May combine two claims.

About half of total liver cancer mortality was attributed to hepatitis B infection, with smaller fractions due to hepatitis C and alcohol.

“Roughly half of the total liver cancer mortality was attributed to hepatitis B infection, with smaller fractions due to hepatitis C and alcohol”

May combine two claims.

Although the same scalar was applied to all causes at the draw level, CoDCorrect changed the size of more uncertain causes by more than more certain causes, which is a desirable property.

“Although at the draw level the same scalar was applied to all causes, the net effect of CoDCorrect was to change the size of more uncertain causes by more than is done for more certain causes, a desirable property.”

May combine two claims.

For Thailand and Panama, UNAIDS 2012 revision estimates are considerably higher than 2010 estimates and are inconsistent with all-cause mortality evidence.

“In the case of Thailand and Panama, however, UNAIDS 2012 revision estimates are considerably higher than 2010 estimates and are inconsistent with the all-cause mortality evidence.”

May combine two claims.

Ageing of the world population, with mean age rising from 26.1 to 29.5 years, contributed to an 11.2% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, a 39.2% increase in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 9.2% increase in injury deaths.

“Ageing of the world’s population such that the mean age of the world increased from 26·1 years to 29·5 years contributed to an 11·2% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, a 39·2% increase in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 9·2% increase in injuries (table 1).”

May combine two claims.

In ages 5-14 years, infectious diseases, HIV/TB, injuries, and some cancers predominated, although overall mortality at these ages was low.

“In the age group 5–14 years, infectious diseases, HIV/tuberculosis (HIV/TB), injuries, and some cancers predominated, although overall mortality at these ages was low.”

May combine two claims.

Declines in age-specific and sex-specific death rates contributed to a 52.7% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, a 32.1% decrease in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 16.3% decrease in injury deaths.

“Declines in age-specific and sex-specific death rates have contributed to a 52·7% decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deaths, a 32·1% decrease in non-communicable disease deaths, and a 16·3% decrease in injury deaths.”

May combine two claims.

Annual deaths from non-communicable diseases rose by just under 8 million to 34.5 million, representing two of every three deaths in 2010.

“The annual number of deaths from non-communicable diseases, by contrast, rose by just under 8 million, to 34·5 million, or two of every three deaths in 2010.”

May combine two claims.

There were 1557 survey years with sibling history data, and a further 52 household survey years or census years of data covering 61 countries.

“We identified 1557 survey years with sibling history data, and a further 52 household survey years or census years of data covering 61 countries.”

May combine two claims.

There is a rising fraction of deaths in many age groups from diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, blood and endocrine disorders, and cancers, along with a decrease in the fraction due to chronic respiratory deaths in middle-aged and older groups.

“Other important shifts, with age, are evident—namely, a rising fraction of deaths in many age groups from diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, blood and endocrine disorders, and cancers, along with a decrease in the fraction due to chronic respiratory deaths in the middle-aged and older groups.”

May combine two claims.

Completeness is often substantially different for child and adult deaths; in some regions such as Latin America, child completeness is usually lower than adult completeness, but other patterns are observed in Asia.

“Completeness is often substantially different for child and adult deaths; in some regions such as Latin America, child completeness is usually lower than adult completeness, but other patterns are observed in Asia.40”

• cites [40] Wang, 2012, Age-specific and sex-specific mortality in 187 countries, 1970–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Despite efforts to improve quality and comparability, data from some sources appear completely implausible.

“Despite these efforts to enhance quality and comparability, the data from some sources seem completely implausible.”

May combine two claims.

In 2010, injuries accounted for 5.1 million deaths, or 9.6% of total deaths.

“The third category, injuries, accounts for 5·1 million or 9·6%.”

May combine two claims.

Watt and colleagues used a higher all-cause under-5 mortality estimate and a higher lower respiratory infection cause fraction than GBD.

“They used a much higher estimate of all-cause under-5 mortality and a higher cause fraction due to lower respiratory infection than we used.”

• cites [76] Watt, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Haemophilus influenza type b in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Death rates rose for diabetes and chronic kidney disease between 1990 and 2010.

“and rose for diabetes and chronic kidney disease.”

