Probability Forecasting in Meteorology

Abstract

Efforts to quantify the uncertainty in weather forecasts began more than 75 years ago, and many studies and experiments involving objective and subjective probability forecasting have been conducted in meteorology in the intervening period. Moreover, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) initiated a nationwide program in 1965 in which precipitation probability forecasts were formulated on an operational basis and routinely disseminated to the general public. In addition, the NWS now prepares objective probability forecasts for many variables, using statistical procedures. Hence probability forecasting in meteorology is unique in that very large sets of probability forecasts that have been subjected to detailed evaluation are available. This article has four objectives: (a) to review the history of probability forecasting in meteorology to acquaint statisticians with this body of literature; (b) to describe recent methodological, experimental, and operational activities in this field; (c) to examine current issues in probability forecasting; and (d) to discuss briefly the relationship between probability forecasting in meteorology and probability forecasting in other fields. Results of operational and experimental weather forecasting programs are presented, methods of verifying and evaluating probability forecasts in common use in meteorology are discussed, and an extensive list of references is provided.