Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals
Open accessAbstract
The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host-virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range-which may reflect human-wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of 'missing viruses' and 'missing zoonoses' and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.
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Cross-species transmission results from a complex interplay between pathogen characteristics, the original host's infection, behavior, and ecology, pathogen shedding and survival in the environment, human exposure, and human susceptibility.
“Cross-species transmission results from a complex interplay between the characteristics of the pathogen (2, 10–12): the original host’s infection, behavior, and ecology; how the pathogen is shed into and survives in the environment; how humans are exposed to the pathogen; and how susceptible those humans are to infection (4, 12–16).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
The Abstract and Extended Data conceptual model describe zoonotic spillover in terms of viral traits, host ecology and behavior, opportunities for human contact, and clinical signs that can increase shedding (pages not provided). Our copy does not address pathogen survival in the environment or variation in human susceptibility to infection, so it supports only part of the attributed list. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRecent analyses identify rodents as the most likely source or one of the most likely sources of zoonotic pathogens.
“In recent analyses, rodents have also emerged as the most likely source (21, 23) or one of the most likely (11, 27).”
From Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases (2021) · cites this paper as [11]
The paper reports that rodents, alongside bats and primates, had a higher proportion of observed zoonotic viruses than other mammalian groups (Abstract; page unavailable). That supports placing rodents among prominent viral hosts, but the analysis concerns viruses rather than zoonotic pathogens generally and does not establish that rodents are among the most likely sources of future spillover. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredBats harbor a higher proportion of zoonoses than all other mammalian orders, including rabies-like viruses that are highly pathogenic for people.
“Even fruit bats are kept as pets [176] and it is known that bats harbor a higher proportion of zoonoses than all other mammalian orders, including rabies-like viruses that are highly pathogenic for people. [177].”
From A One Health Perspective on the Human-Companion Animal Relationship with Emphasis on Zoonotic Aspects. (2020) · cites this paper as [177]
The Abstract (page unavailable) states that bats harbor a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. It mentions Rhabdoviruses in bats, but does not establish that bats harbor rabies-like viruses highly pathogenic to people. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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- Authors
- Olival, K. J., Hosseini, P. R., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Ross, N., Bogich, T. L., & Daszak, P.
- Affiliations
- EcoHealth Alliance (US)
- Corresponding author
- Olival, Kevin J.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2017-06-21
- Volume
- 546
- Issue
- 7660
- Pages
- 646-650
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC5570460
- OpenAlex
- W2700382303
- Semantic Scholar
- 5833bef1f77157d1e3e6e1553ee9fdd2ff049ee0
- Cited by
- 1,130
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 83 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 109 · 2023: 137 · 2022: 130 · 2021: 192 · 2020: 152 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 81 · 2017: 33
- FWCI
- 93.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2017-08-23)
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- United States Agency for International Development
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI110964, R01AI079231)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Virology and Viral Diseases
- Keywords
- zoonotic spillover, host-virus interaction, mammalian viruses, interspecies transmission, emerging infectious diseases, bats, phylogenetic relatedness, host breadth, human-wildlife contact, pandemic surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Mammals, Viruses, Zoonoses, Biodiversity, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Host Specificity
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