Cited by 73Banking stability, regulation, efficiencyBanking Sector Performance and ManagementIslamic Finance and Banking Studies

Assessing the determinants of non-performing loans under financial crisis and health crisis: evidence from the MENA banks

Open access
Alnabulsi, Khalil, Kozarević, Emira, Hakimi, Abdelaziz·2022·Cogent Economics & Finance

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to investigate determinants of non-performing loans in the Middle East and North Africa region by exploring the role of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors, particularly in the period of the global financial crisis, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, as a health crisis that translates to an economic crisis. This study includes 74 banks belonging to 11 MENA countries over the period 2005–2020 and uses the two-stage system generalized method of moment estimator. To conduct a comparative analysis, the whole sample is divided into two sub-samples. The first one is related to the Middle East countries and the second one covers North African countries. The empirical findings indicate that the level of non-performing loans is more sensitive to bank specifics than macroeconomic factors. When it comes to macroeconomic factors, macroeconomic environment and institutional quality significantly affect the level of NPLs. However, no significant effect has been detected regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1080/23322039.2022.2124665

Cites

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Financial liberalisation policies adopted in developed economies contributed to high exposure to cross-border contagion.

    “The empirical evidence shows that the financial liberalisation policies adopted in the developed economies contributed to a high degree of exposure of the economies to cross-border impacts of contagion (Alnabulsi et al., 2022).”

    From The Interactions Between Political Economy and Global Financial Crises: A Case Study of the 2008 Global Recession (2026) · cites this paper as Alnabulsi et al., 2022

    The empirical results for the whole sample (Section 4.1; page unavailable) discuss the global financial crisis and non-performing loans in MENA banks, not cross-border contagion. Searches for financial liberalisation in developed economies and for cross-border contagion or spillovers found no passage establishing the claimed link. (LLM, conf=0.72)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

No references could be resolved yet.