May combine two claims.

Age-standardised death rates from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers fell by 8% between 1990 and 2010 despite a 47% increase in numbers of deaths.

“age-standardised death rates from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers fell by 8% between 1990 and 2010, despite a 47% increase in numbers of deaths”

May combine two claims.

Globally, the number of injury deaths rose by 24% since 1990, while death rates decreased modestly.

“Globally, although the number of deaths from injury rose by 24% since 1990, death rates decreased modestly”

May combine two claims.

In GBD 2010, the number of malaria deaths in 2010 was estimated to be about 5% less than the single-cause estimate, or about 1.17 million.

“In these GBD 2010 results, where the sum of cause-specific estimates must equal the number of deaths from the demographic analysis for each country-age-sex-year, the number of malaria deaths in 2010 was estimated to be about 5% less or about 1·17 million.”

May combine two claims.

For women aged 15-49 years, an estimated 3.5 million deaths from all causes occurred in 2010, and the leading cause was HIV/AIDS, followed by cardiovascular disease, maternal disorders, suicide, tuberculosis, breast and cervical cancer, and digestive diseases and cirrhosis.

“For women aged 15–49 years, we estimated 3·5 million deaths from all causes in 2010. Figure 3A shows that the leading cause was HIV/AIDS, followed by cardiovascular disease, maternal disorders, suicide, tuberculosis, breast and cervical cancer, and digestive diseases and cirrhosis.”

May combine two claims.

For children under 5 years, CHERG estimated 1.40 million lower respiratory infection deaths versus GBD's 847,000; 801,000 diarrhoeal deaths versus GBD's 666,000; and 564,000 malaria deaths versus GBD's 676,000.

“CHERG estimated 1·40 million deaths due to lower respiratory infection compared with 847 000 in our study; CHERG estimated 801 000 for diarrhoeal diseases versus 666 000 in the GBD 2010; for malaria CHERG estimated 564 000 versus 676 000 here.”

• cites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

For men aged 15-49 years, the leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases, road traffic injuries, and HIV/AIDS, with other major causes including suicide and interpersonal violence.

“The leading causes of death for men in this age group, however, were cardiovascular diseases, road traffic injuries, and HIV/AIDS, with other major causes including suicide and interpersonal violence.”

May combine two claims.

Preterm events accounted for 29% of global neonatal deaths, while neonatal sepsis and neonatal encephalopathy each accounted for 17%.

“preterm events accounted for 29% of global neonatal deaths, with nearly equal shares for neonatal sepsis and neonatal encephalopathy—17% each.”

May combine two claims.

In the post-neonatal period, an estimated 2.0 million deaths occurred, and nearly half were due to lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria.

“In the post-neonatal period (figure 2B), we estimated 2·0 million deaths. Nearly half of these deaths were due to three diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria.”

May combine two claims.

At both 1990 and 2010, there was substantial regional variation in the relative importance of causes, with communicable diseases and related causes much more important in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia than in north Africa, and vascular diseases and cancer predominating in most other regions.

“At both time periods, there was substantial variation across regions in the relative importance of different causes, with communicable diseases and related causes being much more important in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia than in north Africa, and vascular diseases and cancer predominating in most other regions.”

May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 173,000 rotavirus deaths in children under 5 years and 78,000 in people over 5 years in 2010.

“we reported 173 000 deaths due to rotavirus in children younger than 5 years and 78 000 deaths in individuals older than 5 years in 2010”

May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 234,000 RSV lower respiratory infection deaths in children under 5 years in 2010 and 520,000 in 1990.

“our findings of 234 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010 and 520 000 in 1990”

May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 168,000 pneumococcal lower respiratory infection deaths in children under 5 years in 2010 and 381,000 in 1990.

“Our findings of 168 000 deaths due to pneumococcal lower respiratory infection in children younger than 5 years in 2010 and 381 000 in 1990”

May combine two claims.

Death rates for COPD and liver cirrhosis decreased between 1990 and 2010.

“Death rates for COPD and liver cirrhosis also decreased”

May combine two claims.

