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Impact of climate warming on passive night cooling potential
Abstract
Night-time ventilation is often seen as a promising passive cooling concept. However, as it requires a sufficiently high temperature difference between ambient air and the building structure, this technique is highly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. In order to quantify the impact of climate warming on the night-time ventilative cooling potential in Europe, eight representative locations across a latitudinal transect were considered. Based on a degree-hours method, site-specific regression models were developed to predict the climatic cooling potential (CCP) from minimum daily air temperature (T min). CCP was computed for present conditions (1961–90) using measured T min data from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) database. Possible time-dependent changes in CCP were assessed for 1990–2100, with particular emphasis on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘A2’ and ‘B2’ scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Time-dependent, site-specific T min scenarios were constructed from 30 Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data sets, as obtained from the European PRUDENCE project. Under both emissions scenarios and across all locations and seasons, CCP was found to decrease substantially by the end of the 21st century. For the six Central and Northern European locations (>47°N) CCP was found to decrease in summer (June–August) by 20–50%. For the two Southern European locations (Madrid and Athens), future CCP was found to become negligible during the summer and to decrease by 20–55% during the spring and the autumn. The study clearly shows that night-time cooling potential will cease to be sufficient to ensure thermal comfort in many Southern and Central European buildings. In Central and Northern Europe, a significant passive cooling potential is likely to remain, at least for the next few decades. Upper and lower bound estimates for future CCP were found to diverge strongly in the course of the 21st century, suggesting the need for flexible building design and for risk assessments that account for a wide range of emissions scenarios and uncertainty in climate model results. La ventilation nocturne est souvent considérée comme un concept de refroidissement passif prometteur. Toutefois, cette technique nécessitant une différence de température suffisamment élevée entre l'air ambiant et la structure du bâtiment, elle est très sensible aux changements des conditions climatiques. Pour quantifier l'impact du réchauffement climatique sur les possibilités de refroidissement par ventilation nocturne, on a considéré huit emplacements représentatifs sur une transversale latitudinale en Europe. Sur la base d'une méthode ‘degrés-heures’, on a développé des modèles de régression spécifiques à des sites pour prévoir le potentiel de refroidissement climatique (CCP) à partir de la température quotidienne minimale de l'air (T min). On a calculé le CCP pour les conditions présentes pendant la période 1961–90 en utilisant les données T min de la base de données ECA (Evaluation du climat européen). On a évalué de possibles changements du CCP liés à la durée pour la période 1990–2100, en mettant l'accent sur les scénarios A2 et B2 du GIEC (Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat) relatifs aux futures émissions de gaz à effet de serre et aux aérosols. Des scénarios liés à la durée, avec T min spécifiques aux sites ont été élaborés à partir de 30 ensembles de données de modèles de climats régionaux simulés obtenus dans le cadre du projet européen PRUDENCE. Pour les deux scénarios d'émission et pour tous les emplacements et saisons, on a constaté que le CCP diminuait de façon substantielle dès la fin du XXIe siècle. Pour les six emplacements en Europe centrale et en Europe du Nord (>47° nord), on a constaté que le CCP diminuait de 20–50% (juin–août). Pour les deux emplacements en Europe du Sud (Madrid et Athènes), on a constaté que le futur CCP devenait négligeable pendant l'été et diminuait de 20–55% pendant le printemps et l'automne. Cette étude montre clairement que le potentiel de refroidissement nocturne cessera d'être suffisant pour assurer le confort thermique dans de nombreux bâtiments construits en Europe du Sud et en Europe centrale. En Europe centrale et en Europe du Nord, un potentiel significatif de refroidissement passif va vraisemblablement durer pendant au moins les prochaines décennies. Il s'est avéré que les estimations supérieures et inférieures du futur CCP divergeaient nettement dans le courant du XXIe siècle, ce qui suggère la nécessité de concevoir les bâtiments avec souplesse et d'évaluer le risque en tenant compte d'une large gamme de scénarios d'émission et de l'incertitude des résultats des modèles climatiques. Mots clés: changements climatiques, scénarios climatiques, potentiel de refroidissement climatique, ventilation nocturne, refroidissement passif, Europe
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The climatic cooling potential (CCP) was expected to decrease by 20-50% in Central and Northern Europe by the end of the 21st century.
“The CCP was expected to decrease by 20-50% in Central and Northern Europe by the end of the 21st century.”
From Resilient cooling strategies – A critical review and qualitative assessment (2021) · cites this paper as [182]
Future warming would have a significant impact on the night-time ventilative cooling potential across Europe.
“Their study indicated that future warming would have a significant impact on the night-time ventilative cooling potential across Europe.”
From Resilient cooling strategies – A critical review and qualitative assessment (2021) · cites this paper as [182]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Artmann, N., Gyalistras, D., Manz, H., & Heiselberg, P.
- Affiliations
- Empa (CH)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Aalborg University (DK)
- ORCID
- Heiselberg, P.
- Venue
- Building Research & Information
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-03
- Volume
- 36
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 111-128
- ISSN
- 0961-3218 (ISSN-L)
- 1466-4321
- OpenAlex
- W2113250831
- Cited by
- 44
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Building Research & Information (publishedVersion)
- DORA Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa)) (submittedVersion)
- VBN Forskningsportal (Aalborg Universitet) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Bundesamt für Energie
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building Energy and Comfort Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Solar Energy Systems and Technologies
- Keywords
- night ventilation, passive cooling, global warming, regional climate model, thermal comfort, building energy demand, Europe, emission scenarios, uncertainty in climate projections, risk assessment, latitudinal transect, Madrid, Athens
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