Research works printed but not linked: 65

  1. Ahmad, F. (2013). Corruption and information sharing as determinants of non-performing loans. Bsrj, 4(1), 87–23. https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2013-0008 · DOI
  2. Allen, F., & Gale, D. (2004). Competition and financial stability. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(3), 453–480. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0038 · DOI · Paper page
  3. Alnabulsi, K., & Kozarević, E. (2021). Interdependence between non-performing loans, financial stability and economic growth. 10th International Scientific Symposium “Region, Entrepreneurship, Development” (RED 2021), Osijek, Croatia, June 17. In M. Leko Šimić & B. Crnković (Proceedings of 10th International Scientific Symposium „Region, Entrepreneurship, Development”) ( Eds.) Eds. http://www.efos.unios.hr/red/wp-content/uploads/sites/20/2021/07/RED_2021_Proceedings.pdf(open in a new window).
  4. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968 · DOI · Paper page
  5. Arezki, R., Lederman, D., Abou Harb, A., Fan, R. Y., & Nguyen, H. (2019). Reforms and external imbalances: The labor-productivity connection in the Middle East and North Africa. 4th ed. Serial Publications “MENA Economic Update”, World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1408-2 · DOI
  6. Athanasoglou, P. P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18(2), 121–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2006.07.001. · DOI
  7. Bayar, Y. (2019). Macroeconomic, institutional and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in emerging market economies: A dynamic panel regression analysis. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 8(3), 95–110. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0026 · DOI
  8. Beck, T., & Demirguc-Kunt, A. (2006). Small and medium-size enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(11), 2931–2943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.05.009 · DOI
  9. Beck, R., Jakubik, P., & Piloiu, A. (2015). Key determinants of non-performing loans: new evidence from a global sample. Open Economies Review, 26(3), 525–550. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9358-8 · DOI
  10. Berger, A. N., & DeYoung, R. (1997). Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(6), 849–870. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00003-4 · DOI
  11. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8 · DOI · Paper page
  12. Bolarinwa, S. T., Akinyele, O., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does efficiency matter? Managerial and Decision Economics, 42(6), 1509–1524. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3323 · DOI
  13. Brahmana, R., Kontesa, M., & Gilbert, R. E. (2018). Income diversification and bank performance: Evidence from Malaysian banks. Economics Bulletin, 38(2), 799–809 http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2018/Volume38/EB-18-V38-I2-P79.pdf(open in a new window).
  14. Chaibi, H., & Ftiti, Z. (2015). Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study. Research in International Business and Finance, 33(C), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.06.001 · DOI
  15. Ćurak, M., Pepur, S., & Poposki, K. (2013). Determinants of non-performing loans – Evidence from Southeastern European banking systems. Banks and Bank Systems, 8(1), 45–53. https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/component/zoo/determinants-of-non-performing-loans-evidence-from-southeastern-european-banking-systems(open in a new window).
  16. Danisman, G. O., & Tarazi, A. (2020). Financial inclusion and bank stability: Evidence from Europe. European Journal of Finance, 26(18), 1842–1855. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2020.1782958 · DOI
  17. Dinçer, H., Yuksel, S., & Adah, Z. (2018). Relationship between non-performing loans, industry, and economic growth of the African economies and policy recommendations for global growth. In A. Coşkun Özer (Ed.), Globalization and trade integration in developing countries (chapter 9) (pp. 203–228). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-4032-8.ch009 · DOI
  18. Ghosh, A. (2015). Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states. Journal of Financial Stability, 20(C), 93–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.004 · DOI
  19. Githaiga, P. N. (2020). Human capital, income diversification and bank performance–an empirical study of East African banks. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 6(1), 95–108. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-06-2020-0041 · DOI
  20. Gnawali, A. (2018). Non-performing asset and its effects on profitability of Nepalese commercial banks. International Journal of Research in Business Studies and Management, 5(9), 39–47. https://www.ijrbsm.org/papers/v5-i9/5.pdf(open in a new window)
  21. Godlewski, C. J. (2005). Bank capital and credit risk taking in emerging market economies. Journal of Banking Regulation, 6(2), 128–145. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jbr.2340187 · DOI
  22. Hai Trung. (2021). Diversification and bank performance: The case of Vietnamese commercial banks. Journal of Economic and Banking Studies, 1, 23–34. https://hvnh.edu.vn/medias/tapchi/vi/07.2021/system/archivedate/ee9f97ca_B%C3%A0i%20c%E1%BB%A7a%20L%C3%AA%20H%E1%BA%A3i%20Trung.pdf(open in a new window)
  23. Hakimi, A., Boussaada, R., & Karmani, M. (2021). Are financial inclusion and bank stability friends or enemies? Evidence from MENA banks. Applied Economics, 54(21), 2473–2489. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1992342 · DOI
