Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes
Abstract
Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.
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Global climate models are unable to simulate the interannual variability in tropical precipitation extremes when compared to observations.
“or to simulate the interannual variability in tropical precipitation extremes when compared to observations [2, 3]”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [2]
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- Authors
- Allan, R. P., & Soden, B. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Miami (US)
- Corresponding author
- Allan, Richard P.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2008-09-12
- Volume
- 321
- Issue
- 5895
- Pages
- 1481-1484
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W2067715694
- Cited by
- 1,562
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 111 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 108 · 2023: 93 · 2022: 116 · 2021: 130 · 2020: 106 · 2019: 103 · 2018: 84 · 2017: 89 · 2016: 82 · 2015: 84 · 2014: 71 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 43.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (earth010002, earth010004, NE/C51785X/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, atmospheric warming, tropical precipitation, air humidity, surface temperature, climate model projections, anthropogenic climate change
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