Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization

“Indeed, Brownlee (2007) finds no evidence that elections affect regime survival in a large-n analysis of authoritarian regimes, although he does find that holding elections under an authoritarian regime increases the likelihood that a subsequent regime will be democratic (Brownlee 2009).”

“…dictators might find it beneficial to allow political competition in order to gather information about the loyalty of their party cadres and about the actual power their opponents enjoy (Ames 1970, Magaloni 2006, Birney 2007, Brownlee 2007, Cox 2008, Kricheli 2008, Blaydes 2009, Lorentzen 2009).”

“A growing literature examines the role of parties (Brownlee 2007; Geddes 1999; Magaloni 2006; Smith 2005), legislatures (Boix and Svolik 2007; Gandhi and Przeworski 2006; Myerson 2008; Wright 2008), elections (Blaydes 2007; Lust-Okar 2006), or the bureaucracy (Slater 2003) in authoritarian regimes.”

“33 See, for example, Brownlee 2009; Weeks 2008; Wright 2008. in response to internal splits’.34 This prediction does not follow from the existence of a co-ordination game, for the mere existence of multiple equilibria has no bearing on the stability of any single equilibrium.”

“14 Space does not permit exploring the merits of alternative ways of differentiating among authoritarian regimes, but see Arendt (1951), Brooker (2000), Brownlee (2007), Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland (2010), Ezrow and Frantz (2011), Friedrich and Brzezinski (1956), FIGURE 1.”

“20 Brownlee 2007, 13.”

“147 Brownlee 2007a. 148 Blaydes 2011.”

“During the 1990s and 2000s, several authors have researched the role of these elections in authoritarian regimes (Brownlee 2007, Greene 2007, Gandhi and Lust Okar 2009, Levitsky and Way 2010).”

“52 Brownlee 2007, ch. 1, 3–4.”

“And why have so many authoritarian regimes in the postcolonial world survived the end of the Cold War whereas many others have collapsed (Brownlee, 2007; Levitsky & Way, 2010; Slater, 2010)?”

“In addition to these internal characteristics, the revived research on authoritarian regimes has increasingly recognised the international dimensions of authoritarianism (Ambrosio 2010; Brownlee 2007; Bunce & Wolchik 2011; Burnell 2010; Levitsky & Way 2002, 2010).”

“Institutions like parties, parliaments, courts, and elections are discussed mainly insofar as they provide the autocratic regime with functioning avenues for co-optation and repression (Brownlee, 2007; Gandhi, 2008; Magaloni, 2008; Svolik, 2012).”

“Multiparty elections help regimes identify discontent because votes for opposition candidates reveal the constituencies in which regimes have weak support (Brownlee 2007, Magaloni 2008).”

“A number of case studies also examine how hybrid regimes manipulate democratic elements (Blaydes, 2011; Brownlee, 2007; Hermet, Rose, & Rouquié, 1978; Levitsky & Way, 2010; Magaloni, 2006).”

“Election results matter because they signal the regime’s level of control over the political arena (Brownlee 2007, 3), as well as (more noisily) its level of popular support (Gandhi 2008, 167; Gandhi and Lust-Okar 2009, 405).”

“Authoritarian regimes increasingly rely upon institutional forms commonly associated with liberal democracy, first among them relatively independent judiciaries and multiparty elections (Brownlee 2007).”

“5 Levitsky and Way 2010; Smith 2007; Brownlee 2007; and Slater 2010.”

“Among others (McFaul 2002; Brownlee 2007; Stepan 2009; Magaloni and Kricheli 2010; Diamond 2015).”

“Brownlee (2007) argues that parties serve to hold elite coalitions together; the analysis here can be seen as describing organizational prerequisites for elite cohesion.”

“See, for example, Boix and Svolik (2011), Brownlee (2007), Gandhi (2008), Gandhi and Przeworski (2006, 2007), Geddes (1999b, 2009), Gehlbach and Keefer (2008), Magaloni (2006), Smith (2005), Weeks (2008), and J. Wright (2008).”

“4 Brownlee 2007, Magaloni 2006, Smith 2005.”

“…remains limited in comparison with that devoted to the role of civil society during periods of democratization, but it has expanded rapidly alongside an upsurge of theoretical interest in authoritarianism as a political system (on the latter, see Art, 2012; Brownlee, 2007; Levitsky & Way, 2010).”

“The result of these intricate electoral systems is an executive–legislative deadlock, with a pro-regime majority guaranteed in the legislature while the accountability of lawmakers is fragmented and spread among their diverse electorates.24 22 Levitsky and Way 2012, 871–72; Brownlee 2007, 12.”

“Furthermore, rather than call for the abandonment of the concept of hybrid regimes altogether as some scholars have done (Armony and Schamis 2005; Brownlee 2007), it proposes an alternative perspective from which to re-design the conceptual field of political regimes.”

“…in the 1950s, reflecting the creation of three ethnically based parties (umno, mca, and mic) and their banding together in the ruling alliance—a pact that has formed the 71 Brownlee 2007; croissant and Volkel 2012; hicken and Kuhonta 2015; hutchroft and rocamora 2003; Quimpo 2005; Ufen 2012.”

“Second, the scholarship in this area remains almost entirely divorced from the large and growing literature on authoritarianism (Brownlee, 2007; Gandhi, 2008; Svolik, 2012).”

