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Cited by 1,045Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementLand Use and Ecosystem ServicesAgriculture, Land Use, Rural Development

Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm

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Nobre, Carlos A., Sampaio, Gilvan, Borma, Laura S., Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos, Silva, José S., Cardoso, Manoel·2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1605516113PMC PMC5047175
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Abstract

Significance: The Amazonian tropical forests have been disappearing at a fast rate in the last 50 y due to deforestation to open areas for agriculture, posing high risks of irreversible changes to biodiversity and ecosystems. Climate change poses additional risks to the stability of the forests. Studies suggest “tipping points” not to be transgressed: 4° C of global warming or 40% of total deforested area. The regional development debate has focused on attempting to reconcile maximizing conservation with intensification of traditional agriculture. Large reductions of deforestation in the last decade open up opportunities for an alternative model based on seeing the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets for the creation of high-value products and ecosystem services.

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  • A potential vegetation model found a critical threshold at 20% of accumulated deforestation.

    “A potential vegetation model81 found a critical threshold at 20% of accumulated deforestation (Fig. 3a) by simulating Amazon forest responses to different scenarios of accumulated deforestation (with associated fire events) and of greenhouse gas emissions, and by considering a CO2 fertilization effect of 25% of the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [81]

    The Significance section and ‘Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives’ (pages unavailable) identify 40% deforestation—not 20%—as a suggested tipping point for Amazon forests. The paper’s mention of around 20% concerns a modeled increase in local precipitation at low levels of deforestation, not a critical vegetation threshold; the cited 25% CO2-fertilization assumption is also not stated in the passages found. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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  • Beyond 20% deforestation, forest mortality accelerated, causing large reductions in regional rainfall and consequently an ecosystem transition of 50−60% of the Amazon, depending on the emissions scenario.

    “Beyond 20% deforestation, forest mortality accelerated, causing large reductions in regional rainfall and consequently an ecosystem transition of 50−60% of the Amazon, depending on the emissions scenario.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [81]

    In “Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives” (page unavailable), the paper places a proposed forest-loss tipping point at 40% deforestation and says regional precipitation is expected to decrease beyond around 30%, not 20%. In “Impacts of Anthropogenic Drivers of Change in the Amazon” (page unavailable), it projects over 60% forest-area reduction by 2050 under combined climate, deforestation, and fire effects; it does not describe accelerated mortality beyond 20% deforestation causing a 50–60% transition. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Authors
Nobre, C. A., Sampaio, G., Borma, L. S., Castilla-Rubio, J. C., Silva, J. S., & Cardoso, M.
Affiliations
  • Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (BR)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
  • Planetary Skin Institute, São Paulo 05462-010, Brazil;
  • Universidade de Brasília (BR)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2016-09-16
Volume
113
Issue
39
Pages
10759-10768
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1605516113
PMC
PMC5047175
OpenAlex
W2520452758
Cited by
1,045
References
3
Citations by year
2026: 107 · 2025: 123 · 2024: 136 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 139 · 2021: 144 · 2020: 117 · 2019: 72 · 2018: 48 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 1 · 2013: 1
FWCI
30.36
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.pnas.org/site/misc/userlicense.xhtml (vor)
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • São Paulo Research Foundation (2008/57719-9)
  • Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (573797/2008-0)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
Keywords
Amazon deforestation, savannization, tropical forest degradation, land use change, sustainable development paradigm, agricultural intensification, biodiversity loss, Fourth Industrial Revolution, high-tech innovation, hydropower
MeSH terms
Agriculture, Brazil, Conservation of Natural Resources, Geography, Humans, Human Activities, Risk Factors, Seasons, Plant Transpiration, Internationality, Climate Change, Gross Domestic Product, Forests

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