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A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition
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Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.
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“The key cognitive mechanisms are episodic and semantic simulations of future events [128].”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [128]
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“…autobiographical future events) and prediction (i.e., estimating the likelihood of imagined events) has been formalized by cognitive psychologists [20] but is rarely captured when assessing individuals experiencing STBs. Measuring these components may yield a clearer profile of future thinking…”
Self-citationMarks, J., Schneider, S., & Voigt, B. (2023) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1211986 · Cited by 11
“Consequently, we also explored relations distinguishing between internalizing and externalizing problems (Cicchetti and Toth, 1992; American Psychiatric Association and American Psychiatric Association, 2013) and different facets of future-oriented cognition (Szpunar et al., 2014).”
BackgroundGałecki, P., & Talarowska, M. E. (2017) · Neuropsychiatria i Neuropsychologia · doi:10.5114/nan.2017.68899 · Cited by 6
Temperament and Brain Networks of Attention
Rothbart, M. K., Posner, M. I., & Sheese, B. E. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108264822.016 · Cited by 8
Cosentino, E., McCarroll, C., & Michaelian, K. (2022) · Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11097-022-09836-4 · Cited by 5
Minds on Fire: Cognitive Aspects of Early Firemaking and the Possible Inventors of Firemaking Kits
Lombard, M., & Gärdenfors, P. (2023) · Cambridge Archaeological Journal · doi:10.1017/s0959774322000439 · Cited by 6
“We define such prospective cognition (a.k.a. episodic foresight or mental time travel: Suddendorf & Moore 2011) as the capacity to envision future desires and organize current action accordingly (Gärdenfors & Osvath 2010; Spreng & Grady 2010; Szpunar et al. 2014).”
BackgroundBiesanz, J. C., & Wallace, J. D. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108264822.006 · Cited by 7
Specificity of Future Thinking in Depression: A Meta-AnalysisPreprint
Gamble, B., Moreau, D., Tippett, L. J., & Addis, D. R. (2018) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/y84pu · Cited by 6
Scene Construction and Relational Processing: Separable Constructs?Preprint
Roberts, R. P., Schacter, D. L., & Addis, D. R. (2017) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/3zeqn · Cited by 6
Self-citationJanowicz, K., Piotrowski, K., & Bakiera, L. T. (2024) · Emerging Adulthood · doi:10.1177/21676968241292386 · Cited by 5
“What is more, while most of these studies and theoretical ideas were focused on goals and plans, we expanded on their work by investigating another type of future thinking — simulations (Szpunar et al., 2014) referring to the anticipated future adult life (the VOAL).”
InfluentialAnticipated emotional volatility in tour bookings
Li, S., Wang, L., & Liu, S. (2025) · Annals of Tourism Research · doi:10.1016/j.annals.2025.103997 · Cited by 5
Deficits in multi-scale top-down processes distorting auditory perception in schizophrenia
Yang, F., Zhu, H., Yu, L., Lu, W., Zhang, C., & Tian, X. (2021) · Behavioural Brain Research · doi:10.1016/j.bbr.2021.113411 · Cited by 5
Mahdavi, A., Mansureh, H.-H., Lavasani, M. G., Elaheh, H., Nili, M.-H. H. K., Yamin, B. D., & Vahabie, A. (2023) · Journal of Attention Disorders · doi:10.1177/10870547231155436 · Cited by 8
“Mental simulation is one of the most frequent forms of mental imagery (Pham & Taylor, 1999b; Szpunar et al., 2014; Taylor et al., 1998).”
BackgroundCordonnier, A., Barnier, A. J., & Sutton, J. D. (2015) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1080/17470218.2015.1085587 · Cited by 5
“However, we wanted to look at one particular component of the process that relates more to episodic future thinking: simulation of the planning (Szpunar et al., 2014).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Szpunar, K. K., Spreng, R. N., & Schacter, D. L.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-11-21
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 52
- Pages
- 18414-18421
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4284580
- OpenAlex
- W1999520675
- Cited by
- 539
- References
- 103
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 48 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 22
- FWCI
- 3.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5r01ag008441-30)
- National Institute on Aging (R01-AG008441, AG 08441, R37AG008441)
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH 60941, R01MH060941)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Cognitive Functions and Memory
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychological and Temporal Perspectives Research
- Keywords
- prospection, future-oriented cognition, episodic simulation, prediction, intention, planning, affective forecasting, prospective memory, delay discounting, procedural systems
- MeSH terms
- Cognition, Humans, Thinking, Memory, Episodic
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