Opposition in transition: pre-electoral coalitions and the 2018 electoral breakthrough in Malaysia
Open accessAbstract
In May 2018, the Malaysian opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan or Hope Alliance won the federal elections for the first time in the history of the country. The electoral authoritarian system is now in a state of transition. The electoral breakthrough was the result of longer-term socio-economic transformations, but the formation of a strong pre-electoral coalition was ultimately decisive for the victory. The article compares various coalitions and their performance during seven elections since 1990. The structured, focused comparison analyses the coalitions during this period because prior to 1990 the opposition was fragmented. On the basis of a three-level concept regarding the strength of pre-electoral coalitions, the article argues that Pakatan Harapan was successful because the coalition was sufficiently comprehensive (as indicated by the number and the competitiveness of candidates), cohesive (concerning ideological proximity and behavioural routinization) and well-rooted in society (in terms of linkages to voters/supporters and to civil society networks or organizations).
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The Budapest candidate ran and won on a platform of representing the people against the seat of power, a pro-Europe and green agenda, and willingness to work with the national government.
“The Budapest candidate ran and won on a platform of representing the people against the seat of power, a pro-Europe and green agenda, and a willingness to work in a partnership with the national government.”
From Pernicious polarization, autocratization and opposition strategies (2021) · cites this paper as [49]
The 2018 electoral victory section discusses Malaysia’s Pakatan Harapan campaign and manifesto, not a Budapest candidate. Searches for the Budapest candidate and the claimed pro-Europe, green, and national-government partnership platform found no passage addressing those points in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization
Brownlee, J. (2007) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802348 · Cited by 1,070 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 39
- See on collective action problems of individual parties within Malaysian opposition coalitions: Dett- mann, "Dilemmas." See also the excellent dissertation by Ong, Opposing Power, who focusses on the coordination of campaigning and on coalition agreements to reduce the number of candidates.
- Abbott, Jason, and John Wagner Givens. "Strategic Censorship in a Hybrid Authoritarian Regime? Differential Bias in Malaysia's Online and Print Media." Journal of East Asian Studies 15, no. 3 (2015): 455-478.
- Abdullah, Walid Jumblatt. "Inclusion-moderation or Political Opportunity? Lessons from the Case of Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, PAS)." Commonwealth & Comparative Politics 56, no. 4 (2018): 407-426.
- Abdullah, Walid Jumblatt. "The Mahathir Effect in Malaysia's 2018 Election: The Role of Credible Personalities in Regime Transitions." Democratization 6 (2019): 521-536.
- Bunce, Valerie, and Sharon Wolchik. "Defeating Dictators: Electoral Change and Stability in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes." World Politics 62, no. 1 (2010): 43-86.
- Bunce, Valerie, and Sharon Wolchik. "Getting Real About "Real Causes"." Journal of Democracy 20, no. 1 (2009): 69-73.
- Chin, James, and Wong Chin Huat. "Malaysia's Electoral Upheaval." Journal of Democracy 20, no. 3 (2009): 71-85.
- Dettman, Sebastian, and Meredith L. Weiss. "Has Patronage Lost Its Punch in Malaysia?" The Round Table 107, no. 6 (2018): 739-754.
- Funston, John. "Malaysiás Tenth Elections: Status Quo, Reformasi or Islamization?" Contemporary Southeast Asia 22, no. 1 (2000): 23-59.
- Funston, John. "Malaysia's 14th General Election (GE14) -The Contest for the Malay Electorate." Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 37, no. 3 (2018): 57-83.
- Gandhi, Jennifer, and Ellen Lust-Okar. "Elections under Authoritarianism." Annual Review of Political Science 14 (2009): 403-422.
- Golder, Sona Nadenichek. The Logic of Pre-Electoral Coalition Formation. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2006.
- Govindasamy, Anantha Raman. "Social Movements in Contemporary Malaysia: The Cases of BERSIH, HINDRAF and Perkasa." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Malaysia, edited by Meredith L. Weiss, 116-126. Abingdon: Routledge, 2015.
- Howard, Marc M., and Philip G. Roessler. "Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes." American Journal of Political Science 50 (2006): 365-381.
- Hutchinson, Francis E. "Malaysia's Federal System: Overt and Covert Centralisation." Journal of Contemporary Asia 44, no. 3 (2014): 422-442.
