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Cited by 278Zoonotic diseases and public healthViral Infections and Outbreaks ResearchSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research

Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses

Open access
Grange, Zoë L., Goldstein, Tracey, Johnson, Christine K., Anthony, Simon, Gilardi, Kirsten, Daszak, Peter, Olival, Kevin J., O’Rourke, Tammie +158 more·2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2002324118PMC PMC8053939
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Abstract

Significance: The recent emergence and spread of zoonotic viruses, including Ebola virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, demonstrate that animal-sourced viruses are a very real threat to global public health. Virus discovery efforts have detected hundreds of new animal viruses with unknown zoonotic risk. We developed an open-source risk assessment to systematically evaluate novel wildlife-origin viruses in terms of their zoonotic spillover and spread potential. Our tool will help scientists and governments assess and communicate risk, informing national disease prioritization, prevention, and control actions. The resulting watchlist of potential pathogens will identify targets for new virus countermeasure initiatives, which can reduce the economic and health impacts of emerging diseases.

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Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.2002324118

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  • The high likelihood that newly identified pandemic-class agents will be publicly described, including novel versions devised by future LLMs, underscores the importance of verifying that screening is conducted against an up-to-date database.

    “The high likelihood that newly identified pandemic-class agents will be publicly described 4,5,26,27 , including novel versions devised by future LLMs, underscore the importance of verifying that screening is conducted against an up-to-date database.”

    From Human innovation and the creative agency of the world in the age of generative AI (2024) · cites this paper as [26]

    The 'A Global Resource for Zoonotic Threats' section says the authors hope future animal-virus detections will be reported and commit to reviewing public resources for new discoveries. This supports the prospect of public descriptions, but not the claimed high likelihood specifically for newly identified pandemic-class agents. The LLM and screening-database points are the citing authors’ extensions, not findings attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.83)

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 18

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Authors
Grange, Z. L., Goldstein, T., Johnson, C. K., Anthony, S., Gilardi, K., Daszak, P., Olival, K. J., O’Rourke, T., Murray, S., Olson, S. H., Togami, E., Vidal, G., Panel, E., PREDICT Consortium, Mazet, J. A. K., Anderson, K., Auewarakul, P., Coffey, L., Corley, R., Dauphin, G., Epstein, J., Fukuda, K., Goodman, S., Han, B., Hughes, J., Jeggo, M., Karesh, W., Kazwala, R., Kelly, T., Keusch, G., Kurilla, M., Mackenzie, J., Markotter, W., Monagin, C., Morens, D., Munster, V., Muhlberger, E., Pandit, P., Peel, A., Pfeiffer, D., Restif, O., Tomori, O., Towner, J., Van Der Werf, S., VonDobschetz, S., Wacharapluesadee, S., Ward, M., Weirsma, L., Wilson, M., Wolking, D., Wongsathapornchai, K., Brierley, L., University of Edinburgh Epigroup members, Tambrana-Torellio, C., anonymous, T. W. W. T. R., Islam, A., Islam, S., Raman, Z., Hul, V., Duong, V., Mouiche, M., Nwobegahay, J., Coulibaly, K., Kumakamba, C., Syaluha, E. K., Lukusa, J.-P., Belay, D., Kebede, N., Ampofo, W., Bel-Nono, S., Suu-Ire, R., Douokoro, K., Dursman, H., Pamungkas, I., Rachmitasari, N., Saputro, S., Damanik, W., Kusumaningrum, T., Rambitan, M., Rey, B., Safari, D., Soebandrio, A., Triastuti, J., Abu-Basha, E., Allan, K., Joseph, K., Samson, M., Khamphaphonphane, B., Theppanga, W., Desmond, J., Samules, S., Lee, M. H., Lee, J., Damdinjav, B., Shiilegdamba, E., Aung, O., Bista, M., Karmacharya, D., Shrestha, R., Nziza, J., Tumushime, J.-C., Lo, M. M., Ndiaye, A., Seck, M. C., Bangura, J., Lavalie, E., Mwangoka, G., Sijali, Z., Okello, R. O., Ssebide, B., Wacharpluesadee, S., Nguyen, N., Epstein, J., Hagan, E., Karesh, W., Latinne, A., Laudisoit, A., Li, H., Machalaba, C., Martinez, S., Ross, N., Sullivan, A., Torrelio, C. Z., Mackenzie, J., Waldman, R., Morzaria, S., Kalpravidh, W., Makonnen, Y., Von Dubscheutz, S., Claes, F., Pelican, K., Behravesh, C. B., Mumford, E., Clark, J. P., Vu, T. D., Saylors, K., Edison, B., Euren, J., Gillis, A., Lange, C., LeBreton, M., McIver, D., O’Rourke, D., Valitutto, M., Zimmerman, D., Belkhiria, J., Bird, B., Chale, H., Preston, E., Gardner, N., Genovese, B., Gonzalez, K., Keatts, L., Kelly, T., Leasure, E., Monagin, C., Pandit, P., Randhawa, N., Smith, B., Smith, W., Tremeau-Bravard, A., Wolking, D., Churchill, C., Olson, S., Walzer, C., & Fine, A.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Davis (US)
  • EcoHealth Alliance (US)
  • 3v Geomatics (Canada) (CA)
  • Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (US)
  • Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460
Corresponding author
  • Grange, Zoë L.
  • Mazet, Jonna A. K.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2021-04-05
Volume
118
Issue
15
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2002324118
PMC
PMC8053939
OpenAlex
W3145674800
Cited by
278
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 34 · 2025: 53 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 54 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 30
FWCI
41.39
Type
journal article
Language
en
Update notices
correction (2021-09-20)
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Charles Sturt University Research Output (CRO) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Funders
United States Agency for International Development (GHN-A-00-09-00010-00, AID-OAA-A-14-00102)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Keywords
zoonotic spillover, emerging viruses, wildlife viruses, risk prioritization, risk assessment framework, SARS-CoV-2, environmental risk factors, virus discovery, outbreak prevention, public health interventions
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Animals, Humans, Zoonoses, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Pandemics

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