Cyber War Will Not Take Place

“Some have also noted the enormous effort needed to establish the accesses and exploits required for OCO against hard targets such as the SCADA systems in Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant [48].”

“As Thomas Rid warns in his recent book, Cyber War Will Not Take Place , it is important not to exaggerate the dimensions of cyber attack (Rid, 2013).”

“This, for example, concerns knowledge embedded in a hacker ’ s experience or a cyber command ’ s implicit operational processes (Rid 2013, pp. 83 – 84; Davies 2015).”

“It is, however, ruled out as such by Denning’s, and the same may be said for the 2007 cyber attacks on Estonia (Rid 2013, 6-7).”

“While most states and academics do not fi nd the term “ cyberwar ” analytically useful anymore (Rid, 2013), cyber con fl ict is widely accepted as part and parcel of modern statecraft.”

“Rid and McBurney define cyberweapons as ‘computer code that is used, or designed to be used, with the aim of threatening or causing physical, functional, or mental harm to structures, systems, or living beings’ (Rid and McBurney, 2012, p. 7; Rid, 2013, p. 37).”

“In both cases, these are usually indirect weapons effects (Rid, 2013: 40), although, contra Rid, this does not necessarily alter the original code ’ s intended status as a weapon.”

“Rid (2012) created a typology that separates attacks into sabotage, espionage and subversion.”

“Strangely, this is not much different from the vision offered by cyber experts, who often concentrate on rare or even non-existent ‘cyber war’ events (Arquilla and Ronfeldt, 1993; Clarke and Knake, 2010; Gartzke, 2013; Rid, 2012).”

“Cyber warfare often lacks the central components of war: large-scale physical destruction, massive violence and compelling an actor to the political will of another (Rid 2012).”

“The shielding component, therefore, ensured that any computer hosting the bug remained maximally vulnerable to the harm that Stuxnet was intended to execute (Rid 2013, 43 – 6).”

“Since cyber disruptions tend to be temporary and limited, they may only prove adequate to coerce targets in relatively minor contests (Gartzke 2013; Rid 2012; Valeriano, Jensen, and Maness 2018).”

“…warfare” (Hartwig 2020), “compound warfare” (Huber 2002), “cosmopolitan war” (Fabre 2012), “counter-insurgency” (Scheipers 2014), “cyber deterrence/ war/warfare/security” (Rid 2012; Gartzke 2013; Futter 2018; Harknett and Smeets 2020; Levinson 2020; Arquilla 2021; Borghard and Lonergan 2021),…”

“Second, because alternative strategic theories explicitly for cyber have not been established, traditional military thinking becomes the default formulator of strategy [4], [5].”

“…(Blunden & Cheung, 2014; Borghard & Lonergan, 2017; Smeets in Foulon et al., 2021; Freilich et al., 2023; Gartzke, 2013; Gomez, 2022, p. 1; Harknett & Smeets, 2022; Libicki, 2009, pp. xv – xvi; Li ff , 2012; Maschmeyer,2021 ; Moore, 2022, p. 6; Rid, 2012; Smeets,2022 ; Valeriano & Maness, 2015).”

“Others have dismissed the concept of a cyber war in its entirety (Rid 2012, libicki 2014).”

“In fact, the cyber security domain, in which threats are still imagined virtual, and thus are not yet regarded as real, is a terrain on which multiple discourses compete (Rid 2013).”

“To account for the possibility respondents primarily respond to whether damage is physical (Gartzke 2013; Libicki 2012; Rid 2012), we include both physical and non-physical effects.”

“This requirement often precludes the most devastating of cyber-incidents as such incidents have not occurred in real life and are considered unlikely to occur (Rid, 2013) given the current state of national and corporate cyber security measures.”

“The five core definitions we have iden‐ tified are Clarke & Knake [37], Arquilla and Ronfeldt [10], Rid [14], US Department of Defense [30], and Nye [17].”

“Similarly, Rid (2012) argues that cyberwar has not taken place and is unlikely to do so in the future, as cyberattacks are simply extensions of long-used instruments of war such as espionage and sabotage.”

“If the goal was to stop the programme, then it was a failure, as it did not succeed in stopping Iran or denting the regime’s determination to develop a nuclear weapons capability (Rid, 2013; Barzashka, 2013; Lindsay, 2013).”

“Following arguments advanced elsewhere, such conceptions of “cyberwar” can be criticized for being hyperbolic [6, 56].”

“However, despite many criticisms of the concept — including but not limited to Rid (2012); Betz and Stevens (2013); Wolff (2014); Taddeo (2016) — many contemporary policy framings continue to rely on this underlying metaphor.”