The key difference between GBD and WHO tuberculosis estimates lies in how case-detection rates were estimated: WHO used expert consultation, while GBD used a statistical model.

“The key difference lies in how the case-detection rate in every country was estimated; WHO used locally informed expert consultation to assess both under-diagnosis and under-reporting whereas we used a statistical model to try and estimate the case detection rate.”

May combine two claims.

O'Brien and colleagues used a 27% lower respiratory infection fraction among under-5 deaths, whereas GBD used 18%.

“They used a higher estimated fraction of deaths in children younger than 5 years due to lower respiratory infections than in our study, 27% and 18%, respectively.”

• cites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Road injury was a remarkably consistent cause of YLLs; its lowest regional ranking was 19th in Oceania and it was in the top five causes in eight regions.

“Road injury was a remarkably consistent cause of YLLs; its lowest regional ranking is 19th in Oceania and it was in the top five causes in eight regions.”

May combine two claims.

Injury deaths were 5.1 million in 2010, 1 million more than two decades earlier, a 24% increase.

“One million more deaths from injuries occurred in 2010 (5·1 million) than two decades earlier, a 24% increase”

May combine two claims.

The leading cause of YLLs globally was lower respiratory infections in 1990 and ischaemic heart disease in 2010; total YLLs from lower respiratory infections decreased by 45% while those from ischaemic heart disease increased by 28%.

“The leading cause of YLLs globally was lower respiratory infections in 1990 and ischaemic heart disease in 2010; in this period, the total number of YLLs from lower respiratory infections decreased by 45% but increased 28% for ischaemic heart disease.”

May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 184,000 Hib lower respiratory infection deaths in children under 5 years in 2010 and 447,000 in 1990.

“our finding of 184 000 (95% UI 154 053–219 456) in 2010 and 447 000 (385 717–506 594) in 1990”

May combine two claims.

Deaths from intentional injuries increased for both self-harm and interpersonal violence.

“Deaths from intentional injuries increased for both self-harm and interpersonal violence.”

May combine two claims.

Malaria was a leading global cause but a minor cause in most regions outside sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.

“Malaria was a leading global cause but a minor cause in most regions outside sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania.”

May combine two claims.

Cirrhosis of the liver caused 1 million deaths in 2010, 33% more than in 1990, and was roughly equally attributable to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and alcohol.

“Cirrhosis of the liver was the cause of a million deaths in 2010, 33% more than in 1990, roughly equally attributable to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and alcohol.”

May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 1.20 million tuberculosis deaths in 2010, about 14% more than WHO's 1.05 million.

“We estimate that in 2010 1·20 million deaths were due to tuberculosis, about 14% more than the WHO estimate of 1·05 million (2011 WHO TB Report).”

May combine two claims.

Ischaemic heart disease and all forms of stroke together killed an estimated 12.9 million people in 2010, a quarter of the global total, compared with one in five deaths worldwide 20 years earlier.

“Together, ischaemic heart disease and all forms of stroke killed an estimated 12·9 million people in 2010, a quarter of the global total, compared with one in five deaths worldwide 20 years earlier.”

May combine two claims.

Uncertainty intervals varied widely across causes; the two leading causes, ischaemic heart disease and lower respiratory infections, had nearly overlapping UIs and were separated by a substantial gap from the next highest ranked cause, stroke.

“UIs varied widely across causes. Figure 7 shows the 95% UIs for YLLs for each cause in 2010, ordered by the mean rank of every cause. The two leading causes—ischaemic heart disease and lower respiratory infections—have nearly overlapping UIs. These two causes are separated by a substantial gap with the next highest ranked cause, stroke.”

May combine two claims.

Age-standardised death rates from major vascular diseases decreased by 20% or more, especially heart disease and strokes, for the world as a whole, even though numbers of vascular disease deaths increased by a third to 15.6 million in 2010.

“Our findings suggest important decreases (20% or more) in age-standardised death rates from major vascular diseases, especially heart disease and strokes, for the world as whole, even though numbers of vascular disease deaths increased by a third to 15·6 million in 2010”

May combine two claims.

The top four causes of death in 1990 remained the top four in 2010; ischaemic heart disease and stroke increased by 26-35% over the interval, while lower respiratory infections and COPD declined by 7-18%.