- Hutchinson, Francis E. "Malaysia's 14th General Election: Drivers and Agents of Change." Asian Affairs 49, no. 4 (2018): 582-605.
- Khoo, Boo Teik. "Borne by Dissent, Tormented by Divides: The Opposition 60 Years after Merdeka." Southeast Asian Studies 7, no. 3 (2018): 471-491.
- Levitsky, Steven. "Institutionalization and Peronism: the Concept, the Case and the Case for Unpacking the Concept." Party Politics 4, no. 1 (1998): 77-92.
- Lindberg, Staffan. Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009.
- Magaloni, Beatriz. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
- Mainwaring, Scott, and Mariano Torcal. "Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory after the Third Wave of Democratization." In Handbook of Party Politics, edited by Richard S. Katz, and William J. Crotty, 204-227. London/Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE, 2006.
- Means, Gordon P. Malaysian Politics: The Second Generation. Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1991.
- Morgenbesser, Lee, and Thomas B. Pepinsky. "Elections as Causes of Democratization: Southeast Asia in Comparative Perspective." Electoral Studies (2018). Accessed December 9, 2018. doi:10.1177/ 0010414018758763. · DOI
- Ostwald, Kai. "How to Win a Lost Election: Malapportionment in Malaysia's 2013 General Election." The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs 102, no. 6 (2013): 521-532.
- Ostwald, Kai, Paul Schuler, and Jie Ming Chong. "Triple Duel: The Impact of Coalition Fragmentation and Three-Corner Fights on the 2018 Malaysian Election." Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 3 (2018): 31-55.
- Pepinsky, Thomas B. "The 2013 Malaysian Elections: Ethnic Politics or Urban Wave?." Journal of East Asian Studies 15, no. 2 (2015): 167-198.
- Randall, Vicky, and Lars Svåsand. "Party Institutionalization in New Democracies." Party Politics 8, no. 1 (2002): 5-29.
- Saravanamuttu, Johan, and Maznah Mohamad. "The Monetisation of Consent and its Limits: Explaining Political Dominance and Decline in Malaysia." Journal of Contemporary Asia (2019). https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2019.1569710 · DOI
- Schedler, Andreas. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013.
- Tapsell, Ross. "The Smartphone as the "Weapon of the Weak": Assessing the Role of Communication Technologies in Malaysia's Regime Change." Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 3 (2018): 9-29.
- Ufen, Andreas. "The Transformation of Political Party Opposition in Malaysia and its Implications for the Electoral Authoritarian Regime." Democratization 16, no. 3 (2009): 604-627.
- Ufen, Andreas. "Laissez-faire Versus Strict Control of Political Finance: Hegemonic Parties and Developmental States in Malaysia and Singapore." Critical Asian Studies 47, no. 4 (2015): 564-586.
- Vladisavljević, Nebojša. "Competitive Authoritarianism and Popular Protest: Evidence from Serbia under Milošević." International Political Science Review 37, no. 1 (2016): 36-50.
- Wahman, Michael. "Offices and Policies -Why do Oppositional Parties Form Pre-Electoral Coalitions in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes?" Electoral Studies 30 (2011): 642-657.
- Weiss, Meredith L. "Edging Toward a New Politics in Malaysia: Civil Society at the Gate?" Asian Survey 49, no. 5 (2009): 741-758.
- Weiss, Meredith L. "Payoffs, Parties, or Policies: 'Money Politics' and Electoral Authoritarian Resilience." Critical Asian Studies 48, no. 1 (2016): 77-99.
- Welsh, Bridget. "Malaysia's Elections: A Step Backward." Journal of Democracy 24, no. 4 (2013): 136-150.
- Welsh, Bridget. "Saviour' Politics and Malaysia's 2018 Electoral Democratic Breakthrough: Rethinking Explanatory Narratives and Implications." Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 37, no. 3 (2018): 85-108.
- Wong, Chin-Huat. "Constituency Delimitation and Electoral Authoritarianism in Malaysia." The Round Table 107, no. 1 (2018): 67-80.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Pernicious polarization, autocratization and opposition strategies
Somer, M., McCoy, J. L., & Luke, R. E. (2021) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1865316 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Political Oppositions in Democratic and Authoritarian Regimes: A State-of-the-Field(s) Review
Helms, L. (2022) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1017/gov.2022.25 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
“…Harapan was successful because it scored highly in terms of comprehensiveness, cohesiveness and linkage to voters and civil society networks (see Ufen 2020), the Malaysian experience still comes as a major challenge to virtually all assumptions governing the established ‘ opposition-split…”
Authoritarian innovations and democratic reform in the “New Malaysia”
Dettman, S. (2020) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2019.1705791 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Helms, L. (2021) · European Political Science · doi:10.1057/s41304-021-00323-z · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“The most impressive recent example at the national level, however, relates to Malaysia, where the oppositional coalition Pakatan Harapan (or Hope Alliance) won the federal elections in 2018 for the first time in the history of the country (see Ufen 2020).”
