Changes in Medicare Costs with the Growth of Hospice Care in Nursing Homes
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Nursing home residents' use of hospice has substantially increased. Whether this increase in hospice use reduces end-of-life expenditures is unknown. METHODS: The expansion of hospice between 2004 and 2009 created a natural experiment, allowing us to conduct a difference-in-differences matched analysis to examine changes in Medicare expenditures in the last year of life that were associated with this expansion. We also assessed intensive care unit (ICU) use in the last 30 days of life and, for patients with advanced dementia, feeding-tube use and hospital transfers within the last 90 days of life. We compared a subset of hospice users from 2009, whose use of hospice was attributed to hospice expansion, with a matched subset of non-hospice users from 2004, who were considered likely to have used hospice had they died in 2009. RESULTS: Of 786,328 nursing home decedents, 27.6% in 2004 and 39.8% in 2009 elected to use hospice. The 2004 and 2009 matched hospice and nonhospice cohorts were similar (mean age, 85 years; 35% male; 25% with cancer). The increase in hospice use was associated with significant decreases in the rates of hospital transfers (2.4 percentage-point reduction), feeding-tube use (1.2 percentage-point reduction), and ICU use (7.1 percentage-point reduction). The mean length of stay in hospice increased from 72.1 days in 2004 to 92.6 days in 2009. Between 2004 and 2009, the expansion of hospice was associated with a mean net increase in Medicare expenditures of $6,761 (95% confidence interval, 6,335 to 7,186), reflecting greater additional spending on hospice care ($10,191) than reduced spending on hospital and other care ($3,430). CONCLUSIONS: The growth in hospice care for nursing home residents was associated with less aggressive care near death but at an overall increase in Medicare expenditures. (Funded by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the National Institute on Aging.).
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Expansion of hospice care is associated with fewer individuals with dementia having more than two hospitalizations for any reason or more than one hospitalization for pneumonia, urinary tract infection, dehydration or sepsis in the last 90 days of life.
“Expansion of hospice care is associated with fewer individuals with dementia having more than two hospitalizations for any reason or more than one hospitalization for pneumonia, urinary tract infection, dehydration or sepsis in the last 90 days of life.775”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [775]
The Methods (Outcomes) define “burdensome transitions” using the hospitalization thresholds in the claim, and the Results (Changes in the Aggressiveness of End-of-Life Care) report a reduction in that outcome among hospice users. The finding applies specifically to nursing home decedents with advanced dementia, not to all individuals with dementia. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredExpansion of hospice care is associated with fewer individuals with dementia having more than two hospitalizations for any reason or more than one hospitalization for pneumonia, urinary tract infection, dehydration or sepsis in the last 90 days of life.
“Expansion of hospice care is associated with fewer individuals with dementia having more than two hospitalizations for any reason or more than one hospitalization for pneumonia, urinary tract infection, dehydration or sepsis in the last 90 days of life. 933”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [933]
The Results section reports fewer burdensome transitions in the last 90 days of life among hospice users with advanced dementia. The Methods section defines those transitions using the hospitalization thresholds in the claim. The finding concerns nursing home decedents with advanced dementia, not individuals with dementia generally. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWith the expansion of Medicare-supported hospice care, the use of feeding tubes in the last three to six months of life has decreased for individuals with Alzheimer's or other dementias.
“With the expansion of Medicare‐supported hospice care, the use of feeding tubes in the last three to six months of life has decreased for individuals with Alzheimer's or other dementias. 928 , 933”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [933]
The Results section reports a 1.2-percentage-point decrease in feeding-tube insertions associated with hospice use among nursing home residents with advanced dementia in the last 90 days of life. The claim extends this finding to people with Alzheimer's or other dementias generally and to a three-to-six-month period; the paper's reported measure covers only the last three months. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Targeting Enhanced Services Toward High-Cost, High-Need Medicare Patients
Dattalo, M., Nothelle, S. K., & Chapman, E. N. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-28137-7_2 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Investing in Better Care for Patients Dying in Nursing Homes
Hamel, M. B. (2015) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejme1502735 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
What Predicts Hospice Use in the Nursing Home?
Reinhardt, J. P. (2020) · Journal of Social Work in End-of-Life & Palliative Care · doi:10.1080/15524256.2020.1800553 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Administrative Data for Research: An Increasingly Powerful Tool, but Still With Caveats
Sloane, P. D., Mor, V., & Preisser, J. S. (2018) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2017.11.015 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationThe application of palliative care in dementia
Tajari, M., & Pandpazir, M. (2019) · Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care · doi:10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_105_18 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Drageset, J., & Eide, G. E. (2020) · SAGE Open Nursing · doi:10.1177/2377960820907778 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
What Can Economics Say About Alzheimer's Disease?
