Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River, USA
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This paper distinguishes human and climate influences on the Columbia River streamflow disturbance regime, examines how this disturbance regime has changed over the last 150 years, and discusses downstream impacts. Flow management and withdrawal have greatly curtailed exceedence of the natural bankfull level of ∼20 000 m3 s-1. The frequency distribution of Columbia River flow has also changed. Sediment transport is positively correlated with streamflow standard deviation, and has been greatly reduced by flow regulation. Three kinds of spring freshet style have been identified; there are also three kinds of winter freshet. Flow regulation and regional climate warming have changed freshet styles and reduced maximum flows during the spring season. Downstream effects of hydrological alterations include increased salinity intrusion length, loss of shallow water habitat area during the freshet season, increased tides throughout most of the year, and a decrease in area of the Columbia River plume during spring and summer. Although climate changes and variations have played a substantial role in changing the hydrological disturbance regime, their influence is still less than that of human manipulation of the flow cycle. Citation Jay, D. A. & Naik, P. K. (2011) Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River, USA. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1186–1209.
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Maximum spring freshet flows are down 40-45% on average, mostly due to flow regulation and irrigation.
“Additionally, maximum spring freshet flows are down 40-45% on average, mostly due to flow regulation and irrigation.”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Jay and Naik 2011b
Section 4 (Historical Changes in Overbank Flow; page unavailable) says flow regulation and irrigation depletion have reduced high-flow days and that regulation and diversion have smoothed spring freshet flows. Section 6 (Climate and Human Influences on Freshet Styles; page unavailable) also says regulation decreases freshet magnitude. The cited passages do not establish the claimed average 40–45% reduction in maximum flows. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMean annual flows in the LCRE are 15-17% below pre-1900 levels, primarily due to climate change and water withdrawal for agriculture.
“Mean annual flows are 15-17% below pre-1900 levels, primarily due to climate change and water withdrawal for agriculture (Jay and Naik 2011b; Naik and Jay 2011a, b).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Jay and Naik 2011b
Section 4 (page unavailable) reports lower historical-to-later average annual virgin flow at The Dalles and discusses irrigation depletion and climate influences on flow. It does not give a 15–17% reduction in mean annual flow relative to pre-1900 levels or attribute that specific reduction primarily to climate change and agricultural withdrawal. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe FCRPS and, to a lesser extent to date, climate change, have greatly altered the annual runoff hydrograph for the mainstem Columbia and its LCRE tributaries.
“The FCRPS and, to a lesser extent to date, climate change, have greatly altered the annual runoff hydrograph for the mainstem Columbia and its LCRE tributaries, e.g., Willamette, Lewis, and Cowlitz Rivers (Jay and Naik 2011;Naik andJay 2005, 2011a).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Jay and Naik 2011
The Abstract and §1.1 say human flow manipulation changed the Columbia River’s flow cycle more than climate did, and §6 describes altered freshet flows in the mainstem and Willamette River. The paper does not establish the claimed change in the annual runoff hydrographs of the specifically named Lewis and Cowlitz Rivers, so that extension is unsupported by this source. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Research works printed but not linked: 38
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System
Templeton, W. J., Jay, D. A., Diefenderfer, H. L., & Talke, S. A. (2024) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-023-01229-3 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…restoration can be challenging because multiple factors, including bathymet-ric and hydrological changes, alter wetland extent but also the hydrodynamic response of the system, including tides and mean water levels (Helaire et al. 2019; Hoitink & Jay 2016; Jay et al. 2011; Talke & Jay 2020).”
InfluentialSelf-citationA salmon ecosystem conceptual foundation for estuary restoration
Bottom, D. L., Jones, K. K., Borde, A. B., Krueger, K. L., Johnson, G. E., Castro, J. M., & Thom, R. M. (2025) · Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.1139/cjfas-2025-0139 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Jay, D. A., & Naik, P. K.
- Affiliations
- Portland State University (US)
- Directorate of Agricultural Engineering and Water Resources, Ministry of Municipality Affairs and Urban Planning
- Corresponding author
- Jay, David A.
- Naik, Pradeep K.
- Venue
- Hydrological Sciences Journal
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2011-10
- Volume
- 56
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1186-1209
- ISSN
- 0262-6667 (ISSN-L)
- 2150-3435
- OpenAlex
- W2008345732
- Cited by
- 47
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 2.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Hydrological Sciences Journal (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- BC Hydro
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- U.S. Geological Survey
- Bonneville Power Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- Columbia River, global warming, flow regulation, bankfull flow, sediment transport, spring freshet, saltwater intrusion, river plume, downstream effects, flow management, water abstraction
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