“…in coercive capacity (Bellin 2004; Ross 2001; Way 2005), party institutions (Brownlee 2007; Geddes 2006; Levitsky and Way 2010; Magaloni 2008; Smith 2005; Way 2005, 2008), state penetration (Levitsky and Way 2010; Slater 2006), and internal cohesion (Brownlee 2007; O’Donnell and Schmitter 1986).”

“…builds on and contributes to the literature on co-optation in autocracies by looking beyond the role of formal political institutions—regime parties, legislatures, and elections—in co-opting elite actors (Gerschewski 2013; Svolik 2012; Brownlee 2007; Gandhi and Przeworski 2007; Magaloni 2006).”

“…matters greatly for public policy and democratic development, because it shapes the set of preferences and opinions to which the government responds.1 Even in non- democratic states, regimes often look to elections as a source of legitimacy and corrective feedback (Brownlee, 2007; Magaloni, 2006).”

“Indeed,elitedefectionplaysacentralroleinmanyofthe mostprominentrecentstudiesofauthoritarian longevity (Brownlee 2007; Hale 2014; Levitsky and Way 2010; Magaloni 2006).”

“If alteration in power occurs, the underlying mechanisms involve not only elections but rather multidimensional processes of political change (Bunce & Wolchik 2010, p. 43; Brownlee 2007).”

“In the ‘age of democratization’ (Brownlee, 2007) and a ‘Western’ liberal hegemony in the international system (Levitsky and Way, 2010), establishing a new communist ideocracy or a new ruling monarchy seems hardly possible.”

“60 O’Donnell and Schmitter 1986; Geddes 1999; Brownlee 2007.”

“As scholars have repeatedly pointed out (Linz and Chehabi 1998; Brownlee 2002, 2007, 2009), the neopatrimonial state is not based on a specific ideological system, as its main purpose is the maintenance of personal power; in some cases the ‘sultan’ may concede to formal elections or the formation…”

“…politics and the question of contestation, however limited or constrained, can be incorporated even in authoritarian regimes (Schedler 2006, Brownlee 2007); the ‘management’ of oppositional forces by incumbent regimes (Lust-Okar 2005); the creation of regime legitimacy (Gilley 2009) or…”

“Such conflict, they suggest, gives rise to the strong political parties that scholars such as Barbara Geddes (1999), Beatriz Magaloni (2006), Jason Brownlee (2007), and Milan Svolik(2012) have identified as critical for authoritarian persistence.”

“As a result, dominant party systems generate and maintain a cohesive leadership cadre (Brownlee, 2007; Smith, 2005).”

“…political base (Gandhi, 2008, pp. 78-79); “transmit societal concerns” and create an “arena in which those perspectives are renegotiated and reconciled” (Brownlee, 2007, p. 203); and can be used to coopt key segments of the general population (Svolik, 2012, p. 165).8 Military regimes generally…”

“…in african countries hardly changed over the ten-year period from 1965 to 1975—only increasing from four banks to five.24 the gatekeeping position that african governments acquired in finance afforded them the discretionary control needed to make the 21 lust-Okar 2005; Magaloni 2006; Brownlee 2007.”

“For some time now, scholars have been cautioning that democracies are in danger (Bermeo, 2016; Brownlee, 2007; Diamond, 2015; Schedler, 2002; Stepan, 2009).”

“By providing institutional guarantees about policy making and the distribution of spoils it gives elites an incentive to remain loyal to the regime (Brownlee 2007; Magaloni 2008).”

“Second, the current literature on authoritarianism emphasizes the role of elite unity and power sharing in sustaining authoritarianism (Brownlee, 2007; Gandhi, 2008; Magaloni, 2008; Svolik, 2012), whereas our findings suggest that elite cleavage may deter unbridled corruption.”

“…regulate the competition for power, non-democratic elections act as means to distribute the spoils (Blaydes 2011; Magaloni 2006), mitigate intra-regime conflicts (Boix and Svolik 2013; Geddes 2006), or solve information problems (Brownlee 2007; Cox 2009; Lust-Okar 2005; Malesky and Schuler 2011).”

“A regime party also serves to maintain stable mechanisms for recruitment and the distribution of patronage among elites (Brownlee 2007; Geddes 1999; Magaloni 2006).”

“See Diamond 2002; Levitsky and Way 2002; Magaloni 2006; Schedler 2006; Brownlee 2007.”

“Brownlee (2007) argues that successful dominant parties are those in which rival elite factions put their differences to bed and cooperate within the framework of the ruling party.”

“The creation of institutions such as a legislature, political parties, and bureaucratic offices generates positions that elites and opposition members can be used to fill, which is another form of cooptation (Brownlee, 2007; Gandhi, 2008).”

“An alternative account could be that executive actors prefer the relative privacy of party venues for the resolution of policy conflicts (Brownlee, 2007).”

“Significantly, these hybrid regimes are not all evolving in the direction of liberal democracy (Croissant and Merkel 2004, Brownlee 2007).”

“Conclusion: social service performance and the electoral authoritarianism’s legitimacy advantage hypothesis This research adds to our understanding of how authoritarianism can survive ‘in an age of democratisation’ (Brownlee, 2007).”

“Mass organization can enhance autocratic durability through social control and the mobilization of popular support, especially during elections (Brownlee, 2007; Huntington, 1968; Levitsky & Way, 2010; Magaloni, 2006; Zolberg, 1966).”