“Although the top four causes of death in 1990 remain the top four in 2010, the change in numbers of deaths is noteworthy, with ischaemic heart disease and stroke increasing by 26–35% over the interval, but lower respiratory infections and COPD declining by 7–18%.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

For some countries, such as Ecuador, GBD estimates, WHO estimates, and cause-of-death data were in close alignment.

“for some countries, such as Ecuador, our estimates, WHO estimates, and the cause of death data were in close alignment”

May combine two claims.

Death rates rose for transport injuries and for adverse effects of medical treatment.

“and rising for transport injuries and, interestingly, from adverse effects of medical treatment.”

May combine two claims.

Road traffic deaths increased by 420,600 and claimed 1.3 million lives in 2010.

“driven primarily by a 420 600 increase in road traffic deaths, which claimed 1·3 million lives in 2010.”

May combine two claims.

GBD models captured more temporal and spatial correlation in cause-of-death data, yielding different estimates from WHO where data were strong, such as Japan and Thailand.

“Our models also captured more of the temporal and spatial correlation structure in the cause of death data yielding quite different estimates than did the WHO where data were strong (eg, Japan and Thailand).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

O'Brien and colleagues used 10.6 million all-cause under-5 deaths for 2000, compared with GBD's 9.4 million and UNICEF's 9.6 million.

“these investigators used an estimate of 10·6 million deaths in children younger than 5 years from all causes for the year 2000, which contrasts with our estimate of 9·4 million and UNICEF’s estimate of 9·6 million.”

• cites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Lung cancer rose from the 8th to the 5th leading cause of death in two decades because of a 48% increase in absolute number of deaths.

“Lung cancer increased from the 8th cause to the 5th cause in the two decades because of a 48% increase in absolute number of deaths.”

May combine two claims.

In the 1-4 years age group, 2.0 million deaths occurred; malaria was the most important cause globally, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and nutritional deficiencies, and these four causes accounted for 52.4% of deaths.

“In the age group 1–4 years (figure 2C), we noted 2·0 million deaths distributed across a wider array of causes. The most important cause globally in this age group was malaria, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, and nutritional deficiencies. These four causes accounted for 52·4% of deaths in this age group.”

May combine two claims.

By 2010, substantial progress was achieved even in Africa in reducing YLLs from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes, although these still accounted for three out of four premature deaths in Africa.

“By 2010, substantial progress was achieved, even in Africa, in reducing YLLs from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes particularly, although these still accounted for three out of four premature deaths in Africa.”

May combine two claims.

CHERG estimated higher fractions of neonatal deaths due to preterm birth complications and lower fractions due to sepsis and other disorders than GBD did.

“CHERG estimating much higher fractions due to preterm birth complications and lower fractions due to sepsis and other disorders”

• cites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Breast cancer mortality rates fell by 15% even though numbers of deaths from the disease increased by more than a third.

“Breast cancer mortality rates fell by 15%, even though numbers of deaths from the disease increased by more than a third.”

May combine two claims.

Direct conflict deaths peaked at 496,400 in 1994, with a low of 14,700 in 2001 and 17,700 in 2010.

“During 1990–2010, direct deaths peaked at 496 400 in 1994 with a low in 2001 of 14 700 and 17 700 in 2010.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Despite substantial differences in modelling approaches, GBD and CHERG results for 2010 were surprisingly close.

“given the substantial difference in modelling approaches, the results for 2010 between the two approaches were actually surprisingly close”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Cirrhosis rates vary greatly across countries, with Egypt having the highest level related to an iatrogenic hepatitis C epidemic beginning as early as the 1920s.

“Cirrhosis rates vary greatly across countries, with Egypt having the highest level related to an iatrogenic epidemic of hepatitis C that began as early as the 1920s.101”

• cites [101] Frank, 2000, The role of parenteral antischistosomal therapy in the spread of hepatitis C virus in Egypt, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

CHERG reported a cross-validation study but no metrics of model performance such as uncertainty interval coverage or prediction error.

