Cutting Down Trees Does not Build Prosperity: On the Continued Decoupling of Amazon Deforestation and Economic Development in 21st Century Brazil
Open accessAbstract
Background and Aims: We present evidence examining spatial and temporal patterns in forest cover changes and economic indicators in Brazilian Amazonia. Specifically, we tested two predictions embedded in arguments used by influential interest groups: (i) indicators of economic progress should increase where there is less forest and (ii) areas with most recent deforestation should have increased economic indicators. Methods: Complementary methods assessed annual variation in economic indicators across 794 administrative districts (municipalities) covering 4.9 Mkm 2 of the Brazilian Amazon from 2002 to 2019. A representative subset of municipalities was used to compare economic and socioeconomic indicators across municipalities with contrasting forest cover. Results: Contrasting results between the full and a representative subset of municipalities suggested that municipality-level economic indicators cannot be directly attributed to the loss of natural forests. There was no association between forest loss and economic (average salary) or socioeconomic indicators (existence of sanitation plans and internet connectivity). The economic indicators of municipalities with less than 40% forest cover in 1986 were no different to that of similar municipalities with more than 60% forest cover from 1986 to 2019. Conclusion: The evidence contradicted both predictions tested. Reducing forest cover does not appear to directly promote socioeconomic progress. Any localized associations between forest cover and poverty most likely result from other more plausible alternatives including lack of opportunity and a widespread failure to effectively implement and enforce existing policies within the local socioeconomic context. Implications for Conservation: Our findings support evidence from across the tropics that shows deforestation does not necessarily generate transformative and equitable food production systems or lead to poverty alleviation.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259855 · Cited by 12,527 · see citing works
A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems: <i>Data exploration</i>
Zuur, A. F., Ieno, E. N., & Elphick, C. S. (2010) · Methods in Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1111/j.2041-210x.2009.00001.x · Cited by 8,228 · see citing works
Wood, S. N. (2006) · doi:10.1201/9781420010404 · Cited by 4,953 · see citing works
Sustainable Rural Livelihoods: A Framework for Analysis
Scoones, I. (1998) · OpenDocs (Institute of Development Studies) · Cited by 3,118 · see citing works
An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm
Dinerstein, E., Olson, D., Joshi, A., Vynne, C., Burgess, N. D., Wikramanayake, E., Hahn, N., Palminteri, S., Hedao, P., Noss, R., et al. (2017) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/bix014 · Cited by 2,460 · see citing works
Júnior, C. M. D. S., Shimbo, J. Z., Rosa, M. R., Parente, L., Alencar, A. A. C., Rudorff, B. F. T., Hasenack, H., Matsumoto, M. H., Ferreira, L. G., Filho, P. W. M. E. S., et al. (2020) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs12172735 · Cited by 1,732 · see citing works
Self-citationHierarchical generalized additive models in ecology: an introduction with mgcv
Pedersen, E. J., Miller, D. L., Simpson, G. L., & Ross, N. (2019) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.6876 · Cited by 1,225 · see citing works
Nobre, C. A., Sampaio, G., Borma, L. S., Castilla-Rubio, J. C., Silva, J. S., & Cardoso, M. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1605516113 · Cited by 1,045 · see citing works
Sacco, A. D., Hardwick, K. A., Blakesley, D., Brancalion, P. H. S., Breman, E., Rebola, L. C., Chomba, S., Dixon, K. W., Elliott, S., Ruyonga, G., et al. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15498 · Cited by 763 · see citing works
Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s
Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M., & Boers, N. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8 · Cited by 681 · see citing works
Lovejoy, T. E., & Nobre, C. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat2340 · Cited by 660 · see citing works
Daw, T. M., Brown, K., Rosendo, S., & Pomeroy, R. S. (2011) · Environmental Conservation · doi:10.1017/s0376892911000506 · Cited by 614 · see citing works
What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis
Busch, J., & Ferretti-Gallon, K. (2017) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1093/reep/rew013 · Cited by 535 · see citing works
Ten facts about land systems for sustainability
Meyfroidt, P., de Bremond, A., Ryan, C. M., Archer, E. R. M., Aspinall, R., Chhabra, A., Câmara, G., Corbera, E., DeFries, R., Díaz, S. M., et al. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2109217118 · Cited by 489 · see citing works
