The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 87 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s
Open accessAbstract
Global demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and fuel is now a major driver of cropland and pasture expansion across much of the developing world. Whether these new agricultural lands replace forests, degraded forests, or grasslands greatly influences the environmental consequences of expansion. Although the general pattern is known, there still is no definitive quantification of these land-cover changes. Here we analyze the rich, pan-tropical database of classified Landsat scenes created by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations to examine pathways of agricultural expansion across the major tropical forest regions in the 1980s and 1990s and use this information to highlight the future land conversions that probably will be needed to meet mounting demand for agricultural products. Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests, and another 28% came from disturbed forests. This study underscores the potential consequences of unabated agricultural expansion for forest conservation and carbon emissions.
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51 Not checked yet · 34 Own result · 20 Own method · 6 Own interpretation · 6 No basis given
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Shrubland conversion provided most of the remaining 8% of expansion.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across the tropics, we find that between 1980 and 2000 more than 55% of new agricultural land came at the expense of intact forests”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“Our results reveal that, overall, more than 55% of this new agricultural land came from intact forests (Fig. 2).”
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Results · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An additional 28% of new agricultural land came from disturbed forests that previously had been affected by shifting cultivation, logging, fuel wood collection, or other forms of gradual degradation (Fig. 2).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, expansion in forest-rich regions of Latin America, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia relied predominately on clearing intact forests for new agricultural land.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The greatest expansion of agricultural land in Latin America occurred for cattle pastures, which increased by ∼35 million ha in South America and ∼7 million ha in Central America (14).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the relative amount of agricultural expansion from clearing of intact forest increased by 6% between the 1980s and 1990s”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“whereas clearing of disturbed forest and shrubland decreased by 4% and 2% respectively (Table S1).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Intact forests had become a more dominant source of new agricultural land by 2000.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, shrublands were substantial sources of new cropland in South America and East Africa.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“whereas clearing of disturbed forest and shrubland decreased by 4% and 2% respectively (Table S1).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 39
- Probably not a substantial claim. 20
In the paper
“Cropland areas increased by ∼5 million ha in South America between 1980 and 2000, more than double the increase in Central America.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most new agricultural land was established from intact and disturbed forests in Latin America, but strong geographic variation exists (Fig. 3).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“East Africa increased clearing of intact forests by ∼20%, and conversion of disturbed forests decreased by the same amount.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The opposite trend prevailed in West Africa: 20% less agricultural land came from intact forests, and 20% more came from disturbed forests in the 1990s than in the 1980s.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, although forest conversion dominated in the dense humid rainforest regions, shrubland (i.e., cerrado) became increasingly important in more sparsely forested areas.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Sugarcane and soybeans are responsible for the majority of the increase in South America, whereas there were few changes in crop types across maize-dominated Central America (14).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, in Central Africa agricultural land was taken largely from intact forests, whereas East and West Africa used roughly equal amounts of intact and disturbed forests.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By the end of the 1990s, conversion of agricultural land accounted for nearly 70% of new plantations, indicating a reduction in forest clearing for this purpose.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“During the 1980s, roughly half of new plantations were carved from forests; most of the remaining area came from conversion of agricultural land.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, between 1980 and 2000 cropland area increased by ∼50% in East Africa and by ∼25% in West Africa.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Shrublands and disturbed forests each provided a quarter of the new cropland in the 1980s but only 13% and 20%, respectively, by the 1990s (Table S1).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Shrublands were converted primarily in regions with little forest cover and constituted a significant source of expanding agricultural land only in East Africa (Fig. 4).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, the role of clearing intact forests in expanding agricultural area decreased from 73% to 67% in Central America, and that of disturbed forests had become more important by 2000.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Southeast Asia relied on intact forests for nearly 60% of new agricultural land and on disturbed forests for more than 30%.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Southern Asia depended on disturbed forests for ∼60% of new land and on intact forests for only 35% (Fig. 5).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Southeast Asia is the only region where tree plantations occupy a large portion of total agricultural land, and the area of tree plantations increased from roughly 11 million ha to 17.4 million ha between 1980 and 2000 (14).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Central Africa, 75% of new agricultural land came from forests in the 1980s, but this percentage decreased by ∼10% during the 1990s as disturbed forests became more important sources (Table S1).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This finding confirms that agricultural expansion did not arise largely from previously cleared land and indeed has been a major driver of deforestation and the associated carbon emissions (31).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Continental and insular Southeast Asia were largely unaffected because they contain almost no area with <10% forest cover according to the FAO landcover map used to design the sampling scheme (34).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Agricultural expansion is a major driver of tropical deforestation (17)(18)(19)(20), but not all expansion results in the loss of intact forests: shrublands, pasture, logged or regrowing forests, degraded land, and shifting cultivation fields are all sources for new permanent agriculture (21)(22)(23).”
