The DOI matches its Crossref record; 108 of the 108 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants
Open accessAbstract
Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.
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Cites
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A practical guide to selecting models for exploration, inference, and prediction in ecology
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Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land‐use changes
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Progress and opportunities in advancing near-term forecasting of freshwater quality
Lofton, M. E., Howard, D. W., Thomas, R. Q., & Carey, C. C. (2022) · doi:10.1002/essoar.10512426.1 · Cited by 38
Metadata
- Authors
- Petchey, O. L., Pontarp, M., Massie, T. M., Kéfi, S., Ozgul, A., Weilenmann, M., Palamara, G. M., Altermatt, F., Matthews, B., Levine, J. M., Childs, D. Z., McGill, B. J., Schaepman, M. E., Schmid, B., Spaak, P., Beckerman, A. P., Pennekamp, F., & Pearse, I. S.
- Venue
- Ecology Letters
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2015-05-07
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 597-611
- ISSN
- 1461-023X (ISSN-L)
- 1461-0248
- OpenAlex
- W2953106474
- Cited by
- 348
- References
- 108
- FWCI
- 33.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Petchey, O. L., Pontarp, M., Massie, T. M., Kéfi, S., Ozgul, A., Weilenmann, M., Palamara, G. M., Altermatt, F., Matthews, B., Levine, J. M., Childs, D. Z., McGill, B. J., Schaepman, M. E., Schmid, B., Spaak, P., Beckerman, A. P., Pennekamp, F., & Pearse, I. S. (2015). The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants. Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12443
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