The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation
Lambin, É. F., Gibbs, H., Heilmayr, R., Carlson, K. M., Fleck, L. C., Garrett, R. D., de Waroux, Y. L. P., McDermott, C. L., McLaughlin, D., Newton, P., et al. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0061-1 · Cited by 482 · see citing works
The rotten apples of brazil’s agribusiness
Rajão, R., Soares-Filho, B., Nunes, F., Börner, J., Machado, L., Assis, D., Oliveira, A., Pinto, L., Ribeiro, V., Rausch, L., et al. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aba6646 · Cited by 448 · see citing works
Ferrante, L., & Fearnside, P. M. (2019) · Environmental Conservation · doi:10.1017/s0376892919000213 · Cited by 362 · see citing works
mgcv: Mixed GAM Computation Vehicle with Automatic Smoothness Estimation
Wood, S. (2000) · doi:10.32614/cran.package.mgcv · Cited by 346 · see citing works
Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon
Leite‐Filho, A. T., Soares-Filho, B. S., Davis, J. L., Abrahão, G. M., & Börner, J. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22840-7 · Cited by 337 · see citing works
Boom-and-Bust Development Patterns Across the Amazon Deforestation Frontier
Rodrigues, A. S. L., Ewers, R. M., Parry, L., Souza, C., Veríssimo, A., & Balmford, A. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1174002 · Cited by 330 · see citing works
The systematic dismantling of Brazilian environmental laws risks losses on all fronts
Abessa, D., Famá, A., & Buruaem, L. (2019) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0855-9 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
Satellite‐based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon
Bullock, E. L., Woodcock, C. E., Souza, C., & Olofsson, P. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15029 · Cited by 240 · see citing works
Solving Brazil’s land use puzzle: Increasing production and slowing Amazon deforestation
Stabile, M. C. C., Guimarães, A. L., Silva, D. S., Ribeiro, V., Macedo, M. N., Coe, M. T., Pinto, E., Moutinho, P., & Alencar, A. (2020) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104362 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
Self-citationStatistical matching for conservation science
Schleicher, J., Eklund, J., Barnes, M. D., Geldmann, J., Oldekop, J. A., & Jones, J. P. G. (2019) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/cobi.13448 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016
Lim, S. S., Updike, R. L., Kaldjian, A. S., Barber, R. M., Cowling, K., York, H. W., Friedman, J. R., Xu, R., Whisnant, J. L., Taylor, H. J., et al. (2018) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31941-x · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Analyzing the Time Course of Pupillometric Data
van Rij, J., Hendriks, P., van Rijn, H., Baayen, R. H., & Wood, S. N. (2019) · Trends in Hearing · doi:10.1177/2331216519832483 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
The origin, supply chain, and deforestation risk of Brazil’s beef exports
zu Ermgassen, E. K. H. J., Godar, J., Lathuillière, M. J., Löfgren, P., Gardner, T., Vasconcelos, A., & Meyfroidt, P. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2003270117 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Institutional Development and Colonial Heritage within Brazil
Naritomi, J., Soares, R. R., & Assunção, J. J. (2012) · The Journal of Economic History · doi:10.1017/s0022050712000071 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Sauer, S. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.08.030 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Russo Lopes, G., Bastos Lima, M. G., & Reis, T. N. P. D. (2021) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105316 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
de Waroux, Y. L. P., Garrett, R. D., Graesser, J., Nolte, C., White, C., & Lambin, É. F. (2017) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.05.034 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Poverty reduction saves forests sustainably: Lessons for deforestation policies
Miyamoto, M. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104746 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Forests and sustainable development in the brazilian amazon: history, trends, and future prospects
Garrett, R. D., Cammelli, F., Ferreira, J., Levy, S. A., Valentim, J., & Vieira, I. (2021) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-010228 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Gil, J., Garrett, R. D., & Berger, T. (2016) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.09.022 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Faria, W. R., & de Almeida, A. N. (2015) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.014 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Achieving zero deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: What is missing?
