Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility
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Significance: Fertility falls when unemployment rises, but there may be no long-run effect if women simply postpone childbearing. We analyze the effects of unemployment by following fixed cohorts of US-born women defined by their own state and year of birth. We find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by six conceptions per 1,000 women. When these women are followed to age 40, a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at 20 to 24 is associated with an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This larger long-term effect is driven largely by women who remain childless.
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Postponing childbearing by even a few years can lower the lifetime fertility of women's cohorts.
“Delays in childbearing – even for a couple of years – can reduce lifetime fertility rates for cohorts of women (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan 2003; Ryder 1980).”
From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Currie and Schwandt 2014
The Results (page unavailable) report that cohorts exposed to high unemployment in their early 20s had fewer children in both the short and long term, rather than simply postponing births. This supports the possibility that a short-run fertility reduction can persist, but the paper does not establish that delaying childbearing by just a couple of years itself reduces lifetime fertility. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWhen economic prosperity falls during downturns and financial uncertainty rises, women and couples delay childbearing.
“As economic prosperity diminishes during cyclical downturns and financial uncertainty and distress increases, women and couples postpone childbearing (Balbo et al. 2013; Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018; Currie and Schwandt 2014).”
From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Currie and Schwandt 2014
The Abstract (page unavailable) reports that fertility falls as unemployment rises, and the Results say reduced household income might help explain lower fertility during recessions. But the paper does not establish that financial uncertainty causes postponement; its Results find that women facing high unemployment in their early 20s do not just postpone births, but have fewer children in the long term. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIncreased unemployment during recessions was linked to short- and long-term fertility reductions for women in their early 20s.
“Currie and Schwandt’s (2014) comprehensive analysis of state-level fertility trends between 1975–2010 suggests that increased unemployment during economic recessions was associated with short-term and long-term reductions in fertility for women in their early 20s.”
From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Currie and Schwandt’s (2014)
The finding of small or non-significant unemployment coefficients contrasts with earlier Great Recession studies that found considerable pro-cyclicality; the discrepancy may be explained by the extended time period and geographic level examined.
“Although this finding contrasts with earlier studies on the Great Recession which find considerable evidence of pro-cyclicality (e.g. Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan et al. 2011; Schneider 2015), this discrepancy might be explained by the extended time period of the present study and the geographic level examined.”
From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Currie and Schwandt 2014
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Cites
Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World
Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V., & Philipov, D. (2011) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x · Cited by 863 · cited 5× · see citing works
“Demographers have been examining the effect of econ omic conditions on fertility for more than a century (1-10).”
InfluentialAdvances in development reverse fertility declines
Myrskylä, M., Kohler, H.-P., & Billari, F. C. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08230 · Cited by 782 · see citing works
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The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis
Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., & Vignoli, D. (2021) · European Journal of Population · doi:10.1007/s10680-020-09556-y · Cited by 242 · see citing works
Seltzer, N. (2019) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-019-00790-6 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Sobotka, T. (2017) · Journal of Biosocial Science · doi:10.1017/s0021932017000323 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
- Authors
- Currie, J., & Schwandt, H.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-09-29
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 41
- Pages
- 14734-14739
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4205620
- OpenAlex
- W2003253551
- Cited by
- 204
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 5
- FWCI
- 26.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2CHD047879)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Keywords
- unemployment, fertility, childlessness, live birth, birth records, cohort analysis, short-run and long-run effects, women's reproductive choices, economic downturn
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Female, Fertility, Fertilization, Humans, Statistics as Topic, Time Factors, Unemployment
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