  24. Hasan, R., & Ashfaq, M. (2021). Corruption and its diverse effect on credit risk: Global evidence. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 1–13.
  25. Hue, N. T. M. (2015). Non-performing loans: Affecting factor for the sustainability of Vietnam commercial banks. Journal of Economics and Development, 17(1), 93–106. https://jed.neu.edu.vn/Uploads/JED%20Issue/2015/Vol%2017%20No1/Article%206_JED_Vol%2017_Number%201.pdf(open in a new window)
  26. Hu, J.-L., Li, Y., & Chiu, Y.-H. (2004). Ownership and nonperforming loans: Evidence from Taiwans banks. Developing Economies, 42(3), 405–420. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2004.tb00945.x · DOI
  27. Jabbouri, I., & Naili, M. (2019). Determinants of nonperforming loans in emerging markets: Evidence from the MENA region. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 22(4), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219091519500267 · DOI
  28. Jiménez, G., Lopez, J. A., & Saurina, J. (2013). How does competition affect bank risk-taking? Journal of Financial Stability, 9(2), 185–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2013.02.004 · DOI
  29. Jolevski, L. (2017). Non-performing loans and profitability indicators: The case of the Republic of Macedonia. Journal of Contemporary Economic and Business Issues, 4(2), 5–20. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/193475(open in a new window)
  30. Kartikasary, M., Marsintauli, F., Serlawati, E., & Laurens, S. (2020). Factors affecting the non-performing loans in Indonesia. Acounting, 6(2), 97–106. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2019.12.003 · DOI
  31. Keeley, M. C. (1990). Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking. American Economic Review, 80(5), 1183–1200. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006769(open in a new window)
  32. Keeton, W. R. (1999). Does faster loan growth lead to higher loan losses? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 84 2 , 57–76. https://www.proquest.com/openview/71ac5a538ac57394755a0ee54c60a2b2/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=47211(open in a new window)
  33. Keeton, W. R., & Morris, C. S. (1987). Why do banks loan losses differ. Economic Review, 72(5), 3–21. https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1255/1987-Why%20Do%20Banks'%20Loan%20Losses%20Differ%3F.pdf(open in a new window)
  34. Khan, M. A., Siddique, A., & Sarwar, Z. (2020). Determinants of non-performing loans in the banking sector in developing state. Asian Journal of Accounting Research, 5(1), 135–145. https://doi.org/10.1108/ajar-10-2019-0080 · DOI
  35. Louzis, D. P., Vouldis, A. T., & Metaxas, V. L. (2012). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business, and consumer loan portfolios. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36(4), 1012–1027. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.10.012 · DOI
  36. Makri, V., Tsagkanos, A., & Bellas, A. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans: The case of Eurozone. Panoeconomicus, 61(2), 193–206. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1402193M · DOI
  37. Marcus, A. J. (1984). Deregulation and bank financial policy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 8(4), 557–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(84)80046-1 · DOI
  38. Memdani, L. (2017). Macroeconomic and bank specific determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Indian Banking Sector. Studies in Business and Economics, 2(2), 125–135. https://doi.org/10.1515/sbe-2017-0026 · DOI
  39. Mondal, T. (2016). Sensitivity of non-performing loan to macroeconomic variables: Empirical evidence from Banking Industry in Bangladesh. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 16(4), 31–38. https://globaljournals.org/item/5883-sensitivity-of-non-performing-loan-to-macroeconomic-variables-empirical-evidence-from-banking-industry-of-bangladesh(open in a new window)
  40. Muhović, A., & Subić, J. (2019). Analysis and impact of main macro and microeconomic factors on the growth on NPL-s in the emerging financial markets. Ekonomika, 65(4), 21–30. https://doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika1904021M · DOI
  41. Ozili, P. K. (2019). Non-performing loans in European systemic and non-systemic banks. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(3), 409–424. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2019-0033 · DOI
  42. Rachid, S. (2019). The determinants of non-performing loans: Do institutions matter? A comparative analysis of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, 10(2), 96–108. https://doi.org/10.14505//jasf.v10.2(20).03 · DOI
  43. Radivojevic, N., & Jovovic, J. (2017). Examining of determinants of non-performing loans. Prague Economic Papers, 26(3), 300–316. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.615 · DOI
  44. Rajan, R. (1994). Why bank credit policies fluctuate. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2), 399–441. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118468 · DOI
  45. Rajha, K. S. (2016). Determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from the Jordanian banking sector. Journal of Finance and Bank Management, 4(1), 125–136. https://doi.org/10.15640/jfbm.v5n1a5 · DOI
  46. Roman, A., & Bilan, I. (2015). An empirical analysis of the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in EU28 banking sector. Revista Economica, 67(2), 108–127. http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/revista.economica/archive/6729roman_bilan.pdf(open in a new window)
  47. Sahut, J.-M., & Mili, M. (2011). Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 138–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.017 · DOI
