Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies
Open accessAbstract
Significance: What predicts how happy people are with their romantic relationships? Relationship science—an interdisciplinary field spanning psychology, sociology, economics, family studies, and communication—has identified hundreds of variables that purportedly shape romantic relationship quality. The current project used machine learning to directly quantify and compare the predictive power of many such variables among 11,196 romantic couples. People’s own judgments about the relationship itself—such as how satisfied and committed they perceived their partners to be, and how appreciative they felt toward their partners—explained approximately 45% of their current satisfaction. The partner’s judgments did not add information, nor did either person’s personalities or traits. Furthermore, none of these variables could predict whose relationship quality would increase versus decrease over time.
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Meta-analyses and a machine learning study have consistently shown that associations between a person's experience and their own outcomes are stronger than the ones between a person's experience and their partner's outcomes.
“Indeed, meta-analyses and a machine learning study have consistently shown that associations between a person’s experience and their own outcomes are stronger than the ones between a person’s experience and their partner’s outcomes (Candel & Turliuc, 2019; Joel et al., 2020).”
From Partner Effects of Childhood Maltreatment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2024) · cites this paper as Joel et al., 2020
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Partner Effects of Childhood Maltreatment: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Vaillancourt-Morel, M.-P., Bussières, È.-L., Nolin, M.-C., & Daspe, M.-È. (2024) · Trauma, Violence, & Abuse · doi:10.1177/15248380231173427 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
“Indeed, meta-analyses and a machine learning study have consistently shown that associations between a person’s experience and their own outcomes are stronger than the ones between a person’s experience and their partner’s outcomes (Candel & Turliuc, 2019; Joel et al., 2020).”
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- Authors
- Joel, S., Eastwick, P. W., Allison, C. J., Arriaga, X. B., Baker, Z. G., Bar-Kalifa, E., Bergeron, S., Birnbaum, G. E., Brock, R. L., Brumbaugh, C. C., Carmichael, C. L., Chen, S., Clarke, J., Cobb, R. J., Coolsen, M. K., Davis, J., de Jong, D. C., Debrot, A., DeHaas, E. C., Derrick, J. L., Eller, J., Estrada, M.-J., Faure, R., Finkel, E. J., Fraley, R. C., Gable, S. L., Gadassi-Polack, R., Girme, Y. U., Gordon, A. M., Gosnell, C. L., Hammond, M. D., Hannon, P. A., Harasymchuk, C., Hofmann, W., Horn, A. B., Impett, E. A., Jamieson, J. P., Keltner, D., Kim, J. J., Kirchner, J. L., Kluwer, E. S., Kumashiro, M., Larson, G., Lazarus, G., Logan, J. M., Luchies, L. B., MacDonald, G., Machia, L. V., Maniaci, M. R., Maxwell, J. A., Mizrahi, M., Muise, A., Niehuis, S., Ogolsky, B. G., Oldham, C. R., Overall, N. C., Perrez, M., Peters, B. J., Pietromonaco, P. R., Powers, S. I., Prok, T., Pshedetzky-Shochat, R., Rafaeli, E., Ramsdell, E. L., Reblin, M., Reicherts, M., Reifman, A., Reis, H. T., Rhoades, G. K., Rholes, W. S., Righetti, F., Rodriguez, L. M., Rogge, R., Rosen, N. O., Saxbe, D., Sened, H., Simpson, J. A., Slotter, E. B., Stanley, S. M., Stocker, S., Surra, C., Ter Kuile, H., Vaughn, A. A., Vicary, A. M., Visserman, M. L., & Wolf, S.