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Land sources may have had intermediate uses within a decade, but our investigation captured only the two end points.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“In addition, we evaluated the state-level agricultural expansion across Brazil and found that the majority of expansion occurring in the 1980s and 1990s was in the mid and northern regions of the country, indicating that we captured most agricultural expansion in this region (40).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [40]
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“For example, a recent analysis of national agricultural and deforestation statistics for 1990-2005 by Pin Koh and Wilcove (22) found that more than half the area of new plantations was carved from forests.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [22] source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Because these land-use/land-cover changes were assessed at 10-y intervals, the results are intended to describe decadal trends in land-cover change and therefore can mask short-term, year-to-year variations in land use.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Parts of the cerrado in South America were excluded from the analysis, but most agricultural changes in this region were crop type or pasture substitution rather than increases in total agricultural land.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Indeed, the expansion of the global agricultural land area during the 1980s and 1990s occurred primarily in developing countries where total agricultural land (croplands, pastures, and temporary agriculture) increased by 629 million ha while developed countries lost 335 million ha (4,14).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] source
- Not checked yetcites [14]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The FAO Landsat database provides major advances in data for assessing land sources for agricultural lands but does have inherent uncertainties and weaknesses.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This omission potentially could lead to a bias toward forests as the land sources in some cases.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in recent decades most expansion in agricultural area occurred in or near forest frontiers, and very little occurred in dry zones, so excluding areas with <10% forest cover should not affect the results substantially.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Typically such detailed imagery processing is reserved for a single Landsat scene or small areas; by contrast, the FAO database provides a major advance by combining high-resolution analysis with a pan-tropical scale over a 20-y period.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, with policies such as REDD in place, farmers and large-scale producers would have greater incentives to improve management of previously cleared land and receive carbon payments for avoiding carbon release from further deforestation (45,46).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The FAO estimated sampling error for forest cover as ±3.6% for the pan-tropics, ±8.0% for Africa, ±4.7% for Latin America, and ±8.2% for Asia (34).”
- Also stated in: § Methods · hedged
“Sampling error, determined by the sampling design and variation within the population, was estimated for forest cover by the FAO as ±3.6% for the pantropics, ±8.0% for Africa, ±4.7% for Latin America, and ±8.2% for Asia (34).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Methods · hedged
In the paper
“Measurement error was assessed using a reliability ranking.”
- Also stated in: § Methods · plain
“Measurement error, which is extremely difficult to quantify without field verification, was assessed using a reliability ranking, similar to fuzzy set theory (50), based on assumptions about the study areas and classification method used.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [50]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
- Also stated in: § Methods · plain
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The survey includes all tropical forest types in wet, moist, and dry conditions and covers 63% of the total tropics and 87% of tropical forests (34,35).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
- Not checked yetcites [35]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The data describe new agricultural expansion occurring within each decade and do not address expansion before 1980 or after 2000.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These statistics are of dubious accuracy for some regions but remain the only consistent source of information available across the tropics.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most studies have focused on net expansion in agricultural area, and those that identify land sources often are limited to local and regional scales.”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The aggregated agriculture categories also may mask shifts between agricultural land types, such as between pasture and cropland and different crop types.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“This method involves manual interpretation of both images (historical and recent) at the same time, reducing errors associated with change detection (34) and offering major advantages over single-period analysis or compilations of different sources of imagery (17,33,35,36).”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
- Not checked yetcites [17]
- Not checked yetcites [33] source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This remotely sensed database is distinct from the FAO country statistics and offers dramatic improvements over other information sources.”