  48. Salas, V., & Saurina, J. (2002). Credit risk in two institutional regimes: Spanish commercial and saving banks. Journal of Financial Service Research, 22(3), 203–224. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019781109676 · DOI
  49. Sharma, S., & Anand, A. (2018). Income diversification and bank performance: Evidence from BRICS nations. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 67(9), 1625–1639. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPPM-01-2018-0013 · DOI
  50. Shekhar, A., Bergthaler, W., Garrido, J. M., Ilyina, A., Jobst, A., Kang, K., Kovtun, D., Liu, Y., Monaghan, D., & Moretti, M. (2015). A strategy for resolving europes problem loan. In IMF staff discussion note 15/19. Intrnational montery fund 1–37. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513591278.006 · DOI
  51. Shingjergji, A. (2013). The impact of macroeconomic variables on the non performing loans in the Albanian Banking Sector during 2005-2012. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 2(9), 335–339. https://doi.org/10.5901/ajis.2013.v2n9p335 · DOI
  52. Shkodra, J., & Ismajli, H. (2017). Determinants of the credit risk in developing countries: A case of Kosovo banking sector. Banks and Bank Systems, 12(4), 90–97. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.12(4).2017.08 · DOI
  53. Shrieves, R. E., & Dhal, D. (1992). The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 16(2), 439–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(92)90024-T · DOI
  54. Škarica, B. (2014). Determinants of non-performing loans in Central and Eastern European countries. Financial Theory and Practice, 38(1), 37–59. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.38.1.2 · DOI
  55. Stiroh, K. J. (2004). Diversification in banking: Is noninterest income the answer? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36(5), 853–882. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0076 · DOI
  56. Swamy, V. (2012). Impact of macroeconomic and endogenous factors on non performing bank assets. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 9(1), 27–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2060753 · DOI
  57. Tabak, B. M., Guerra, S. M., Araújo Lima, E. J., & Jung Chang, E. (2007). The stability-concentration relationship in the Brazilian Banking System. Working Paper No. 145, Banco Central do Brasil, 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2007.04.004. · DOI
  58. Tanasković, S., & Jandrić, M. (2015). Macroeconomic and institutional determinants of non-performing loans. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 4(1), 47–62. https://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2015-0004 · DOI
  59. Teixeira, A. A., & Queirós, A. S. (2016). Economic growth, human capital and structural change: A dynamic panel data analysis. Research Policy, 45(8), 1636–1648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.04.006 · DOI
  60. Toader, T., Onofrei, M., Popescu, A.-I., & Andrieș, A. M. (2018). Corruption and banking stability: Evidence from emerging economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(3), 591–617. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1411257 · DOI
  61. Umar, M., & Sun, G. (2018). Determinants of non-performing loans in Chinese banks. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 12(3), 273–289. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABS-01-2016-0005 · DOI
  62. Vogiazas, S. D., & Nikolaidou, E. (2011). Investigating the determinants of nonperforming loans in the Romanian banking system: An empirical study with reference to the Greek crisis. Economics Research International, 2011, Article ID 214689, 214689:1–214689:13. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/214689 · DOI
  63. Yilmaz, B. (2019). Macroeconomic, institutional and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in emerging market economies: A dynamic panel regression analysis. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 8(3), 95–110. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2019-0026 · DOI
  64. Zeng, S. (2012). Bank non-performing loans (NPLS): A dynamic model and analysis in China. Modern Economy, 3(1), 100–110. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2012.31014 · DOI
  65. Zhou, Q., Faff, R., & Alpert, K. (2014). Bias correction in the estimation of dynamic panel models in corporate finance. Journal of Corporate Finance, 25(1), 494–513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.01.009 · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Alnabulsi, K., Kozarević, E., & Hakimi, A.
Affiliations
  • Széchenyi István University (HU)
  • University of Tuzla (BA)
  • University of Jendouba (TN)
Corresponding author
Alnabulsi, Khalil
Venue
Cogent Economics & Finance
Published
2022-09-21
Volume
10
Issue
1
ISSN
2332-2039 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4296538762
Cited by
73
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 23 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 1
FWCI
8.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Cogent Economics & Finance (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
The authors received no direct funding for this research
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Banking Sector Performance and Management
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Islamic Finance and Banking Studies
Keywords
non-performing loans, bank credit risk, determinants of NPL, 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, macroeconomic factors, institutional quality, bank-specific factors, MENA banks

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review