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Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations
Open accessAbstract
Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.
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Citations
Cited by
Drought under global warming: a review
Dai, A. (2011) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.81 · Cited by 3,523
Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes
Allan, R. P., & Soden, B. J. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1160787 · Cited by 1,562
Dreary state of precipitation in global models
Stephens, G. L., L'Ecuyer, T., Forbes, R., Gettelmen, A., Golaz, J., Bodas‐Salcedo, A., Suzuki, K., Gabriel, P., & Haynes, J. (2010) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd014532 · Cited by 809
The effects of climate change on tropical birds
Şekercioğlu, Ç. H., Primack, R. B., & Wormworth, J. (2012) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.019 · Cited by 460
Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought
Zeng, N., Yoon, J.-H., Marengo, J. A., Subramaniam, A., Nobre, C. A., Mariotti, A., & Neelin, J. D. (2008) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/1/014002 · Cited by 373
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Metadata
- Authors
- Neelin, J. D., Münnich, M., Su, H., Meyerson, J. E., & Holloway, C. E.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2006-04-18
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6110-6115
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2107429431
- Cited by
- 498
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 14.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Neelin, J. D., Münnich, M., Su, H., Meyerson, J. E., & Holloway, C. E. (2006). Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601798103
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