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“A formal accuracy assessment of the results was not feasible, given the historical nature of the study and the pan-tropical scale, which make field verification extremely difficult (17,(34)(35)(36).”
- Also stated in: § Methods · plain
“A formal accuracy assessment of the imagery was not feasible, given the historical nature and pan-tropical scale of the study (17,(34)(35)(36).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [17]
- Not checked yetcites [34]
- Not checked yetcites [35]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Also stated in: § Methods · plain
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These natural ecosystems provide locally and globally important services including storing of much of Earth's biomass carbon, serving as habitats for endangered plants and animals, preserving major elements of the global hydrological cycle, and protecting massive watersheds (34,44,47,48).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
- Not checked yetcites [44]
- Not checked yetcites [47] source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Others have postulated land sources from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) nationallevel agriculture and forestry statistics for broad regions (22,30), but these data are highly aggregated, have been described as unreliable (33), and do not provide the spatially detailed information needed for an accurate identification of land sources for new agricultural landscapes.”
What the sources say
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Without such provisions, lucrative and increasingly large-scale agriculture will continue to clear forests in the path of expansion.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
In the paper
“We organized the tropical belt into seven broad regions, each with broadly similar socioeconomic and ecological conditions expected to lead to common pathways of land-use change (20).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Methods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The FAO approach assures a high level of consistency and reduces errors associated with change detection (34).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Methods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This database consists of 117 randomly selected sample locations stratified by dry, moist, and humid tropical forest and covers 10% of the tropical forest belt (Fig. 1).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Methods
plainn = 117- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Assumptions of normality were assessed by examining histograms of data distribution within regions and changes between decades; no obvious deviations from normality were found.”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Methods
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The survey included all tropical forest types and covered 63% of the entire tropics and 87% of tropical forests (34).”
§ Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s > Methods
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Scientific descriptions of expanding agricultural lands and whether they arise from new deforestation or from previously cleared lands are largely absent and undocumented for the tropics as a whole.
“Scientific descriptions of these expanding agricultural landsand whether they arise from new deforestation or from previously cleared lands-are surprisingly absent and remain largely undocumented for the tropics as a whole.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Progress in environmental governance and policy decisions is hindered by sparse information on land sources for newly expanded croplands.
“Progress in environmental governance and policy decisions (e.g., domestic and international standards for renewable fuel) is hindered by sparse information on land sources for newly expanded croplands.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Worldwide demand for agricultural products is expected to increase by about 50% by 2050.
“Worldwide demand for agricultural products is expected to increase by ∼50% by 2050, and evidence suggests that tropical countries will be called on to meet much of this demand.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Tropical countries will be called on to meet much of the increased demand for agricultural products.
“Worldwide demand for agricultural products is expected to increase by ∼50% by 2050, and evidence suggests that tropical countries will be called on to meet much of this demand.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Large-scale industrial agricultural production and commodity trade are increasingly linked to deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics (Gibbs et al., 2010;Henders et al., 2015;Curtis et al., 2018).”
From Making deforestation risk visible. Discourses on bovine leather supply chain in Brazil (2020) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Changes to forest cover are particularly pronounced in tropical areas, where over 80% of new agricultural land was cleared from tropical rainforests between 1980 and 2000 and an estimated 2100 km2 of forests were lost per year between 2000 and 2012 [15, 16].”
From Achieving global malaria eradication in changing landscapes (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“Though inevitable, agricultural expansion into natural ecosystems leads to significant losses of ecosystem services, such as habitat necessary to maintain biodiversity, storage of carbon, flood mitigation, and soil and watershed protection, to cite a few (Foley et al., 2005;Gibbs et al., 2010;Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011).”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
In the citing paper
“For example, Gibbs et al. (2010) found that during the 1980s and 1990s more than half of newly expanding agricultural areas in the tropics came at the expense of closed forests, with an additional third from disturbed forests.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al. (2010)
In the citing paper
“No woody plantation land was abandoned.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
In the citing paper
“The vast majority of the agricultural abandonment occurred in Latin America, where over 56 million ha of land became 'idle' during the 1990s.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
In the citing paper
“The FAO Landsat analysis indicated that across the tropics, 77 million ha of cropland and pasture had been abandoned either temporarily or permanently during the 1990s (FAO, 2001;Gibbs et al., 2010).”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
In the citing paper
“Tropical Asia accounts for 12 million ha and Africa for the remaining 9 million ha of abandoned land.”
