Controls on interannual variability in lightning-caused fire activity in the western US
Open accessAbstract
Lightning-caused wildfires account for a majority of burned area across the western United States (US), yet lightning remains among the more unpredictable spatiotemporal aspects of the fire environment and a challenge for both modeling and managing fire activity. A data synthesis of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, climate and fire data across the western US from 1992 to 2013 was conducted to better understand geographic variability in lightning-caused wildfire and the factors that influence interannual variability in lightning-caused wildfire at regional scales. Distinct geographic variability occurred in the proportion of fires and area burned attributed to lightning, with a majority of fires in the interior western US attributed to lightning. Lightning ignition efficiency was highest across the western portion of the region due to the concomitance of peak lightning frequency and annual nadir in fuel moisture in mid-to-late summer. For most regions the number of total and dry lightning strikes exhibited strong interannual correlation with the number of lightning-caused fires, yet were a poor predictor of area burned at regional scales. Commonality in climate–fire relationships for regional annual area burned by lightning- versus human-ignited fires suggests climate conditions, rather than lightning activity, are the predominant control of interannual variability in area burned by lightning-caused fire across much of the western US.
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Several studies indicate that people are important in redistributing ignition sources, especially where lightning is rare or not concurrent with dry conditions.
“However, several studies suggest that humans play an important role in redistributing ignitions (20–22), particularly where lightning rarely occurs or where lightning is not concurrent with dry conditions (23).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [23]
Broad climate patterns influence how often both human- and lightning-ignited fires occur.
“This pattern has been observed previously in the western United States (23) and suggests that large-scale climate drivers affect the frequency of both human- and lightning-caused fires.”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [23]
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- Authors
- Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Balch, J. K., & Bradley, B. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Idaho (US)
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Corresponding author
- Abatzoglou, John T
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2016-04-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 045005
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2336985578
- Cited by
- 116
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 7.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion)
- ScholarWorks@UMassAmherst (University of Massachusetts Amherst) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1520873)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AJ14G)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- interannual variability, fire-climate relationships, fuel moisture content, burned area, American West
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