Below Replacement Fertility in China? A Close Look at Recent Evidence
Abstract
This paper presents detailed evidence on fertility levels and trends in China from a survey conducted in 1992 by the State Family Planning Commission. The evidence is analyzed internally and by comparison with evidence from the Census of Population of 1990 and from two previous surveys. The results of the 1992 survey, which indicated fertility levels far below replacement during the early 1990s, have been greeted with considerable scepticism. Close attention has therefore been paid to evidence and argument bearing on the completeness of reporting of births in the survey. While the survey data probably understate fertility levels after 1990, the results for 1990 and before appear to be generally reliable. Even allowing for substantial underreporting of births during 1991-92, it appears likely that Chinese fertility did, in fact, fall to replacement level during the early 1990s.
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They did so against the overwhelming empirical evidence from numerous surveys and censuses, and a body of rigorous research.
“They did so against the overwhelming empirical evidence from numerous surveys and censuses, and a body of rigorous research (Feeney & Yuan 1994, Zhang & Zhao 2006, Wang 2015, Guo et al. 2017).”
From The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy (2021) · cites this paper as Feeney & Yuan 1994
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The Social and Sociological Consequences of China's One-Child Policy
Cai, Y., & Feng, W. (2021) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-090220-032839 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
How far has fertility in China really declined?
Retherford, R. D., Choe, M. K., Chen, J., Xiru, L., & Hongyan, C. (2005) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Merli, M. G., & Raftery, A. E. (2000) · Demography · doi:10.2307/2648100 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
- Authors
- Feeney, G., & Jianhua, Y.
- Affiliations
- East–West Center (US)
- ORCID
- Feeney, Griffith
- Venue
- Population Studies
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 1994-11
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 381-394
- ISSN
- 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-4747
- OpenAlex
- W2041616641
- Cited by
- 57
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 1 · 2015: 5 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 3.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Population Studies (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Keywords
- below-replacement fertility, fertility trends, China, fertility decline
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