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A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition
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Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.
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“The key cognitive mechanisms are episodic and semantic simulations of future events [128].”
From Impact of Media-Induced Uncertainty on Mental Health: Narrative-Based Perspective. (2025) · cites this paper as [128]
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“guide people’s decisions rely on common cognitive processes are subject to common biases but differ in phenomenology Like a mental roadmap or GPS, predicted and remembered emotion guide people’s decisions [20,24,34,50] Both types of representations rely on: ● episodic memory [1-3,6] ● semantic knowledge and appraisals…”
BackgroundOptimism for the Future in Younger and Older Adults
Durbin, K. A., Barber, S. J., Brown, M., & Mather, M. (2017) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbx171 · Cited by 46
The Functions of Prospection – Variations in Health and Disease
Bulley, A., & Irish, M. (2018) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02328 · Cited by 50
Thakral, P. P., Benoit, R. G., & Schacter, D. L. (2017) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2017.02.005 · Cited by 39
“For example, by manipulating the content of simulated episodes, Szpunar et al. (2014) demonstrated that activation in specific core-network regions are associated with processing different types of simulated content (e.g., simulating social scenarios was associated with neural activity in the…”
BackgroundSelf-citationHumans use forward thinking to exploit social controllability
Na, S., Chung, D., Hula, A., Perl, O., Jung, J., Heflin, M., Blackmore, S., Fiore, V. G., Dayan, P., & Gu, X. (2021) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.64983 · Cited by 41
Evolving institutions for collective action by selective imitation and self-interested design
Gavrilets, S., & Shrestha, M. D. (2019) · Evolution and Human Behavior · doi:10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2020.05.007 · Cited by 40
A Bi-Factor Approach to Modeling the Structure of Worry and Rumination
Hur, J., Heller, W., Kern, J. L., & Berenbaum, H. (2016) · Journal of Experimental Psychopathology · doi:10.5127/jep.057116 · Cited by 42
Scene Construction and Relational Processing: Separable Constructs?
Roberts, R. P., Schacter, D. L., & Addis, D. R. (2017) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhx081 · Cited by 45
“Key words: episodic, hippocampus, imagination, scene construction, simulation Imagining hypothetical events often entails the construction of a detailed mental representation referred to as an episodic simulation (Szpunar et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThakral, P. P., Madore, K. P., & Schacter, D. L. (2019) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2019.107263 · Cited by 40
“Tulving’s ideas provided a foundation for the subsequent development of the concept of episodic simulation, or the ability to mentally represent future and other hypothetical episodes (Schacter et al., 2008; Szpunar et al., 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMazachowsky, T. R., & Mahy, C. E. V. (2020) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/dev0000885 · Cited by 51
Characteristics of episodic future thinking in anxiety: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Du, J. Y., Hallford, D. J., & Grant, J. B. (2022) · Clinical Psychology Review · doi:10.1016/j.cpr.2022.102162 · Cited by 43
A Synergistic Workspace for Human Consciousness Revealed by Integrated Information DecompositionPreprint
Luppi, A. I., Mediano, P. A. M., Rosas, F. E., Allanson, J. E., Pickard, J. D., Carhart-Harris, R. L., Williams, G. B., Craig, M. M., Finoia, P., Owen, A. M., et al. (2020) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2020.11.25.398081 · Cited by 43
Corte, V. L., & Piolino, P. (2016) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2016.00385 · Cited by 39
“Otherwise Szpunar et al. (2014) have proposed a new taxonomy of prospection including various forms of future thinking which vary according a semantic-episodic continuum.”
BackgroundMnemonic construction and representation of temporal structure in the hippocampal formation
Bellmund, J. L. S., Deuker, L., Montijn, N. D., & Doeller, C. F. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30984-3 · Cited by 52
The measurement of episodic foresight: A systematic review of assessment instruments
Miloyan, B. H., & McFarlane, K. A. (2018) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2018.08.018 · Cited by 46
Rapid eye movement sleep mediates age-related decline in prospective memory consolidation
Scullin, M. K., Gao, C., Fillmore, P., Roberts, R. L., Pruett, N., & Bliwise, D. L. (2019) · SLEEP · doi:10.1093/sleep/zsz055 · Cited by 42
“Today, however, cognitive neuroscience conceptualizes memory as functioning to prepare us for the future [2].”
BackgroundDafni‐Merom, A., & Arzy, S. (2020) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2020.107477 · Cited by 39
Why We Imagine Our Future: Introducing the Functions of Future Thinking Scale (FoFTS)
Hallford, D. J., & D’Argembeau, A. (2021) · Journal of Psychopathology and Behavioral Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10862-021-09910-2 · Cited by 47
A Common Mode of Processing Governing Divergent Thinking and Future Imagination
Roberts, R. P., & Addis, D. R. (2018) · The Cambridge Handbook of the Neuroscience of Creativity · doi:10.1017/9781316556238.013 · Cited by 37
Hey buddy, why don’t we take it outside: An experience sampling study of prospective memory
Anderson, F. T., & McDaniel, M. A. (2018) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/s13421-018-0849-x · Cited by 36
Intergenerational retrospective viewpoint promotes financially sustainable attitude
Nakagawa, Y., Arai, R., Kotani, K., Nagano, M., & Saijo, T. (2019) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102454 · Cited by 36
Divergent thinking and constructing future events: dissociating old from new ideas
Thakral, P. P., Yang, A. C., Addis, D. R., & Schacter, D. L. (2021) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2021.1940205 · Cited by 36
“It is unknown whether other forms of future thinking, such as semantic simulations (Szpunar et al., 2014), are related to divergent thinking.”
BackgroundSelf-citationSpontaneous cognition in dysphoria: reduced positive bias in imagining the future
Ji, J. L., Holmes, E. A., MacLeod, C., & Murphy, F. C. (2018) · Psychological Research · doi:10.1007/s00426-018-1071-y · Cited by 42
Pattern similarity and connectivity of hippocampal-neocortical regions support empathy for pain
Wagner, I. C., Rütgen, M., & Lamm, C. (2020) · Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience · doi:10.1093/scan/nsaa045 · Cited by 35
“The hippocampus is regarded as key player for successfully remembering past (Scoville and Milner, 1957; Rugg and Vilberg, 2012; Kim, 2016) and simulating future (Addis et al., 2007; Szpunar et al., 2014; McCormick et al., 2018) or fictitious events (Hassabis et al.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Szpunar, K. K., Spreng, R. N., & Schacter, D. L.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-11-21
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 52
- Pages
- 18414-18421
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4284580
- OpenAlex
- W1999520675
- Cited by
- 539
- References
- 103
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 48 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 22
- FWCI
- 3.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5r01ag008441-30)
- National Institute on Aging (R01-AG008441, AG 08441, R37AG008441)
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH 60941, R01MH060941)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Cognitive Functions and Memory
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Psychological and Temporal Perspectives Research
- Keywords
- prospection, future-oriented cognition, episodic simulation, prediction, intention, planning, affective forecasting, prospective memory, delay discounting, procedural systems
- MeSH terms
- Cognition, Humans, Thinking, Memory, Episodic
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