“they reported undertaking a cross-validation study but no metrics of model performance were reported such as the coverage of their UIs or a measure of prediction error”

May combine two claims.

From 1990 to 2010, MDG-related years of life lost declined by 2.0% per year, while non-MDG-related years of life lost increased by 0.8% per year.

“the MDG-related YLLs were declining at 2·0% per year, whereas the non-MDG related YLLs were increasing at 0·8% per year”

May combine two claims.

GBD estimated 17,670 deaths related to direct conflict in 2010, but this is not the total number of conflict-related deaths because indirect deaths are excluded.

“the 17 670 deaths related to direct conflict estimated for 2010. This number should be interpreted with great caution. First, in the ICD cause list, only direct deaths are assigned to this cause; 17 670 is not the total number of deaths related to conflict, which would include indirect deaths mediated through various mechanisms such as the destruction of health-care infrastructure.”

May combine two claims.

Road deaths to pedestrians rose from 284,000 in 1990 to 461,000 in 2010 and were the major subcause.

“Road deaths to pedestrians were the major cause, rising from 284 000 in 1990 to 461 000 in 2010.”

May combine two claims.

CHERG used 578 country-years of vital registration data for 1998-2009 and 113 study years for 1980-2008, whereas GBD used 1125 country-years and 294 study years.

“CHERG reported using vital registration data for 578 country-years between 1998 and 2009, whereas we used 1125 country-years for that period. They used 113 study years between 1980 and 2008; by contrast, we used 294 years.”

• cites [20] Liu, 2012, Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

CHERG left out 10% of data at random in cross-validation, which previous studies show is the easiest prediction task.

“in their cross-validation study they left out 10% of the data at random; as shown in previous studies,23 this is the easiest task for prediction”

• cites [23] Lozano, 2011, Progress towards Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on maternal and child mortality: an updated systematic analysis, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Road deaths escalated in east Asia, south Asia, and eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa over the past two decades, while they decreased in western Europe and high-income North America.

“Regional detail shows road deaths in east Asia, south Asia, and eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa rapidly escalating over the past two decades, whereas in high-income areas with a history of road safety programmes such as western Europe and high-income North America, road deaths have decreased.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The GBD 2010 estimated 786,000 deaths due to hepatitis B and 499,000 due to hepatitis C in 2010.

“The total number of deaths due to hepatitis B in 2010 was estimated to be 786 000 and those due to hepatitis C 499 000.”

May combine two claims.

CHERG used multinomial logistic models to estimate six causes simultaneously, a method found to perform worse than modelling causes individually and then scaling to all-cause mortality.

“They used multinomial logistic models to make estimates for six causes of death simultaneously, a method found to perform worse than modelling causes individually and then scaling to all-cause mortality (appendix pp 146–148).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Because of the variety of data sources and their associated biases, cause of death assessments are inherently uncertain and subject to vigorous debate.

“Because of the variety of data sources and their associated biases, cause of death assessments are inherently uncertain and subject to vigorous debate.6–8”

• cites [6] Abouzahr, 2011, New estimates of maternal mortality and how to interpret them: choice or confusion?, Reprod Health Matters sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [7] Grassly, 2004, Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: the estimation and application of plausibility bounds, Sex Transm Infect sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [8] Cooper, 1998, Disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa: what should we conclude in the absence of data?, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The cause of death analysis was undertaken at the country level for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010, although results are reported at the regional level for 1990 and 2010.

“Although results are reported in this Article at the regional level for 1990 and 2010, the cause of death analysis has been undertaken at the country level for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010.”

May combine two claims.

Population growth, increased average age of the world's population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases.

“Population growth, increased average age of the world’s population, and largely decreasing age-specific, sex-specific, and cause-specific death rates combine to drive a broad shift from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes towards non-communicable diseases.”

May combine two claims.

Use of longer time series improves the performance of many estimation models; because data before 1980 are much sparser for developing countries, the analysis was restricted to 1980-2010.

“Use of longer time series improves the performance of many types of estimation models; data from before 1980, however, are much sparser for developing countries so we restricted the analysis to 1980–2010.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Over the 5-year duration of GBD 2010, all published and unpublished data sources relevant to estimating causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 were sought.