Background“New normal” no more: democratic backsliding in Singapore after 2015
Abdullah, W. J. (2020) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1764940 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Balta, E., & Demiralp, S. (2024) · Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2024.2338504 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“…and Balta 2021), having a clear governance scheme that decreases post-election uncertainty (Ong 2021), effective use of the media and information, having strong linkages to civil society networks or organizations (Ufen 2020) and the extent of social and ideological divisions within the opposition.”
InfluentialLimits of autocratisation: actors and institutions of democratic resistance and opposition
Yabanci, B., Akkoyunlu, K., & Öktem, K. (2025) · Third World Quarterly · doi:10.1080/01436597.2025.2462248 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“Electoral coalitions, in particular, are often highlighted as critical (Arriola 2013; Gandhi and Reuter 2013; Howard and Roessler 2006; Ong 2022; Ufen 2020).”
How opposition parties unite in competitive authoritarian regimes: the role of an intermediary party
Musil, P. A. (2023) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2023.2260762 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Clientelist and Programmatic Factionalism Within Malaysian Political Parties
Ufen, A. (2020) · Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs · doi:10.1177/1868103420916047 · Cited by 11
“…factionalism has always been an important part of partisan politics, and, one might argue, factionalism lay at the heart of the fragmentation and collapse of the electoral authoritarian system that came with the 2018 national elections when the BN lost its majority for the first time (Ufen, 2020).”
BackgroundSelf-citationCoordinated Voting Against the Autocracy: The Case of the ‘Smart Vote’ Strategy in Russia
Turchenko, M., & Golosov, G. (2022) · European Studies · doi:10.1080/09668136.2022.2147485 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
One, two and now several: the evolution of coalition politics in Malaysia
Wong, C.-H. (2023) · The Round Table · doi:10.1080/00358533.2023.2219523 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“This led to the formation of PH by PKR, DAP and PAS’ moderate and multiethnic splinter National Trust Party (Parti Amanah Negara, Amanah), subsequently joined by Bersatu in 2017 (Ufen, 2020; Wong, 2018b).”
MethodWhen you come at the king: Opposition coalitions and nearly stunning elections
Samet, O. (2024) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12920 · Cited by 7
UMNO in GE15: factionalism and its effects
Nadzri, M. M. N., & Azlan, A. (2023) · The Round Table · doi:10.1080/00358533.2023.2219536 · Cited by 7
Opposition failures in forming pre-electoral coalitions in Zimbabwe
Mwonzora, G. (2022) · Journal of Contemporary African Studies · doi:10.1080/02589001.2023.2180141 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Ahmad, N. A., Drus, S. M., & Kasim, H. (2022) · Journal of Systems and Information Technology · doi:10.1108/jsit-11-2020-0254 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Political support in an ethnically divided society: a case study of Malaysia
Jou, W., & Ooi, K.-H. (2022) · Asian Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1080/02185377.2022.2048874 · Cited by 5
Osman, M., & Gomez, E. T. (2020) · doi:10.1080/00358533.2020.1741879 · Cited by 3
“(W. J. Abdullah, 2019; Ufen, 2020); the protest votes of Malay voters (Rahman, 2019); effective coalition building (Rahim, 2018); the part played by social media (Welsh, 2019); the BN’s failure to win over young voters (Welsh, 2019); the role of foreign actors (Malhi, 2019); and the swing in votes in the two Borneo st…”
BackgroundCasani, A., & Colin, F. (2026) · Mediterranean Politics · doi:10.1080/13629395.2026.2700532 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Taraktaş, B., & Cetin, U. (2025) · Turkic Studies · doi:10.1080/14683849.2025.2576098 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Endogenous opposition: Identity and ideology in Kuwaiti electoral politics
Tavana, D. L. (2025) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/ajps.12960 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
He, J., Song, W.-L., & Yan, Y. (2025) · Representation · doi:10.1080/00344893.2025.2451841 · Cited by 2
Transitioning from aggregated bipartism: state elections in Malaysia, May 2018–March 2022
Wong, C.-H. (2023) · Regional & Federal Studies · doi:10.1080/13597566.2023.2271413 · Cited by 2
Mahathir Mohamad in Public Policy and Politics of Malaysia
Haryono, E., & Ziegenhain, P. (2022) · Populasi · doi:10.22146/jp.80192 · Cited by 2
Kourou, N. S., & Ertürk, A. (2026) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/00323217261432360 · Cited by 1
Uzun, B. (2026) · Third World Quarterly · doi:10.1080/01436597.2026.2646519 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Power Dispersion as a Barrier to Autocratization: The Paradox of Indonesia’s Compromised Democracy
Mukhlis, M., Paikah, N., & Wiranti, W. (2025) · Jurnal Penelitian Hukum De Jure · doi:10.30641/dejure.2025.v25.249-266 · Cited by 1
“In Malaysia, elite pacts have produced a “cartelized democracy” 42 , whereas in Thailand, military intervention repeatedly resets electoral competition.”
