The DOI matches its Crossref record; 31 of the 31 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
Open accessAbstract
Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.
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A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking
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The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis
Lazer, D., Kennedy, R., King, G., & Vespignani, A. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1248506 · Cited by 2,523
Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States
(2020) · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd6370 · Cited by 366
The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
Petchey, O. L., Pontarp, M., Massie, T. M., Kéfi, S., Ozgul, A., Weilenmann, M., Palamara, G. M., Altermatt, F., Matthews, B., Levine, J. M., et al. (2015) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12443 · Cited by 348
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New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases
Christaki, E. (2015) · Virulence · doi:10.1080/21505594.2015.1040975 · Cited by 226
Metadata
- Authors
- Shaman, J., & Karspeck, A.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-11-26
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 50
- Pages
- 20425-20430
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2143469080
- Cited by
- 420
- References
- 31
- FWCI
- 15.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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