The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
Open accessAbstract
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels.
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Citations
Cites
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975) · Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making · doi:10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_8 · Cited by 22,650
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
(1982) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511809477 · Cited by 8,240
Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 · Cited by 3,982
Self-citation
Cited by
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1810141115 · Cited by 3,139
Self-citationExceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn7950 · Cited by 1,931
“Tipping elements and their tipping points were treated independently in this assessment but there are multiple causal interactions between them with risks of triggering cascades among CTPs (2, 4, 16), somemediated through temperature.”
InfluentialThe emergence and evolution of Earth System Science
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Schellnhuber, H. J., Dube, O. P., Dutreuil, S., Lenton, T. M., & Lubchenco, J. (2020) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0005-6 · Cited by 566
Self-citationIs climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?
Huggel, C., Clague, J. J., & Korup, O. (2012) · Earth Surface Processes and Landforms · doi:10.1002/esp.2223 · Cited by 522
GHG T argets as I nsurance A gainst C atastrophic C limate D amages
WEITZMAN, M. L. (2012) · Journal of Public Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9779.2011.01539.x · Cited by 373
Metadata
- Authors
- Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Held, H., Dawson, R., & Schellnhuber, H. J.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2009-03-31
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 5041-5046
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2163065403
- Cited by
- 393
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 24.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Held, H., Dawson, R., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2009). Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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