Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
Open accessAbstract
Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning.
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Three fundamental limits to burning-available fuel, appropriate climate conditions and ignitions-have consistently been identified as important controls of fire activity across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
“Nonetheless, three fundamental limits to burning-available fuel, appropriate climate conditions and ignitions-have consistently been identified as important controls of fire activity across multiple spatial and temporal scales (Krawchuk et al., 2009).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Krawchuk et al., 2009
The Introduction (page unavailable) identifies vegetation to burn, combustion-promoting conditions, and ignitions as three basic requirements for wildfire. It does not establish that all three have consistently been important controls across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The Materials and Methods and Discussion (pages unavailable) instead note that ignition was rarely limiting at this study’s coarse, 10-year, 100-km resolution. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSeveral modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas and decreases in others.
“Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas of the globe, but to decreases in others (Scholze et al., 2006; Krawchuk et al., 2009; Pechony & Shindell, 2010).”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Krawchuk et al., 2009
Globally, it is very difficult to disaggregate the influence of humans on fire regimes.
“Globally, it is very difficult to disaggregate the influence of humans on fire regimes (Krawchuk et al., 2009; Lauk & Erb, 2009), so the pyric transition concept is yet to be subjected to a quantitative analysis.”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Krawchuk et al., 2009
The geographic distribution of fire has been mapped based on current global fire activity and classified into geographically distinct fire regimes called pyromes.
“The geographic distribution of fire has been mapped based on current global fire activity (Andela et al., 2019;Krawchuk et al., 2009) and classified into geographically distinct fire regimes called pyromes (Archibald, Lehmann, Gomez-Dans, & Bradstock, 2013).”
From Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers (2020) · cites this paper as Krawchuk et al., 2009
Area burned has been found to be a good global proxy for fire activity, especially as fire size is an important factor of post-fire impact to water resources.
“Area burned (AB) has been found to be a good global proxy for fire activity [23], especially as fire size is an important factor of post-fire impact to water resources [3].”
From A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire (2016) · cites this paper as [23]
In many places, lightning activity is an important factor of fire ignition that can lead to a large area burned when it occurs in remote areas.
“In many places of the world, lightning activity is an important factor of fire ignition [23] that can lead to a large area burned when it occurs in remote areas [29-31].”
From A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire (2016) · cites this paper as [23]
In coarse resolution models, anthropogenic effects are assumed to manifest primarily through the availability of ignitions.
“in coarse resolution models anthropogenic effects are assumed to manifest primarily through the availability of ignitions [19].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [19]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Krawchuk, M. A., Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., & Hayhoe, K.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- Texas Tech University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Moritz, Max A.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2009-04-08
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- e5102
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2662419
- OpenAlex
- W2090191602
- Cited by
- 1,000
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 69 · 2023: 84 · 2022: 87 · 2021: 75 · 2020: 50 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 65 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 58 · 2015: 57 · 2014: 62 · 2013: 62 · 2012: 56
- FWCI
- 35.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ThinkTech (Texas Tech University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Nature Conservancy
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- forest fires, climate change, fire probability, fire regimes, vegetation-climate interactions, lightning ignition, human influence on fire, fuel availability, temperature and precipitation, fire hotspots, global climate model projections, conservation planning
- MeSH terms
- Climate, Fires, Geography, Regression Analysis, Models, Statistical
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