“Over the 5-year duration of the GBD 2010, we sought to identify all published and unpublished data sources relevant to estimating causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group were constrained to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

“We constrained cause-specific fractions within every age-sex group to sum to total mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

By comparing with other sources such as vital registration data, police reports were assessed for likely completeness and national coverage.

“By comparing with other sources such as vital registration data, we assessed whether police reports were likely to be complete and cover the entire country.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In some cases, time series estimation can be substantially affected by outliers.

“In some cases, however, time series estimation can be substantially affected by these outliers.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Completeness for under age 5 years was assessed by comparing registration data with survey and census data on child mortality.

“We assessed completeness for under age 5 years by comparing registration data with survey and census data on child mortality.”

May combine two claims.

Higher uncertainty interval coverage suggests intervals that are too large, while coverage below 95% suggests intervals that are too narrow.

“Higher coverage suggests that UIs are too large and lower than 95% suggest UIs are too narrow.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Because death rates fluctuate stochastically, a good model is not expected to predict the observed year-to-year trend 100% of the time.

“Because of stochastic fluctuation in death rates, we do not expect a good model to predict the trend observed in the data 100% of the time.”

May combine two claims.

Model performance was assessed with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% uncertainty intervals.

“We assessed model performance with rigorous out-of-sample testing of prediction error and the validity of 95% UIs.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In GBD 1990, major garbage codes were identified and simple algorithms proposed to redistribute these proportionately to various target codes that were the likely underlying causes of death.

“In the GBD 1990, major garbage codes were identified and simple algorithms proposed to redistribute these proportionately to various causes (called “target codes”) that were the likely underlying causes of death.49”

• cites [49] Murray, 1996Not checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

All available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 were sought from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries.

“We attempted to identify all available data on causes of death for 187 countries from 1980 to 2010 from vital registration, verbal autopsy, mortality surveillance, censuses, surveys, hospitals, police records, and mortuaries.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Murray and Lopez introduced the notion of garbage codes in GBD 1990 and proposed methods to redistribute deaths assigned to garbage codes to probable underlying causes.

“Murray and Lopez43 introduced the notion of “garbage codes” in the GBD 1990 and proposed methods to redistribute deaths assigned to garbage codes to probable underlying causes of death.”

• cites [43] Murray, 1996, Estimating causes of death: new methods and global and regional application for 1990Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The sponsor of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

“The sponsor of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Six different modelling strategies were applied to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data.

“We applied six different modelling strategies to estimate cause-specific mortality trends depending on the strength of the data.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The corresponding author had full access to all data in the study and final responsibility to submit for publication.

“The corresponding author had full access to all of the data in the study and the final responsibility to submit for publication.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Because single-cause models were developed, it was imperative as a final step to ensure that individual cause estimates summed to the all-cause mortality estimate for every age-sex-country-year group.

“Because we had developed single-cause models, it was imperative as a final step to ensure that individual cause estimates summed to the all-cause mortality estimate for every age-sex-country-year group.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The effect of including data on causes of death with completeness lower than 70% was investigated by re-running cause of death models for major causes of death in children younger than 5 years in five different ways.

“We re-ran cause of death models for the major causes of death in children younger than 5 years in five different ways: excluding all data with completeness lower than 30%, lower than 40%, lower than 50%, lower than 60%, and lower than 70%.”

May combine two claims.

In models using the log of the death rate, dropping zero-death observations or substituting a small number for zero observations can both introduce bias.

“For models using the log of the death rate, either observations that record zero deaths are dropped or an arbitrary small number is substituted for zero observations; both approaches can lead to bias.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Data quality was assessed and enhanced following six steps.

“We assessed and enhanced data quality following six steps outlined in more detail here:”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

CODEm has been used in published studies to analyse maternal mortality, breast and cervical cancer mortality, and malaria mortality.

“CODEm was used to analyse maternal mortality, breast and cervical cancer mortality, and malaria mortality in published studies.22,25,31”

• cites [22] Hogan, 2010, Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980–2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [25] Murray, 2012, Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [31] Forouzanfar, 2011, Breast and cervical cancer in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Data quality was assessed for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death.