From Mapping the world's degraded lands (2015) · cites this paper as Gibbs et al., 2010
Citations
Cites
Global Consequences of Land Use
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1111772 · Cited by 13,272
Self-citationUse of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D., & Yu, T.-H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1151861 · Cited by 4,888 · cited 2×
“Drivers of cropland expansion may impact forests directly through local or regional demand or indirectly through more globalized demand that may occur via market-mediated effects (30).”
Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change
Tilman, D., Fargione, J., Wolff, B., D'Antonio, C., Dobson, A., Howarth, R., Schindler, D., Schlesinger, W. H., Simberloff, D., & Swackhamer, D. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1057544 · Cited by 3,992
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
Fargione, J., Hill, J., Tilman, D., Polasky, S., & Hawthorne, P. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1152747 · Cited by 3,902
Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature
Green, R. E., Cornell, S. J., Scharlemann, J. P. W., & Balmford, A. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1106049 · Cited by 2,238
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020
(2020) · FAO eBooks · doi:10.4060/ca8753en · Cited by 2,039
Determination of Deforestation Rates of the World's Humid Tropical Forests
Achard, F., Eva, H. D., Stibig, H.-J., Mayaux, P., Gallego, J., Richards, T., & Malingreau, J.-P. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1070656 · Cited by 1,993 · cited 4×
“Furthermore, our own analysis of a related Landsat database developed by the Tropical Resources and Environment monitoring by Satellites project (TREES) (36) identified intact and disturbed forests as the sources for ∼90% of new plantations between 1990 and 1997.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationMonfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb002947 · Cited by 1,895
Self-citationMonitoring and estimating tropical forest carbon stocks: making REDD a reality
Gibbs, H. K., Brown, S., Niles, J. O., & Foley, J. A. (2007) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045023 · Cited by 1,653
Self-citation(2002) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 1,279
Research works printed but not linked: 7
- MW Rosegrant, S Msango, T Sulser, R Valmonte-Santos Biofuels and the Global Food Balance (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 2006).
- , ed SR Carpenter (Island Press, Washington, DC Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios: Findings of the Scenarios Working Group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005).
- ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, FAO Forestry Paper 140. (2000).
- ; Malaysian Oil Palm Council Palm Oil and the Environment (Malaysian Oil Palm Council, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 2008).
- ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Forest Resources Assessment 1990—Survey of Tropical Forest Cover and Study of Change Processes (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, FAO Forestry Paper 130. (1996).
- ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FRA 2000: Pan-Tropical Survey of Forest Cover Changes, 1980–2000 (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Forest Resources Assessment Working Paper 49. (2001).
- MF Goodchild Spatial Autocorrelation. Catmog 47 (Geo Books, Norwich, CT, 1986).
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Metadata
- Authors
- Gibbs, H. K., Ruesch, A. S., Achard, F., Clayton, M. K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- European Commission (BE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (IT)
- McGill University (CA)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2010-08-31
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 38
- Pages
- 16732-16737
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2944736
- OpenAlex
- W2129920251
- Cited by
- 1,876
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 82 · 2025: 91 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 137 · 2022: 163 · 2021: 145 · 2020: 166 · 2019: 186 · 2018: 114 · 2017: 149 · 2016: 122 · 2015: 110 · 2014: 94 · 2013: 87 · 2012: 73
- FWCI
- 65.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Social Sciences › Development › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Keywords
- agricultural expansion, tropical forests, land conversion, cropland expansion, pasture expansion, forest loss, forest degradation, land cover change, Landsat imagery, biofuels, forest carbon emissions, forest conservation, 1980s-1990s
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Conservation of Natural Resources, Trees, Tropical Climate, United Nations, Databases, Factual, Crops, Agricultural, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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