Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA
Abstract
Continental-scale studies of western North America have attributed recent increases in annual area burned and fire size to a warming climate, but these studies have focussed on large fires and have left the issues of fire severity and ignition frequency unaddressed. Lightning ignitions, any of which could burn a large area given appropriate conditions for fire spread, could be the first indication of more frequent fire. We examined the relationship between snowpack and the ignition and size of fires that occurred in Yosemite National Park, California (area 3027 km2), between 1984 and 2005. During this period, 1870 fires burned 77 718 ha. Decreased spring snowpack exponentially increased the number of lightning-ignited fires. Snowpack mediated lightning-ignited fires by decreasing the proportion of lightning strikes that caused lightning-ignited fires and through fewer lightning strikes in years with deep snowpack. We also quantified fire severity for the 103 fires >40 ha with satellite fire-severity indices using 23 years of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. The proportion of the landscape that burned at higher severities and the complexity of higher-severity burn patches increased with the log10 of annual area burned. Using one snowpack forecast, we project that the number of lightning-ignited fires will increase 19.1% by 2020 to 2049 and the annual area burned at high severity will increase 21.9%. Climate-induced decreases in snowpack and the concomitant increase in fire severity suggest that existing assumptions may be understated – fires may become more frequent and more severe.
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Other studies point to an increase in the number of wildfires due to increased spring and summer temperatures, early snowmelt, and decreased precipitation.
“Other studies point to an increase in the number of wildfires due to increased spring and summer temperatures, early snowmelt, and decreased precipitation [9,56,57].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [57]
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- Authors
- Lutz, J. A., van Wagtendonk, J. W., Thode, A. E., Miller, J. D., & Franklin, J. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- BUS Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Yosemite Field Station, El Portal, CA 95318, USA.
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- US Forest Service (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lutz, James A.
- Venue
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Publisher
- CSIRO Publishing
- Published
- 2009-10-27
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 765-774
- ISSN
- 1049-8001 (ISSN-L)
- 1448-5516
- OpenAlex
- W2099538950
- Cited by
- 125
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 5 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 10.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Wildland Fire (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- lightning ignition, fire severity, snowpack, climate change, forest fires, Yosemite National Park, Landsat, climate change projections, fire frequency
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