Cited by 716Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare StudiesInternational Relations and Foreign PolicyInformation and Cyber Security

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Cyber War Will Not Take Place

Rid, Thomas·2012·Journal of Strategic Studies

DOI 10.1080/01402390.2011.608939

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Abstract

For almost two decades, experts and defense establishments the world over have been predicting that cyber war is coming. But is it? This article argues in three steps that cyber war has never happened in the past, that cyber war does not take place in the present, and that it is unlikely that cyber war will occur in the future. It first outlines what would constitute cyber war: a potentially lethal, instrumental, and political act of force conducted through malicious code. The second part shows what cyber war is not, case-by-case. Not one single cyber offense on record constitutes an act of war on its own. The final part offers a more nuanced terminology to come to terms with cyber attacks. All politically motivated cyber attacks are merely sophisticated versions of three activities that are as old as warfare itself: sabotage, espionage, and subversion.

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“Scholars are moving beyond definitional debates about the nature of cyberwar (Libicki 2009; Lynn 2010; Rid 2013; Rovner 2019) toward empirical studies of how cyber capabilities (offensive and defensive) are developed and practiced (Lin-Greenberg 2023; Kostyuk and Gartzke 2024; Vićić and Gartzke…”
Study of the Problems of Information-Security Auditing of Geographically Distributed Internet-of-Things Devices
Erastov, V., Zubkov, E., & Zegzhda, D. (2025) · Automatic Control and Computer Sciences · doi:10.3103/s0146411625700713
“According to [1, 2], many devices have factory-set credentials and do not support protocols that ensure secure data transfer.”
La cultura estratégica en el desarrollo de capacidades en ciberdefensa en Argentina y Colombia
Seoane, M. V., & Dalponte, B. (2025) · Colombia Internacional · doi:10.7440/colombiaint124.2025.06
“…características de las deno-minadas ciberarmas, la redefinición que imponen en relación con el equilibrio ofensivo-defensivo, si pudiera o no desarrollarse una ciberguerra son solo algu-nos de los temas que han suscitado importantes investigaciones (Buchanan 2020; Rid 2012; Whyte y Mazanec 2023).”
Adapting classical deception theory to cyber counterintelligence: challenges and opportunities
Boztosun-Çalışkan, E. M. (2025) · Intelligence and national security · doi:10.1080/02684527.2025.2568886
“4 These developments have introduced new actors and complexities that challenge established counterintelligence paradigms.”
Cybersecurity Regulations in Aviation Digital Transformation: Cross-Border Perspectives from Indonesia and Russia
Wala, G. N., & Antonovich, L. V. (2025) · Siber International Journal of Education Technology (SIJET) · doi:10.38035/sijet.v2i4.305
“Russia's approach emphasizes integration of aviation cybersecurity with broader national security and defense systems (Rid, 2013).”
Virtual Territories
Branch, J. (2025) · doi:10.1093/9780190063658.001.0001 · Cited by 1
Framing the Digital Threat: Cybersecurity and Strategic Narratives in India-Pakistan Relations
Tahir, S., & Nishat, K. (2025) · International Journal for Conventional and Non-Conventional Warfare · doi:10.66320/5bbzr182
Dampak Kesehatan Internasional Akibat Cyber War Rusia-Ukraina
Kusumawardhana, V., Sahary, F. T., Lubis, A. F., & Prasetyo, B. (2025) · Jurnal Ilmu Multidisiplin · doi:10.38035/jim.v4i2.948
Bad decisions have consequences: how cyber security could fall victim to climate change
Johansmeyer, T. (2025) · British Actuarial Journal · doi:10.1017/s1357321725000091
“Rid, for example, explains, “ No cyber-attack has ever damaged a building ” (Rid, 2012), and Gartzke adds, “ There will not be a cyber Pearl Harbor, except possibly when and if a foreign power has decided it can stand toe-to-toe with conventional US military power ” (Gartzke, 2013).”
Ancaman Perang Siber China terhadap Indonesia: Analisis Strategi, Dampak, dan Respons Kebijakan
Ariel, K., Suhirwan, S., & Dohamid, A. G. (2025) · AURELIA: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia · doi:10.57235/aurelia.v4i2.5428

Authors: Rid, T.
Affiliations: King's College London (GB)
Corresponding author: Rid, Thomas
Venue: Journal of Strategic Studies
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Published: 2012-02
Volume: 35
Issue: 1
Pages: 5-32
ISSN: 0140-2390 (ISSN-L)
1743-937X
DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2011.608939
OpenAlex: W2008906551
Cited by: 716
References: 0
Citations by year: 2026: 40 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 86 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 47 · 2014: 45 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 9
FWCI: 196.44
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Journal of Strategic Studies (publishedVersion)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
Virtual Defense Library (Ministerio de Defensa) (submittedVersion)
Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Topics: Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Information and Cyber Security
Keywords: cyber warfare, cyberattacks, definition of war, malware, sabotage, espionage, subversion, political violence

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Cyber War Will Not Take Place

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