Moutinho, P. R. S., Guerra, R., & Azevedo-Ramos, C. (2016) · Elementa Science of the Anthropocene · doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000125 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
da Silva, J. M. C., Prasad, S., & Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F. (2017) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.04.003 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
No man’s land in the Brazilian Amazon: Could undesignated public forests slow Amazon deforestation?
Azevedo-Ramos, C., & Moutinho, P. R. S. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.01.005 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Governance effects on deforestation in the tropics: A review of the evidence
Fischer, R., Gießen, L., & Günter, S. (2020) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2019.12.007 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Sustainability implications of transformation pathways for the bioeconomy
Stark, S., Biber‐Freudenberger, L., Dietz, T., Escobar, N., Förster, J. J., Henderson, J. M., Laibach, N., & Börner, J. (2021) · Sustainable Production and Consumption · doi:10.1016/j.spc.2021.10.011 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Amazon forest on the edge of collapse in the Maranhão State, Brazil
Silva, C. H. L., Celentano, D., Rousseau, G. X., de Moura, E. G., Varga, I. V. D., Martínez, C., & Martins, M. B. (2020) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104806 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Busting the boom-bust pattern of development in the Brazilian Amazon
Caviglia-Harris, J., Sills, E., Bell, A., Harris, D., Mullan, K., & Roberts, D. (2016) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.040 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Drivers of tropical forest cover increase: A systematic review
Borda‐Niño, M., Meli, P., & Brancalion, P. H. S. (2019) · Land Degradation and Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.3534 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Mullan, K., Sills, E. O., Pattanayak, S. K., & Caviglia‐Harris, J. L. (2017) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-017-0164-1 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Tanure, T., Miyajima, D. N., Magalhães, A. S., Domingues, É. P., & Carvalho, T. S. (2020) · EconomiA · doi:10.1016/j.econ.2020.04.001 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Nobre, I., & Nobre, C. A. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.80413 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Pinho, P. F., Patenaude, G., Ometto, J. P., Meir, P., de Toledo, P. M., Coelho, A., & Young, C. E. F. (2014) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.03.002 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Abramovay, R., Ferreira, J., de Assis Costa, F., Ehrlich, M., Castro Euler, A. M., Young, C. E. F., Kaimowitz, D., Moutinho, P., Nobre, I., Rogez, H., et al. (2021) · Amazon Assessment Report 2021 · doi:10.55161/ughk1968 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Kauano, É. E., da Silva, J. M. C., Diniz‐Filho, J. A. F., & Michalski, F. (2020) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104473 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Land Use - Assessing the Past, Envisioning the Future
Loures, L. C. (2019) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.75839 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Property rights and deforestation: Evidence from the Terra Legal land reform in the Brazilian Amazon
Lipscomb, M., & Prabakaran, N. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104854 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Jerneck, A. (2015) · SAGE Open · doi:10.1177/2158244015614875 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Large-Scale Collective Action to Avoid an Amazon Tipping Point – Key Actors and Interventions
Lima, M. G. B., Harring, N., Jagers, S. C., Löfgren, Å., Persson, U. M., Sjöstedt, M., Brülde, B., Langlet, D., Steffen, W., & Alpízar, F. (2020) · Current Research in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.crsust.2021.100048 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Supporting pathways to prosperity in forest landscapes – A PRIME framework
