Modified fuzzy group decision-making approach to cost overrun risk assessment of power plant projects
Open accessAbstract
Cost overrun risk assessment in the preliminary stages of a power plant project is laden with subjectivity, uncertainty, imprecision, and the vagueness of expert judgment. Current fuzzy approaches to risk assessment in such projects specifically require improvements in the reliability and aggregation process of experts’ judgments as well as the incorporation of project phase–based risk assessment to comprehend the sources of the risks and their corresponding effects on cost overruns. In response, this study proposes a modified fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) and assesses cost overrun risks considering different project phases [(1) design and procurement, and (2) construction and commissioning] of the power plant projects of varying types, sizes/capacities, and contracts. The proposed methodology is applied to 10 different project scenarios to better understand the context of project risks and their profile and identify the critical cost overrun risks involved. This study will aid the comprehensive assessment of risks and increase the accuracy of project budgeting and contingency allocation decisions.
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Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-ANP require many tedious pairwise comparisons.
“However, Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-ANP have similar drawbacks, requiring many tedious pairwise comparisons [40,41].”
From Cost Overrun Risk Assessment and Prediction in Construction Projects: A Bayesian Network Classifier Approach (2022) · cites this paper as [41]
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- Authors
- Islam, M. S., Nepal, M. P., & Skitmore, M.
- Affiliations
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Nepal, Madhav P.
- Venue
- Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
- Published
- 2019-02
- Volume
- 145
- Issue
- 2
- ISSN
- 0733-9364 (ISSN-L)
- 1943-7862
- OpenAlex
- W2902291314
- Cited by
- 60
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 3
- FWCI
- 3.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- eprints.qut.edu.au
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (publishedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Construction Project Management and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Multi-Criteria Decision Making
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
- Keywords
- power plant projects, fuzzy group decision making, risk assessment, project phases, expert judgment aggregation, project cost management
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