The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond
Open accessAbstract
Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers' reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but not overt judgments, only after 4 years of age. Our results suggest that at the onset of human decision processes the mind contains an intuition of elementary probability that cannot be reduced to the encountered frequency of events or elementary heuristics.
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Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 · Cited by 28,810
The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.7455683 · Cited by 18,497
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Cited by
Intuitive statistics by 8-month-old infants
Xu, F., & Garcia, V. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0704450105 · Cited by 356
Precursors of logical reasoning in preverbal human infants
Cesana-Arlotti, N., Martín, A., Téglás, E., Vorobyova, L., Cetnarski, R., & Bonatti, L. L. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aao3539 · Cited by 285
Self-citationThe Infancy of the Human Brain
Dehaene-Lambertz, G., & Spelke, E. S. (2015) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.026 · Cited by 264
Rational variability in children's causal inferences: the sampling hypothesis
Denison, S., Bonawitz, E., Gopnik, A., & Griffiths, T. L. (2013) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2012.10.010 · Cited by 126
The violation-of-expectation paradigm: A conceptual overview.
Margoni, F., Surian, L., & Baillargeon, R. (2024) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000450 · Cited by 127
Metadata
- Authors
- Téglás, E., Girotto, V., Gonzalez, M., & Bonatti, L. L.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-27
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 48
- Pages
- 19156-19159
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2071682360
- Cited by
- 227
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 8.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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