Chandra, A., Coile, C., & Mommaerts, C. (2020) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w27760 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Lake, D. T., Kumar, S., Geng, F., & Gozalo, P. L. (2025) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.70164 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationProportion of Decedents’ Expenditures Among Recent Reductions in Medicare Expenditures
Weeks, W. B., Kirkland, K. B., Freeh, C., & Weinstein, J. N. (2018) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2017.8213 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
A finest balancing score algorithm to avoid common pitfalls of propensity score matchingPreprint
Bestehorn, F., Bestehorn, M., Bestehorn, M., & Kirches, C. (2018) · arXiv (Cornell University) · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End-of-Life Care
B, J. G. A., Howard, D. H., Leder-Luis, J., & Caputi, T. L. (2024) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.20230328 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
DeForge, C. E., Ma, H. S., Dick, A. W., Stone, P. W., Orewa, G. N., Dhingra, L. K., Portenoy, R. K., & Quigley, D. D. (2025) · American Journal of Hospice and Palliative Medicine® · doi:10.1177/10499091251313761 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Causal inference with cross-temporal design
Cao, Y., Gozalo, P. L., & Gutman, R. (2025) · Biometrics · doi:10.1093/biomtc/ujae163 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationTang, P.-U., Wu, I.-H., Lao, I.-H., Leong, W., & Hu, C. (2020) · Innovations in Digital Health Diagnostics and Biomarkers · doi:10.36401/iddb-20-04 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The Medicare Hospice Benefit in Nursing Homes: Issues, Incentives, and Utilization
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Taylor, R. A., Dionne-Odom, J. N., Currie, E. R., Stockdill, M., & Bakitas, M. A. (2019) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/med/9780190862374.003.0055 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
How much end‐of‐life care is of low value
Scott, I. A. (2018) · Internal Medicine Journal · doi:10.1111/imj.14054 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Survival Outcomes of Medicare‐Covered Elderly US Population With Myasthenia Gravis
Li, Y., Bruckman, D., Schold, J. D., Claytor, B., Silvestri, N. J., Hehir, M. K., & Lee, I. (2025) · Muscle & Nerve · doi:10.1002/mus.70045 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Neuropalliative Care in Severe Acute Brain Injury and Stroke
Creutzfeldt, C. J. (2025) · CONTINUUM Lifelong Learning in Neurology · doi:10.1212/cont.0000000000001636 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Patterns of Expenditure in Healthcare for Elderly in Shanghai
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McGrath, L. B., & Goodlin, S. J. (2017) · Current Cardiovascular Risk Reports · doi:10.1007/s12170-017-0530-0 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Why Do Vote-by-Mail Elections Boost Voter Turnout?Preprint
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Reddy, A., Gunnink, E. J., Rojas, J., Nelson, K. N., & Wong, E. S. (2024) · Journal of General Internal Medicine · doi:10.1007/s11606-024-09169-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Institutional Special Needs Plans and End-of-Life Outcomes for Nursing Home Residents With Dementia
White, E. M., Gozalo, P. L., Santostefano, C. M., Kosar, C. M., McGarry, B. E., Geng, F., Zorowitz, R. A., Grabowski, D. C., Mor, V., & Rahman, M. (2026) · JAMA Health Forum · doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2026.1649 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationFactors of Hospitals Associated With an Independent Hospice Care Unit
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Palliative Care, Hospice Care, Advance Care Planning, and Advance Directives
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Wang, L., & Nelson, J. W. (2019) · International Journal for Human Caring · doi:10.20467/1091-5710.23.4.275
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Insurance Coverage for Pregnant Women: Assessing Patterns, Policy Impacts and Methods for Evaluation
Daw, J. R. (2018) · Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University)
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- Authors
- Gozalo, P., Plotzke, M., Mor, V., Miller, S. C., & Teno, J. M.
- Affiliations
- Brown University (US)
- Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (US)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2015-05-07
- Volume
- 372
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1823-1831
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC4465278
- OpenAlex
- W2139099731
- Cited by
- 117
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 14 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 5
- FWCI
- 17.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2p01ag027296-16)
- National Institute on Aging (AG027296, P01AG-027296)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Geriatric Care and Nursing Homes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative and Oncologic Care
- Keywords
- hospice care, nursing home residents, Medicare spending, end-of-life care, intensive care utilization, tube feeding, hospital transfer, advanced dementia, last year of life, natural experiment
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Health Expenditures, Female, Medicare, Humans, Male, Nursing Homes, Terminal Care, United States, Least-Squares Analysis, Health Care Costs, Hospice Care, Propensity Score
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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