Shyamsundar, P., Ahlroth, S., Kristjanson, P., & Onder, S. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104622 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Pereira, R., Rausch, L. L., Carrara, A., & Gibbs, H. (2020) · Tropical Conservation Science · doi:10.1177/1940082920942014 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Rural Populations, Land Degradation, and Living Standards in Developing Countries
Barbier, E. B., & Falco, S. D. (2021) · Review of Environmental Economics and Policy · doi:10.1086/713152 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Brazil’s Next Deforestation Frontiers
Schneider, M., de Marques, A. A. B., & Peres, C. A. (2021) · Tropical Conservation Science · doi:10.1177/19400829211020472 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Alves-Pinto, H., Newton, P., & Pinto, L. F. G. (2015) · Tropical Conservation Science · doi:10.1177/194008291500800414 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Forest governance in the Amazon: Favoring the emergence of local management systems
Medina, G., Pokorny, B., & Campbell, B. (2021) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105696 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Amazon Deforestation in Brazil: What Has Not Happened and How the Global Media Covered It
Boucher, D., & Chi, D. (2018) · Tropical Conservation Science · doi:10.1177/1940082918794325 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Chapter 15: Complex, diverse, and changing agribusiness and livelihood systems in the Amazon
Costa, F. D. A., Schmink, M. C., Hecht, S. B., Assad, E. D., Bebbington, D. H., Brondízio, E. S., Fearnside, P. M., Garrett, R. D., Heilpern, S., McGrath, D., et al. (2021) · UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) eBooks · doi:10.55161/cgap7652 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 18
- Amorim D., 2021, Queda de 8% no PIB da agropecuária no 3º trimestre é a maior desde 2012. Estadão
- Brazil, 2021, Brazil - High-level Segment Statement COP 26
- Butler R. A., 2021, Amazon deforestation unexpectedly surges 22% to highest level since 2006
- Carvalho R., 2022, DIE ERDE – Journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin, 153
- CBD, 2021, The Convention on Biological Diversity: Post 2020
- Crelier C., 2021, PIB fica em -0,1% no terceiro trimestre influenciado por queda na agropecuária
- Dunn P. K., 2017, Tweedie: Evaluation of Tweedie exponential family models (Version R package version 2.3)
- EIU, 2021, Democracy Index 2021
- Guimarães de Araújo S. M. V., 2020, Brazilian Political Science Review, 14
- IBGE, 2019, Estatísticas do Cadastro Central de Empresas
- IBGE, 2019, MUNIC - Pesquisa de Informações Básicas Municipais
- IBGE, 2021, Produto Interno Bruto dos Municípios 2019
- MapBiomas, 2021, Projeto MapBiomas – Coleção 6 da Série Anual de Mapas de Cobertura e Uso de Solo do Brasil
- MDR, 2021, Ministério do Desenvolvimento Regional: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Saneamento 2020: Região Norte
- Ministério da Cidadania, 2022, Auxílio Brasil
- Norris D., 2022, CuttingDownTrees: data and R code
- Paraguassu L., 2022, Se guerra aumentar prejudicará produção de alimentos, diz Bolsonaro [Press release]
- Tweedie M. (1984). An index which distinguishes between some important exponential families . Paper presented at the Statistics: Applications and new directions. Proc. Indian Statistical Institute Golden Jubilee International Conference.
Cited by
Still being checked.
- Authors
- Norris, D., Sabadini Carvalho, T., Guerrero, A. M., Sobral Escada, M. I., Alencar, A., Kimbrough, L., & Butler, R. A.
- Affiliations
- Universidade Federal do Amapá (BR)
- Federal University of Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil
- Queensland University of Technology (AU)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil
- Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (BR)
- Mongabay, New Orleans, LA, USA
- Corresponding author
- Norris, Darren
- Venue
- Tropical Conservation Science
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2022-07
- Volume
- 15
- ISSN
- 1940-0829 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4313015734
- Cited by
- 6
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1
- FWCI
- 0.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Tropical Conservation Science (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Keywords
- Amazon deforestation, forest cover change, economic development, socioeconomic indicators, poverty reduction, forest conservation, Brazil
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