“We assessed data quality for completeness, diagnostic accuracy, missing data, stochastic variations, and probable causes of death.”

May combine two claims.

Twenty-one site-years of data based on deaths in health facilities were included, but only injury deaths from this source were incorporated because of known bias.

“Additionally, we included 21 site-years of data based on deaths in health facilities. However, we chose to only incorporate deaths due to injury from this source because of known bias.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Out-of-sample predictive validity testing mimics the task required of a good cause of death model.

“In this way, the out-of-sample predictive validity testing mimics the task required of a good cause of death model.”

May combine two claims.

Watt and colleagues assumed Hib does not cause death in people older than 2 years, but observational data show Hib mortality at all ages.

“Watt and colleagues assumed that Hib in individuals older than 2 years does not cause death; the available observational data,81–84 however, show Hib mortality at all ages.”

• cites [81] Shibli, 2010, Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized patients in northern Israel, Isr Med Assoc JNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [82] Köksal, 2010, Etiological agents of community-acquired pneumonia in adult patients in Turkey; a multicentric, cross-sectional study, Tuberk ToraksNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [83] Maruyama, 2008, A prospective comparison of nursing home-acquired pneumonia with hospital-acquired pneumonia in non-intubated elderly, Respir Med sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [84] Maruyama, 2010, Community-acquired pneumonia and nursing home-acquired pneumonia in the very elderly patients, Respir Med sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Watt and colleagues estimated 292,000 Hib lower respiratory infection deaths for the year 2000.

“Watt and colleagues76 published in 2009 for the year 2000, an estimate of 292 000 deaths”

• cites [76] Watt, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Haemophilus influenza type b in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

The higher WHO rotavirus death numbers probably arose from higher all-cause under-5 deaths, a higher diarrhoea fraction, and a higher rotavirus fraction.

“Higher numbers were probably reported by WHO for three reasons: higher all-cause global deaths in children younger than 5 years than currently estimated by UNICEF or the GBD 2010; a much higher fraction of deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed at the time to diarrhoea; and a higher fraction of diarrhoea attributed to rotavirus.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

WHO reported 453,000 rotavirus deaths in children under 5 years alone in 2008.

“claims from WHO of 453 000 rotavirus deaths in children younger than 5 years alone in 2008.74”

• cites [74] 2012Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Because of huge heterogeneity of results and variation in the number of pathogens tested across studies, great caution should be used in interpreting the paper's findings on diarrhoea aetiologies.

“Because of both the huge heterogeneity of results and the variation in the number of pathogens tested across studies, great caution should be used in interpreting our findings on the diarrhoea aetiologies.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Many diarrhoea pathogens can be cultured from the stool of individuals who do not have diarrhoea.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

O'Brien and colleagues published 826,000 pneumococcal lower respiratory infection deaths for the year 2000.

“contrast sharply with the 826 000 for the year 2000 published by O’Brien and colleagues.35”

• cites [35] O'Burien, 2009, Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae in children younger than 5 years: global estimates, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

WHO's 2005 report estimated abortion caused 8% of maternal deaths, while its 2008 study estimated 14%.

“The 2005 WHO report estimated that abortion caused only 8% of maternal deaths but 14% in the 2008 study.16”

• cites [16] Mathers, 2008Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Death rates from forces of nature increased by 336% comparing 1990 to 2010, because of the earthquake in Haiti in 2010.

“Death rates from forces of nature also massively increased (by 336%) comparing 1990 to 2010 because of the earthquake in Haiti in 2010.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Observational data suggest substantial regional variation in pneumococcus, and pneumococcus might be less common in south Asia.

“These observational data suggest substantial variation across regions; for example, pneumococcus might be less common in south Asia.”

May combine two claims.

GBD and WHO tuberculosis analyses use different methods but do not yield substantially different aggregate conclusions.

“Our analysis and that of WHO use fundamentally different methods but do not yield, at the aggregate level, substantially different conclusions.”

May combine two claims.

GBD used both vaccine trial and observational data to generate regional pathogen breakdowns, giving extra weight to trials, and still found variation by region and age.