Turchenko, M., Zavadskaya, M., & Golosov, G. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2507360 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Subnational executive offices as stepping-stones to defeat authoritarian leaders
Demir, G. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2505199 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
‘A Culmination of Many Factors’: Opportunities, Arenas, and Challenges to Malaysia’s Dominant Regime
Southgate, L., & O'Brien, T. (2025) · Democracy and Security · doi:10.1080/17419166.2025.2459061 · Cited by 1
Ng, W.-L., & Tiung, L. K. (2024) · International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences · doi:10.6007/ijarbss/v14-i6/21705 · Cited by 1
“Some studies may depict the election as a contest between the government and opposition parties, while others may focus on themes such as corruption, the economy, and social welfare (Ufen, 2020).”
BackgroundRepeated Elections and Opposition Challenges in Malaysia
Taniguchi, Y. (2020) · doi:10.33774/apsa-2020-8852s · Cited by 1
From actors to practices: new typology of opposition from Russia and Belarus
Azarkevich, Y. (2026) · Post-Soviet Affairs · doi:10.1080/1060586x.2026.2733282
Muzammil, M. (2026) · Critical Asian studies (Print) · doi:10.1080/14672715.2026.2712304
Challenging the Monopoly Giant: Market Challenger Premium as Competitive Advantages
Au, C.-H., & Chou, C.-Y. (2026) · The International Journal on Media Management · doi:10.1080/14241277.2026.2694627
“The opposition alliance Pakatan Harapan (PH) 14 foregrounded hope – from its name to a policy platform appealing to voters’ future aspirations – which significantly contributed to its victory (Ufen, 2020).”
Hasram, K. (2026) · Politics, Religion & Ideology · doi:10.1080/21567689.2026.2693762
Ajwang, F., & Lugano, G. (2025) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2532671
Manggana, U., Therik, W. M. A., Mardimin, J., & Kameo, D. D. (2024) · Asian Journal of Social and Humanities · doi:10.59888/ajosh.v2i7.294
Kesepaduan Nasional Penduduk Kawasan Rukun Tetangga di Malaysia
Beh, S. H., Pue, G. H., Ishak, M. S., & Noor, M. M. (2021) · Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities · doi:10.47405/mjssh.v6i7.821
An Overview of Entrepreneurship in Malaysia
Hamidon, S., & Huxtable-Thomas, L. (2021) · Entrepreneurial Activity in Malaysia · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77753-1_2
Croissant, A. (2021) · Political Corruption and Organizational Crime · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-34374-3_4
- Authors
- Ufen, A.
- Affiliations
- German Institute for Global and Area Studies (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Ufen, Andreas
- ORCID
- Ufen, Andreas
- Venue
- Democratization
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2019-09-13
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 167-184
- ISSN
- 1351-0347 (ISSN-L)
- 1743-890X
- OpenAlex
- W2972778306
- Cited by
- 74
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 4
- FWCI
- 17.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Democratization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Social Science Open Access Repository (GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Asian Studies and History
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Keywords
- Pakatan Harapan, pre-electoral coalitions, 2018 Malaysian general election, electoral authoritarianism, coalition cohesion, civil society networks, electoral reform, opposition fragmentation
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review