“No cyber-based system can be made absolutely secure – whether it relies on security methods, such as constant software patches, or so-called ‘securitythrough-obscurity’ (Rid 2013, 72–74).”

“The Stuxnet incident demonstrated that even closed networks can be breached by targeted cyber attacks [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18].”

“31 Attacks such as the network attack on the power transmission network in 2009 32 and STUXNET attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2010 33 have made security issues of MAS a hot spot.”

“Researchers, politicians, and journalists have long been fascinated by ‘cyberwar’ – the spectre of armed conflict between nations spilling over into attacks conducted over the Internet [59].”

“Rid (2011), Kello (2013), Li ff (2012), and Stone (2012) debate the possibility, limitations, and parameters of cyber-war.”

“In particular, in view of the recent chain of events (Falliere, Murchu, & Chien, 2011; Gorman, 2009; Rid, 2012), the issues of security and cyber threats to the networked systems have gained growing attention. This paper uses system theoretic approaches to deal with problems involved with the security of networks. Rec…”

“Cyber operations thus function as a disruptive technology, altering but not 122 journal of Peace Research 61(1) transforming the dynamics of strategic exchange (Brantly, 2016; Gartzke and Lindsay, 2015; Masch-meyer, 2021; Rid, 2012; Rovner, 2019).”

“19 While all these works offer useful arguments around the use and efficacy of cyberattacks, the authors’ focus in the present article is different.”

“According to Rid (2013) “cyber war will not take place” – for him, cyber war is a mythos, because war contains targeted violence against people, which has not existed in previous digital attacks.”

“The fi ndings of this study support scholars ’ concerns about the role of formal sanctions in preventing cybercrime, cyberterror, and acts of cyberwar, particularly serious computer intrusions and cyber attacks (Brenner 2010; Geers 2010; Guitton 2012; Rid 2013).”

“Thomas Rid, who is not agreeing on the term “cyber war”, stated his disbelieve clearly from his essay’s title “Cyber War Will Not Take Place.” The base of his stand point is Clausewitz’s theory of war. According to Rid, cyber war doesn’t meet the main element of war, that are violent, instrumental, and political (Rid,…”

“(Rid, 2013).”

“Likewise, a recent study as to whether cyber war is really coming concluded that unlike the nuclear theorists of the 1950’s, cyber way theorists of this era have never experienced devastating cyber war weapons, and that according to the various existing evidence, cyber war will not take place [20].”

“…equipment, tactics, techniques, and procedures used for offensive cyber operations (Growther, 2017); computer code that is used, or MONOGRAPH designed to be used, with the aim of threatening or causing physical, functional or mental harm to structures, systems, or living beings (Rid, 2013: 37).”

“From 2012 to 2013, Rid (2012) and his respondents argued about the possibility of a strategic cyberwar and debated many of the assumptions upon which a strategic con fl ict in cyberspace might be based.”

“And indeed, a range of definitions can nowadays be found, offered by different authors and/or organizations (Denmark invests in cyber offensive capabilities, 2015; France to invest 1 billion euros to update cyber defenses, 2014; Law of War Manual, 2015; Rid, 2012).”

“In light of these schemes, however, scholarship overall agrees that cyberwar never occurred (Rid, 2013), thus removing any comprehensive point of reference with the past (and the possibility of linear simulation).”

“4 Maria Snegovaya (2015) looks at Russian warfare as a revival of the concept reflexive control, which is true.”

“Non-kinetic computer operations fit the definitions of crime and political violence (such as espionage, sabotage, and subversion) better than that of war[34], but crime and political violence are likewise defended against by security professionals in imperfect security arenas.”

“‘Operation Orchard’ in northern Syria in 2007, is thought to have featured a cyber attack that blinded air defense systems, followed by an Israeli bombing raid of a nuclear reactor site [35].”

“Most signi fi cant among these works was an article by Thomas Rid, entitled “ Cyber War Will Not Take Place ” (Rid 2012).”

“11 So where does this leave us?”

“Unlike conventional warfare, which typically involves direct confrontation between military forces and physical weaponry, cyber warfare leverages technology to invade and disrupt a nation’s systems without the need for a traditional military presence (Rid, 2012; Welch & Feeney, 2014).”

“45 The other reason why China uses APTs is that they serve as a key catalyst to expand its cyber operations.”

“(Arquilla & Ronfeldt, 1993) have gradually been replaced by the notion that “Cyberwar Will Not Take Place” (Rid, 2012) and the understanding that “cyber attacks are less destructive than we thought they would be” (Buchanan, 2022).”

“Cyber warfare has drawn the attention of the research community (Musman et al., 2011; Rid, 2012), and in particular, its potential impact on kinetic warfare (Hartmann & Steup, 2013; Yildiz, 2014).”