- Affiliations
- Western University (CA)
- University of California, Davis (US)
- Simon Fraser University (CA)
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- University of Houston (US)
- Department of Psychology, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be’er Sheva 8410501, Israel;
- Université de Montréal (CA)
- Reichman University (IL)
- University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US)
- Queens College, CUNY (US)
- City University of New York (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- University of Colorado Colorado Springs (US)
- Texas Tech University (US)
- Shippensburg University (US)
- Virginia Commonwealth University (US)
- Department of Psychology, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723;
- University of Lausanne (CH)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Department of Psychology, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627;
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Northwestern University (US)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Department of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520;
- University of Michigan (US)
- Pace University (US)
- Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
- University of Washington (US)
- Carleton University (CA)
- Ruhr University Bochum (DE)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- University of Rochester (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Goldsmiths University of London (GB)
- University of Cologne (DE)
- Bar-Ilan University (IL)
- Calvin University (US)
- Syracuse University (US)
- Florida Atlantic University (US)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Ariel University (IL)
- York University (CA)
- University of Fribourg (CH)
- Ohio University (US)
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Department of Psychology, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan 5290002, Israel;
- Moffitt Cancer Center (US)
- Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland;
- University of Denver (US)
- Texas A&M University (US)
- University of South Florida St. Petersburg (US)
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- University of Southern California (US)
- Villanova University (US)
- University of Wisconsin System (US)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- Department of Psychology, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;
- San Diego State University (US)
- Illinois Wesleyan University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Joel, Samantha
- ORCID
- Joel, Samantha
- Eastwick, Paul W.
- Arriaga, Ximena B.
- Baker, Zachary G.
- Bergeron, Sophie
- Birnbaum, Gurit E.
- Brock, Rebecca L.
- Brumbaugh, Claudia C.
- Carmichael, Cheryl L.
- Chen, Serena
- Cobb, Rebecca J.
- Debrot, Anik
- Derrick, Jaye L.
- Eller, Jami
- Faure, Ruddy
- Finkel, Eli J.
- Fraley, R. Chris
- Gable, Shelly L.
- Girme, Yuthika U.
- Gordon, Amie M.
- Gosnell, Courtney L.
- Hammond, Matthew D.
- Hannon, Peggy A.
- Harasymchuk, Cheryl
- Hofmann, Wilhelm
- Horn, Andrea B.
- Impett, Emily A.
- Jamieson, Jeremy P.
- Keltner, Dacher
- Kim, James J.
- Kluwer, Esther S.
- Kumashiro, Madoka
- Larson, Grace
- Lazarus, Gal
- MacDonald, Geoff
- Machia, Laura V.
- Maniaci, Michael R.
- Maxwell, Jessica A.
- Mizrahi, Moran
- Muise, Amy
- Niehuis, Sylvia
- Ogolsky, Brian G.
- Oldham, C. Rebecca
- Overall, Nickola C.
- Perrez, Meinrad
- Peters, Brett J.
- Pietromonaco, Paula R.
- Powers, Sally I.
- Rafaeli, Eshkol
- Ramsdell, Erin L.
- Reblin, Maija
- Reifman, Alan
- Reis, Harry T.
- Rhoades, Galena K.
- Rholes, William S.
- Righetti, Francesca
- Rodriguez, Lindsey M.
- Rogge, Ron
- Rosen, Natalie O.
- Saxbe, Darby
- Sened, Haran
- Simpson, Jeffry A.
- Slotter, Erica B.
- Stanley, Scott M.
- Vaughn, Allison A.
- Visserman, Mariko L.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-07-27
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 32
- Pages
- 19061-19071
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7431040
- OpenAlex
- W3044216884
- Cited by
- 315
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 63 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 8
- FWCI
- 43.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Kölner Universitäts PublikationsServer (Universität zu Köln) (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Goldsmiths (University of London) (submittedVersion)
- IRIS (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Sussex Research Online (University of Sussex) (submittedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- DalSpace (Dalhousie University) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- ResearchSpace (University of Auckland) (submittedVersion)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- Gouvernement du Canada | Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (435-2019-0115)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Attachment and Relationship Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Marriage and Sexual Relationships
- Keywords
- relationship quality, romantic relationships, sexual satisfaction, relationship satisfaction, relationship conflict, individual differences, life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, attachment anxiety
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Self Report
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