Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty

Cosmides, L

doi:10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8

Cited by 1,293Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsBayesian Modeling and Causal InferenceClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty

Cosmides, L·1996·Cognition

DOI 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8

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Heuristics shaped by evolutionary pressures often perform remarkably well in natural settings despite their departure from statistical optimality.
“These heuristics, shaped by evolutionary pressures, often perform remarkably well in natural settings despite their departure from statistical optimality (Cosmides and Tooby 1996; Gigerenzer and Goldstein 1996; Gigerenzer and Brighton 2009; Gigerenzer 2020; Marewski and Schooler 2011).”
From The myth of the Bayesian brain (2025) · cites this paper as Cosmides and Tooby 1996
Natural selection tends to favor strategies that work well enough under real-world constraints, including limited time, energy, and computational capacity.
“Natural selection tends to favor strategies that work well enough under real-world constraints, including limited time, energy, and computational capacity.”
From The myth of the Bayesian brain (2025) · cites this paper as Cosmides and Tooby 1996
In these cases, participants are left to combine non-normalized sampled probability estimates for each hypothesis manually, and perhaps choose just one or combine them inappropriately.
“participants are left to combine the non-normalized sampled probability estimates for each hypothesis 'manually', and perhaps choose just one of the probabilities or perhaps combine them inappropriately [52][53][54].”
From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [52]

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“Similarly, the statistical relationship between helping in accordance with Hamilton's rule and fitness cannot be induced because it cannot, in principle, be observed during one's lifetime; the rule can be followed only if one has phylogenetically given decision rules that embody it ( Cosmides & Tooby, 1987, 1994 ).”
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Authors: Cosmides, L.
Affiliations: University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
Corresponding author: Cosmides, L
ORCID: Cosmides, L
Venue: Cognition
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 1996-01
Volume: 58
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-73
ISSN: 0010-0277 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8
OpenAlex: W2061173121
Cited by: 1,293
References: 82
Citations by year: 2026: 17 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 49 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 50 · 2014: 52 · 2013: 43 · 2012: 44
FWCI: 29.29
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Cognition (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords: spectral representation, base rate neglect, Bayesian reasoning, judgment under uncertainty, heuristics and biases, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, overconfidence, conjunction fallacy, probability representation, inductive reasoning

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Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty

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