“We used both the trials and observational data to generate different breakdowns by pathogen by region giving extra weight to the trials; our findings, however, still showed variation by region and age.”

May combine two claims.

Maternal deaths reported by GBD 2010 are after CoDCorrect, which reduced the global number of maternal deaths by 9.8%.

“the deaths due to maternal causes reported here are after the application of the CoDCorrect algorithm, which is a strength of the comprehensive burden of disease approach. The global number of deaths due to maternal causes was reduced by 9·8% through the application of CoDCorrect.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV, so the role of RSV in post-neonatal lower respiratory deaths needs the most attention.

“Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV, so the extent to which RSV is a major cause of post-neonatal lower respiratory deaths needs the most attention.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Most studies show high fractions of neonatal lower respiratory deaths due to RSV.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Variation in sampling, culturing, and identification protocols across studies might account for some heterogeneity.

“Studies, however, vary markedly in their sampling, culturing, and identification protocols, which might also account for some heterogeneity.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Differences between GBD and CHERG neonatal cause estimates must arise from the datasets used, adjustments to the data, or modelling strategies.

“Differences must arise from any or all of the following: the datasets used, the adjustments to the data, and the modelling strategies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

GBD 2010 estimates of the fraction of maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS come from a review and statistical analysis of available data.

“In GBD 2010, our estimates of the fraction of maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS come from a review and statistical analysis of available data that provide a detailed breakdown of maternal deaths.”

May combine two claims.

CHERG's model structure does not allow for spatial or temporal patterns in residuals, probably substantially reducing model performance.

“Their model structure does not allow for spatial or temporal patterns in the residuals, probably substantially reducing model performance.22”

• cites [22] Hogan, 2010, Maternal mortality for 181 countries, 1980–2008: a systematic analysis of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 5, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

CHERG's differential treatment of some causes and not others in its modelling strategy might also have caused distortions in the results.

“The differential treatment of some causes and not others in the modelling strategy might also have caused distortions in the results.”

May combine two claims.

GBD could not develop uncertainty distributions around garbage code redistribution algorithms, so uncertainty intervals for some causes might be underestimated.

“We were not able to develop uncertainty distributions around garbage code redistribution algorithms; to the extent that this is poorly known, our UIs for some causes might be underestimated.”

May combine two claims.

If all hepatitis-related deaths were directly counted in the main GBD 2010 cause list, hepatitis B would rank 15th and hepatitis C 25th among causes of death.

“If all deaths related to these diseases were directly counted in the main GBD 2010 cause list, hepatitis B would be the 15th ranked cause of death and hepatitis C would be the 25th ranked cause of death.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Where natural history models have been used, they potentially tend to yield higher estimates than more empirical strategies such as CODEm.

“Where natural history models have been used, these approaches potentially will tend to yield higher estimates than those using more empirical strategies such as CODEm.”

May combine two claims.

GBD's use of CODEm for most major causes means its uncertainty intervals have mostly been shown valid, but for causes using other methods the intervals have not been independently validated.

“our use of CODEm for most major causes of death means that our UIs have in most cases been shown to be valid, but for causes where we have had to use other methods such as negative binomial, fixed proportion, or natural history models, the UIs have not been independently validated.”

May combine two claims.

For some causes such as kidney cancer, poisonings, or paralytic ileus, only weak covariates explain spatial or temporal variation, so model estimates will have wide uncertainty intervals.

“for some causes of death such as kidney cancer, poisonings, or paralytic ileus, only weak covariates have been identified that explain the spatial or temporal variation in the cause. Inevitably, model estimates for these causes will have wide UIs.”

May combine two claims.

Data on cause of death might not always accurately capture the underlying cause, and autopsy studies show that medically certified causes of death might be incorrect.

“data on cause of death, even in settings with medical certification, might not always accurately capture the underlying cause of death. Results from autopsy studies104–106 have shown that medically certified causes of death might be incorrect.”

• cites [104] Roulson, 2005, Discrepancies between clinical and autopsy diagnosis and the value of post mortem histology; a meta-analysis and review, Histopathology sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [105] Sonderegger-Iseli, 2000, Diagnostic errors in three medical eras: a necropsy study, Lancet sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [106]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.