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A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Our paper challenges the long-held view that the fall of Central Asia’s river civilizations was determined by warfare and the destruction of irrigation infrastructure during the Mongol invasion. An integration of radiometric dating of long-term river dynamics in the region with irrigation canal abandonment shows that periods of cultural decline correlate with drier conditions during multicentennial length periods when the North Atlantic Oscillation had mostly positive index values. There is no evidence that large-scale destruction of irrigation systems occurred during the Arab or Mongol invasion specifically. A more nuanced interpretation identifies chronic environmental challenges to floodwater farming over the last two millennia, punctuated by multicentennial-length periods with favorable hydromorphic and hydroclimatological conditions that enabled irrigation agriculturists to flourish.
Overview
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TL;DR
Radiometric dating of irrigation canals and river terraces in the Otrar oasis shows that phases of fluvial aggradation and wet conditions coincided with settlement flourishing, while canal abandonment and cultural decline tracked drought-driven river entrenchment rather than Arab or Mongol destruction. The authors argue Central Asia’s river civilizations were shaped by multicentennial hydroclimatic variability, especially NAO-linked rainfall and river dynamics.
Key findings
- Major phases of fluvial aggradation occurred between the seventh and early ninth century CE and between 1350 and 1550 CE, coinciding with economic flourishing facilitated by wet climatic conditions and higher river flows that favored floodwater farming.
- Otrar oasis decline began between the eighth and ninth centuries CE, with a 68% fall in the number of settlements and a 32% reduction in occupied area; a second contraction occurred in the 12th century CE, followed by progressive decline until the late-16th century CE.
- OSL dating shows several main feeder canals ceased functioning between the 12th and late-14th centuries CE; radiocarbon TPQ dates fall in the late eighth century, between the mid-11th and mid-12th century, and the mid-16th century CE.
- Major channel incision (~5 m) in the Arys valley between the 9th and early-14th century CE coincided with warm/dry conditions, positive NAO, and low Aral Sea levels; the paper reports no evidence of wholesale irrigation-network destruction during the Arab (650–760 CE) or Mongol (1219 CE) invasions.
Methods
- Interdisciplinary geoarchaeological investigation of the Otrar oasis at the Syr Darya–Arys confluence in southern Kazakhstan, including geomorphological study of the Badam River, the middle Arys, and the oasis itself.
- Twenty OSL samples were collected from Late Pleistocene and Holocene river terraces; seven trenches were excavated in the oasis, with five OSL and nine charcoal AMS radiocarbon samples taken from canal-fill sediments above the coarse-grained canal base.
- OSL samples were prepared and measured at the Oxford Dating Laboratory using purified quartz and a single-aliquot regenerative-dose protocol; most samples used a minimum age model, one used a finite mixture model. AMS radiocarbon dates were calibrated with IntCal13 in OxCal4.3, and results were compared with hydroclimatic and archaeological records including Aral Sea levels/salinity, pollen-based precipitation, NAO, tree-ring temperature, and settlement area.
Limitations
- Paper-stated: the hydroclimatic and hydromorphic contexts of these changes were largely unknown, with only a handful of sites having been radiometrically dated; radiocarbon ages from postabandonment canal deposits are systematically >200 y older than OSL dates from the same depths, so charcoal provides a terminus post quem while OSL more likely dates final canal operation; sample AMS5 was rejected.
- Evident from the text: the study focuses on one oasis and catchment (Otrar/Arys/Badam) with limited sample numbers (20 OSL samples, seven trenches, five OSL and nine AMS samples), so extension to “similar irrigation agriculturists elsewhere in Central Asia” remains an inference rather than a directly tested generalization.
- Evident from the text: the chronological correlations with regional climate records are not direct causal tests, and some OSL ages carry large uncertainties (e.g., ±1410, ±1630, ±1140 y).
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18 Own interpretation · 12 Sources not found · 8 Own result · 1 Own method
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Radiocarbon ages from postabandonment canal deposits are systematically >200 y older than those based on the OSL dates from the same depths (trenches 1 and 2; Table 1).”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > †
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Radiocarbon TPQ dates fall in three periods; the late eighth century, between the mid-11th and mid-12th century, and the mid-16th century CE.”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > †
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Major phases of fluvial aggradation, between the seventh and early ninth century CE and between 1350 and 1550 CE coincide with economic flourishing of the oasis, facilitated by wet climatic conditions and higher river flows that favored floodwater farming.”
- Also stated in: § Fluvial Responses to Hydroclimatic Variability · plain
“Arys river bed aggradation between the seventh and early-ninth centuries CE correlates with relatively cold and wet conditions (Fig. 4).”
- Also stated in: § Fluvial Responses to Hydroclimatic Variability · plain
“The ∼14-16th century CE shift to fluvial aggradation in the lower Arys catchment coincides with an exceptionally large flood recorded in both the Badam and Arys rivers around ∼1350 CE, at which time high precipitation and a relatively low salinity is recorded in the Aral Sea basin (36) (Fig. 4).”
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Fluvial Responses to Hydroclimatic Variability · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“OSL dating shows that several main feeder canals ceased functioning between the 12th and late-14th centuries CE.”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > †
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Rests on an assumption not shown here.
A result the paper states — it cites no source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Large-scale incision occurred after the 9th century but before the 14th century CE with the formation of Tb5.”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > Late Pleistocene-Holocene Fluvial Development.
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
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Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > Late Pleistocene-Holocene Fluvial Development.
“Exceptionally large flood events, evidenced by sand units capping Tb1, Tb3, and Tb4, occurred at 9940 ± 1140 BCE, 1355 ± 80 CE, and 1818 ± 30 CE.”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > Data Availability.
“| A8 | Ta2 | 0.7 | 1345 ± 80 CE | B4 | Tb1 | 2.3 | 9925 ± 1140 BCE |”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > †
“Radiocarbon ages from postabandonment canal deposits are systematically >200 y older than those based on the OSL dates from the same depths (trenches 1 and 2; Table 1).”
§ A hydromorphic reevaluation of the forgotten river civilizations of Central Asia > Data Availability.
“| OSL3 | 2 | 2.1 | 1276 ± 50 CE | AMS3 | 3 | 2.1 | 1150 ± 104 CE |”
Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Toonen, W. H. J., Macklin, M. G., Dawkes, G., Durcan, J. A., Leman, M., Nikolayev, Y., & Yegorov, A.
- Affiliations
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- La Trobe University (AU)
- University College London (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Joint Stock Company Institute of Geography and Water Safety, 050010 Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan
- Corresponding author
- Toonen, Willem H. J.
- Macklin, Mark G.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-12-14
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 52
- Pages
- 32982-32988
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7776828
- OpenAlex
- W3110906958
- Cited by
- 36
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4
- FWCI
- 9.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Lincoln Repository (University of Lincoln) (acceptedVersion)
- Oxford University Research Archive (ORA) (University of Oxford) (submittedVersion)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Lirias (KU Leuven) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- British Council (172727191)
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (825.14.005)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Archaeology and Natural History
- Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Water management and technologies
- Keywords
- Aral Sea basin, Syr Darya, Amu Darya, irrigation canals, fluvial aggradation, hydroclimatic change, Mongol invasion, Silk Road, radiometric dating, geoarchaeology, Central Asia
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