The DOI matches its Crossref record; 18 of the 18 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States
Abstract
Despite growing knowledge of fire–environment linkages in the western USA, obtaining reliable estimates of relative wildfire likelihood remains a work in progress. The purpose of this study is to use updated fire observations during a 25-year period and a wide array of environmental variables in a statistical framework to produce high-resolution estimates of wildfire probability. Using the MaxEnt modelling technique, point-source fire observations that were sampled from area burned during the 1984–2008 time period were related to explanatory variables representing ignitions, flammable vegetation (i.e. fuels), climate and topography. Model results were used to produce spatially explicit predictions of wildfire probability. To assess the effect of humans on the spatial patterns of wildfire likelihood, we built an alternative model that excluded all variables having a strong anthropogenic imprint. Results showed that wildfire probability in the western USA is far from uniform, with different areas responding to different environmental drivers. The effect of anthropogenic factors on wildfire probability varied by region but, on the whole, humans appear to inhibit fire activity in the western USA. Our results not only provide what appear to be robust predictions of wildfire likelihood, but also enhance understanding of long-term controls on wildfire activity. In addition, our wildfire probability maps provide better information for strategic planning of land-management activities, especially where fire regime knowledge is sparse.
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Cites
A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists
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“For example, although recent warming has led to increases in fire activity in some areas, notably through lengthening of drought periods and the fire season (Westerling et al. 2006), they may also impose moisture stress that will ultimately limit the continuity of fuels (Crimmin et al. 2011).”
BackgroundSelecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions
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A Project for Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity
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Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
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Self-citationClimatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance
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The interaction of fire, fuels, and climate across Rocky Mountain forests
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Self-citationHuman influence on California fire regimes
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Cited by
Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity
Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Batllori, E., Krawchuk, M. A., Van Dorn, J., Ganz, D. J., & Hayhoe, K. (2012) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es11-00345.1 · Cited by 959
Self-citationAdapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions
Prichard, S. J., Hessburg, P. F., Hagmann, R. K., Povak, N. A., Dobrowski, S. Z., Hurteau, M. D., Kane, V. R., Keane, R. E., Kobziar, L. N., Kolden, C. A., et al. (2021) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.2433 · Cited by 336
Self-citationA spatial database of wildfires in the United States, 1992-2011
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The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America
Parisien, M.-A., Miller, C., Parks, S. A., DeLancey, E. R., Robinne, F.-N., & Flannigan, M. D. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075005 · Cited by 166
Self-citationQuantifying the human influence on fire ignition across the western USA
Fusco, E. J., Abatzoglou, J. T., Balch, J. K., Finn, J. T., & Bradley, B. A. (2016) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1395 · Cited by 97
Metadata
- Authors
- Parisien, M.-A., Snetsinger, S., Greenberg, J. A., Nelson, C. R., Schoennagel, T., Dobrowski, S. Z., & Moritz, M. A.
- Venue
- International Journal of Wildland Fire
- Publisher
- CSIRO Publishing
- Published
- 2012-02-08
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 313-327
- ISSN
- 1049-8001 (ISSN-L)
- 1448-5516
- OpenAlex
- W2019446850
- Cited by
- 165
- References
- 18
- FWCI
- 8.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Parisien, M.-A., Snetsinger, S., Greenberg, J. A., Nelson, C. R., Schoennagel, T., Dobrowski, S. Z., & Moritz, M. A. (2012). Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf11044
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