Influence of fossil-fuel power plant emissions on the surface fine particulate matter in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea
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UNLABELLED: The South Korean government plans to reduce region-wide annual PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) concentrations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) from 2010 levels of 27 µg/m(3) to 20 µg/m(3) by 2024. At the same time, it is inevitable that emissions from fossil-fuel power plants will continue to increase if electricity generation expands and the generation portfolio remains the same in the future. To estimate incremental PM2.5 contributions due to projected electricity generation growth in South Korea, we utilized an ensemble forecasting member of the Integrated Multidimensional Air Quality System for Korea based on the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model. We performed sensitivity runs with across-the-board emission reductions for all fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea to estimate the contribution of PM2.5 from domestic fossil-fuel power plants. We estimated that fossil-fuel power plants are responsible for 2.4% of the annual PM2.5 national ambient air quality standard in the SCA as of 2010. Based on the electricity generation and the annual contribution of fossil-fuel power plants in 2010, we estimated that annual PM2.5 concentrations may increase by 0.2 µg/m(3) per 100 TWhr due to additional electricity generation. With currently available information on future electricity demands, we estimated that the total future contribution of fossil-fuel power plants would be 0.87 µg/m(3), which is 12.4% of the target reduction amount of the annual PM2.5 concentration by 2024. We also approximated that the number of premature deaths caused by existing fossil-fuel power plants would be 736 in 2024. Since the proximity of power plants to the SCA and the types of fuel used significantly impact this estimation, further studies are warranted on the impact of physical parameters of plants, such as location and stack height, on PM2.5 concentrations in the SCA due to each precursor. IMPLICATIONS: Improving air quality by reducing fine particle pollution is challenging when fossil-fuel-based electricity production is increasing. We show that an air quality forecasting system based on a photochemical model can be utilized to efficiently estimate PM2.5 contributions from and health impacts of domestic power plants. We derived PM2.5 concentrations per unit amount of electricity production from existing fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea. We assessed the health impacts of existing fossil-fuel power plants and the PM2.5 concentrations per unit electricity production to quantify the significance of existing and future fossil-fuel power plants with respect to the planned PM2.5 reduction target.
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Other studies in non-Arctic locations found variable contributions to total PM2.5 (primary plus secondary) ranging from 0.0 to 4.3 μg m-3 depending on meteorology, emission controls and stack characteristics, however primary PM2.5 contributions were not diagnosed separately.
“Other studies, in non-Arctic locations, found variable contributions to total PM2.5 (primary plus secondary) ranging from 0.0 to 4.3 μg m–3 depending on meteorology, emission controls and stack characteristics,18,21,22 however, primary PM2.5 contributions were not diagnosed separately.”
From Estimating Power Plant Contributions to Surface Pollution in a Wintertime Arctic Environment (2025) · cites this paper as [21]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Kim, B.-U., Kim, O., Kim, H. C., & Kim, S.
- Affiliations
- Georgia Department of Natural Resources (US)
- Ajou University (KR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Venue
- Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2016-07-07
- Volume
- 66
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 863-873
- ISSN
- 1047-3289 (ISSN-L)
- 1096-2247
- 2162-2906
- OpenAlex
- W2511735847
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 1.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Korea Ministry of Environment
- National Research Foundation of Korea (2014M3C8A5030624)
- Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning
- PM2.5 Research Center
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Environmental and Air Quality Management
- Keywords
- PM2.5, fossil fuel power plants, air quality forecasting, emission reduction, premature mortality, air pollution health effects, air quality standards, fuel type
- MeSH terms
- Air Pollutants, Air Pollution, Environmental Monitoring, Forecasting, Fossil Fuels, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Power Plants, Particulate Matter, Mortality, Premature, Seoul
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