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Cited by 385Malaria Research and ControlMosquito-borne diseases and controlSpecies Distribution and Climate Change

A new malaria vector in Africa: Predicting the expansion range of Anopheles stephensi and identifying the urban populations at risk

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Sinka, M. E., Pironon, S., Massey, N. C., Longbottom, J., Hemingway, J., Moyes, C. L., Willis, K. J.·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2003976117PMC PMC7547157
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Abstract

Significance: In 2012, an unusual outbreak of malaria occurred in Djibouti City followed by increasingly severe annual outbreaks. Investigations revealed the presence of an Asian mosquito species; Anopheles stephensi , which thrives in urban environments. An. stephensi has since been identified in Ethiopia and Sudan. By combining data for An. stephensi across its full range (Asia, Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa) with spatial models that identify the species’ preferred habitat, we provide evidence-based maps predicting the possible African locations where An. stephensi could establish if allowed to spread. Our results suggest over 126 million people in cities across Africa could be at risk. This supports the WHO’s call for targeted An. stephensi control and prioritized surveillance.

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  • Sinka and colleagues identified the study area in southern Nigeria among places in West Africa where ecological conditions are favourable for the invasion and establishment of An. stephensi.

    “Sinka and colleagues [72] identified the study area in southern Nigeria among places in West Africa where ecological conditions are favourable for the invasion and establishment of An. stephensi.”

    From Sibling species of the major malaria vector Anopheles gambiae display divergent preferences for aquatic breeding sites in southern Nigeria (2024) · cites this paper as [72]

    The Discussion (page unavailable) says Nigeria appears particularly suitable for An. stephensi because of its high population density, and the paper models potential habitat across Africa. It does not specifically identify the citing paper’s study area in southern Nigeria; its suitability predictions are not a finding that invasion or establishment has occurred there. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • A recent study demonstrated that India, Pakistan, south of Iran, west of Yemen, Southwest Saudi Arabia, East of Iraq, and several countries from the African continent including Djibouti and Ethiopia are suitable in terms of habitat for Anopheles stephensi.

    “A study recently provided a snapshot of environmental suitability for An. stephensi and it demonstrated that India, Pakistan, south of Iran, west of Yemen, Southwest Saudi Arabia, East of Iraq and several countries from the African continent, including Djibouti, Ethiopia are suitable in terms of habitat9.”

    From Predicting the environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi under the current conditions in Ghana (2024) · cites this paper as [9]

    The Results (Fig. 2; page unavailable) report high predicted suitability in Djibouti and parts of Ethiopia, while noting that the model did not predict high suitability at several other Ethiopian sites. The paper also maps environmental suitability across the species’ range and identifies potentially suitable habitats in many African cities (Discussion; page unavailable). Our copy does not identify the claimed specific areas of Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq as suitable. (LLM, conf=0.84)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Anopheles stephensi is spreading to new areas and contributing to outbreaks of urban malaria.

    “It seems like An. stephensi is spreading to new areas and contributing to outbreaks of urban malaria9.”

    From Predicting the environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi under the current conditions in Ghana (2024) · cites this paper as [9]

  • If Anopheles stephensi were to spread unchecked, 126 million more people in Africa would be in danger of suffering malaria.

    “According to a modelling study, if An. stephensi were to spread unchecked, 126 million more people in Africa would be in danger of suffering malaria9.”

    From Predicting the environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi under the current conditions in Ghana (2024) · cites this paper as [9]

  • In recent research, there were many suitable habitats in residential areas.

    “In recent research, based on the study that was conducted, there were many suitable habitats in residential areas9,43.”

    From Predicting the environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi under the current conditions in Ghana (2024) · cites this paper as [9]

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 38

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Authors
Sinka, M. E., Pironon, S., Massey, N. C., Longbottom, J., Hemingway, J., Moyes, C. L., & Willis, K. J.
Affiliations
  • Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew (GB)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (GB)
Corresponding author
  • Sinka, M. E.
  • Hemingway, J.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2020-09-14
Volume
117
Issue
40
Pages
24900-24908
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2003976117
PMC
PMC7547157
OpenAlex
W3087096204
Cited by
385
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 46 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 2
FWCI
38.62
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • LSTM Online Archive (Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • Wellcome (108440/Z/15/Z)
  • Google (DFR01520)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Keywords
Anopheles stephensi, malaria vectors, urban malaria, range expansion, species distribution modeling, habitat suitability, vector control, Africa
MeSH terms
Mosquito Vectors, Africa, Animals, Anopheles, Humans, Malaria, Male, Plasmodium, Urban Population, Ecosystem, Animal Distribution

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