The DOI matches its Crossref record; 27 of the 27 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead
Open accessAbstract
The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO 2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.
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Cites
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Self-citationCouplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry
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Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Knutti, R., & Friedlingstein, P. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106 · Cited by 3,217
Future CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K., & Matthews, H. D. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1188566 · Cited by 1,399
Are we adapting to climate change?
Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J. D., & Paterson, J. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.012 · Cited by 931
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Metadata
- Authors
- Ramanathan, V., & Feng, Y.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2008-09-23
- Volume
- 105
- Issue
- 38
- Pages
- 14245-14250
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W1994002679
- Cited by
- 368
- References
- 27
- FWCI
- 37.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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